9 campañas en la reunión preparatoria del straw poll de Ames

The Iowa Republican:

Earlier this afternoon, the Republican Party of Iowa held its first meeting in advance of the Iowa Straw Poll. On the agenda for today’s meeting was introducing RPI staff to the various presidential campaigns, discussing the meeting process, and reviewing the initial rules and layout of the event.

The meeting provides us with the first glimpse of which campaigns are planning to participate in the event. In attendance at today’s meeting were representatives of Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann and Roy Moore. Also at the meeting were representatives for Mitt Romney’s campaign.

Thus far, Romney has indicated that he will not aggressively campaign in Iowa like he did four years ago. Many expect Romney to bypass this year’s straw poll, but with Mike Huckabee out of the picture, his campaign may either be giving Iowa a second look, or they are merely trying to gleam information from the other campaigns by attending the meeting.

The Iowa Straw Poll has historically played two significant rolls in the Iowa Caucus process. First, it winnows the field of candidates. In the last two contests, the candidates who finished in third place never made it to caucus day. In 1999, Elizabeth Dole’s disappointing performance ended her campaign, and the same was true for Sam Brownback in 2007.

The event also has proven to be an indicator of who will fare well in the Iowa caucuses. George H. W. Bush won the first Iowa Straw Poll in 1979, and he went on to win the caucuses that year. The only time that the top two finishers at the Straw Poll were not the top two finishers in the caucuses was in 1995, when Phil Gramm tied with Bob Dole. Gramm’s campaign ended when he lost the Louisiana Caucuses to Pat Buchanan right before Iowa.

While this straw poll meeting signifies a starting point for the planning the event, the date to keep an eye on is June 23rd. That is the date that campaigns will have to bid for space at the event. Only then will the party know who is actually committed to playing in the Straw Poll. (...)