President Obama may well come to look back at the summer of 2011 as the halcyon days of high approval ratings despite his current 39-54 negative job approval in the Gallup Poll. The indications are that his ratings will continue to crater and are likely to drop even lower… and then lower again.Hace un par de semanas, Morris dijo que en estos momentos Obama estaría perdiendo la reelección por landslide (derrota aplastante), y también dijo que necesita un adversario vinculando al Congreso recordando lo útil que le fue a Clinton en el 96 tener enfrente al entonces Líder de la Mayoría del Senado (Dole).
Underlying his overall job approval rating is his approval rating, in the Gallup Poll, on specific issues. These internals suggest that even more trouble is ahead for the beleaguered president. On the economy — the central issue now by far — only 26% approve of the job he is doing while 71% disapprove. This rating of 26-71 contrasts with his 37-60 rating on the economy by Gallup as recently as May. When a president drops like that, he is in real trouble.
On job creation, Obama wins the approval of only 29% and the disapproval of 65% and on the federal deficit, he gets only 24% approval and 71% disapproval.
(...) So what is holding Obama’s overall job approval “up” at 39%? Not much. A residual personal favorability and a positive, friendly image are about all that are keeping his job approval from dropping into the 20s along with his rating on handling the only issue the country cares about. It is just a matter of time before his ratings drop into the mid and low thirties and possibly even lower.
With no economic improvement on the horizon and no clear Republican candidate to attack, Obama is likely to sink ever deeper into the abyss, so far that he will find it impossible to climb out when the actual fall election is upon us.
Así que aplicando esto al ruido de los últimos días podríamos concluir que la nominación de Paul Ryan ofrecería un rival que se ajustaría mejor al papel de villano en el relato que Obama quiere contar en 2012 a los electores.
2 comentarios:
Es una tontería, pero Truman y Johnson fueron presidentes reelegidos y posteriores a FDR. Aunque imagino que te referías a presidentes electos.
Por cierto, cuanto tiempo sin pasarme por aquí! Esto sigue igual de interesante que siempre.
Hola Gawyn.
Efectivamente, reelegir implica elegir por segunda vez. Por eso formalmente no se consideran reelecciones esos casos.
Por ejemplo Ford en el 76 tampoco se presenta a la reelección. Por eso no se le considera un Presidente que perdió la reelección aunque en realidad sí lo es, pero bueno.
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