¿Quién ganará este sábado en Ames?

Newsmax analiza las posibilidades de los principales favoritos en el straw poll de Ames:

Mitt Romney: The former governonr of Massachusetts is the front-runner in national GOP polls and has raised the biggest war chest. But he is slipping and is already running behind Michele Bachmann in Iowa.

According to many of my friends, Romney is the establishment favorite of George W. Bush and Karl Rove, who are quietly sending their money and their people his way. Publicly, Romney is skipping the Ames, Iowa straw poll but behind the scenes his people are scrambling, hoping for what they call an "organic" surprise win.

Romney people in Iowa have been told to go to the polls and bring as many people as possible. It is a dangerous business, like having one foot in the boat and one on the dock.

If Romney wins, he will say that he did it with one hand tied behind his back. If he loses, he will say it didn't count because he didn't really try his best. But skipping the straw poll, which is the state party's most important fundraiser, will make him some enemies in Iowa and make winning the caucus next January that much harder.

Michele Bachmann: The Minnesota congresswoman is the Iowa front-runner. For a couple of years she faithfully audited Congressman Ron Paul's Thursday group. The wheels must have been turning. "If I can merge this new tea party movement with Evangelical Christian support, I could win Iowa." By all odds she has pulled it off.

Nowadays, Bachmann, who voted for the Bush bank bailout and represented the IRS in citizen audits, is portrayed by the national media as a tea party leader. She should win this Ames contest and win it big. Iowa is her home state, her birthplace. But if she doesn't win convincingly her brand may be in trouble. Former Alsaka Gov. Sarah Palin, or more likely, current Texas Gov. Rick Perry, may step in to pick up the pieces.

Tim Pawlenty: This may be the big surprise. According to a report from WHO the NBC television affiliate in Des Moines, the former governor of Minnesota has rented 50 buses and outside organizations have provided more. If this is true, Pawlenty may very well pull an upset and win the poll.

He is pumping all of his money into the contest. He was all over national television last week. And he is attacking Bachmann publicly. Pawlenty's Achilles' heel is his less than conservative record in Minnesota. As governor, he praised Mitt Romney's healthcare in Massachusetts and talked up the idea of mandated insurance for his state.

Ron Paul: He is called "the father of the tea party" and described by David Stockman as "the only presidential candidate who really understands the economy." Paul has surged this week and is now coming in third in most national polls. If he beats Romeny or Pawlenty it will be huge. If he beats Bachmann, it will be the talk of the nation for five months.

Paul's surge this week in Iowa is likely linked to the debt limit crisis and the Standard & Poor's downgrading of American credit. In 2003 Ron Paul predicted the housing bubble with its catastrophic impact on homeowners and mortgage lenders. More recently he was the first public figure to predict the credit downgrading. (...)