Florida, Florida, Florida

First Read:

Florida decided the presidential election in 2000; it helped push Barack Obama over the top in the 2008 general election; and it ended Mitt Romney’s presidential bid in the ’08 primaries. And about four months from now, it could once again decide who wins the GOP presidential nomination -- or at least determine how long the race will last. That’s why all the activity this week in the Sunshine State is so significant. Tomorrow night, the Republican candidates will gather in Orlando to participate in the sixth GOP presidential debate. On Friday, also in Orlando, the candidates will speak at a CPAC meeting in the state. And on Saturday comes the Florida GOP’s presidential straw poll.

*** Why is Florida so important? Just look at the expected calendar: If the Republican race turns into a two-man contest, Perry will probably win Iowa and South Carolina, while Romney will probably win New Hampshire and Nevada. Then comes Florida (as well as Arizona and Michigan). What’s more, many of the races on Super Tuesday (March 6) and the week after (March 13) are set to take place in the South, which could benefit Perry. So Florida -- if Romney wins it -- could give him the momentum he needs to withstand Super Tuesday and the week after. Or it could -- if Perry wins it -- end the nomination fight for good.

*** On the 2012 trail: And guess what: All the campaign-trail activity today is in the Sunshine State: Romney holds a town hall in Miami… Perry hits fundraisers in Ft. Lauderdale and Palm Beach… And Cain makes two stops in Florida.