domingo, 4 de noviembre de 2012

POLITICO/George Washington University: empate

POLITICO/George Washington University:
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken Monday through Thursday of this past week — shows the two presidential candidates tied at 48 percent.
It’s a fitting end to a presidential contest that has teetered on parity in recent months — Obama was ahead by one point in the Battleground poll last week, while Romney edged the president by two points the week before.

History shows that most of the three percent of remaining undecided voters probably won’t go to the polls on Tuesday, so the winner will be determined by which candidate can turnout more of their supporters in the 10 or so competitive states.
Esta semana los independientes aparecen divididos a partes iguales entre los dos candidatos. La  razón estaría en que algunos de los que se identificaban como independientes la semana pasada, ahora se identifican como más republicanos.
Independents are now split evenly, with Obama up 44 to 43 percent. A week ago, Romney had a 10-point advantage among this key demographic. The ranks of independents shrunk partly because more right-leaning voters now supporting Romney identified with the Republican Party.

Los dos candidatos tienen una favorabilidad idéntica.
Romney and Obama are now at parity on likability: 51 percent view Obama favorably while 50 percent view Romney favorably. Meanwhile, 45 percent of respondents view Obama unfavorably and 44 percent view Romney unfavorably.
Obama tiene una ligera ventaja en el voto temprano y Romney en el voto del mismo día de las elecciones, que es más numeroso.
Obama tiene una ligera ventaja en el voto temprano y Romney en el voto del mismo día de las elecciones, que es más numeroso.
A full 27 percent of those surveyed said they’ve already cast their ballot. Of them, Obama leads 50 to 48 percent.

Another 58 percent who have not voted yet described themselves as “extremely likely” to vote. Of them, Romney leads 49 to 46 percent.
Obama gana en la consideración de líder fuerte.

Obama expanded his edge by 2 points on which of the two candidates “shares your values” last week. He’s now favored 49 to 44 percent over Romney. The incumbent’s advantage on “being a strong leader” also held steady at 49 to 46 percent.
La economía sigue siendo un enorme problema para el Presidente.
Romney has continued to build up an edge on who can best get things done, the key emphasis of his closing argument in rallies – including two in Colorado on Saturday. One month ago, Obama and Romney tied at 46 percent on this measure — Romney now has the edge by six points, 49 to 43 percent.

Obama’s standing on the economy remains potentially perilously. A majority of respondents, 52 percent, disapprove of how he’s handled the issue. Romney has a four-point edge on the questions of which candidate would better grow the economy and create jobs, 50 to 46 percent, in both cases.
Among those who name pocketbook issues at their top priority — which is 71 percent of the electorate — Romney leads 56 percent to 41 percent.
Persiste la brecha de género.
The gender gap persists, but is narrower. Obama leads among women by 8 points, 53 to 45 percent. Romney leads among men by 8 points, 52 to 44 percent.
Among mothers — single and divorced — the race is tied at 48 percent apiece supporting Obama and Romney.
Obama gana en política exterior.
Obama holds a 10-point edge on foreign policy, 52 to 42 percent, despite the continuing drumbeat for more answers on the attacks on U.S. diplomatic outposts in Libya.
El martes se publicará el último resultado del Battleground Poll.

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