La historia favorece la nominación de Perry

Según el New York Times:

Despite the concerns of the Republican establishment, some evidence suggests that the G.O.P. is especially likely to nominate a strong conservative in 2012.

In The Party Decides, the political scientists Martin Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel, and John Zaller argue that one thing is likely to make political parties nominate a centrist: losing. Specifically, the longer a party is out of power—that is, the more presidential elections it has lost in a row—the more likely it will nominate a moderate candidate. Parties that have been out of the White House for only a short time are more willing to nominate a candidate closer to the ideological pole.



The graph demonstrates that for each election that a party loses, its nominee get closer to the center of the scale. For example, in 1984 and again in 2004 the Democratic Party had been out of office for only one term. The party nominated Walter Mondale and John Kerry, respectively. But in 1992, having been out of office for 12 years, they nominated Bill Clinton, who was probably more centrist than Mr. Mondale or Mr. Kerry.

Of course, this evidence hardly portends that Rick Perry will win and Mitt Romney will lose. But it does suggest that 2012 could be a year in which the GOP does, to quote Mr. Cohen and colleagues, “test the limits of voter tolerance” by nominating a candidate like Mr. Perry.

Del mismo modo, los seguidores de Romney podrían citar que históricamente el GOP ha tenido tendencia a nominar al candidato que ya se había presentado antes (Dewey, Nixon, Reagan, Bush padre, Dole o McCain).

Eisenhower se postula apoyado por la maquinaria del nominado de 1944 y 1948. George W. Bush y Barry Goldwater serían las únicas excepciones claras desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial, pero no tuvieron como rival a nadie que se hubiera postulado en elecciones presidenciales anteriores. Y en el caso de Bush su apellido se había presentado unas cuantas veces. Así que en realidad Goldwater es el único que se hace con la nominación partiendo de cero.

Tomando esto en cuenta, la tradición favorecería a Romney (o a Ron Paul).