jueves, 22 de marzo de 2012

Memo del Super PAC de Santorum: Romney no llegará a los 1,144

Memorándum de Red, White and Blue Fund:
We do not see a reasonable path for any of the current candidates to clinch the nomination prior to Tampa.

So far, 697 delegates have been allocated by either state party rule or state law to particular candidates. If each candidate continues to accumulate the 918 remaining delegates that will be bound at the same rate, no candidate will reach 1,144 going into Tampa.

Mitt Romney currently has 344 delegates by our count. If he continues to accumulate bound delegates at the same rate (49% of bound delegates) moving forward, he will add approximately 450 of the 918 delegates still to be bound. This would give Romney only 799 delegates going into Tampa.

Overall, in our view, this is where the race stands with Newt Gingrich still an active candidate:

Santorum: 193
Romney: 344
Gingrich: 160
Paul: 33
Unbound: 411

That the number of formally uncommitted delegates equals nearly half the total number of committed delegates to date demonstrates that this race for the GOP nomination remains indeterminate, unpredictable and uncertain.

There are 2,286 delegates for the convention and 1,145 delegates remain from states that have yet to vote. For Romney’s “mathematical inevitability” argument to hold, Romney would need to amass 70% of the remaining delegates in a way bound to him to secure the nomination. This is nearly impossible.

Within the remaining jurisdictions, there are only 1,145 delegates in states yet to hold their official events. Of those delegates, only a total of 918 of them are bound, while 227 of them will remain unbound by any party rule or state law. We have attached here a chart providing a summary of this information.

Overall, in our view, this is where the race stands:

Santorum: 193
Romney: 344
Gingrich: 160
Paul: 33
Unbound: 638
To be Bound: 918


(...) Mitt Romney cannot secure this nomination in advance of the convention, and RWB Fund will be there to support Rick Santorum all the way.
El análisis parte de la base de que tanto los superdelegados como los delegados de los estados que tienen sistema de caucus no están amarrados. Pueden comprometerse por palabra con un candidato, pero no están obligados a votarle, como sí lo están los delegados elegidos en primarias. En la teoría el análisis es válido, pero en la práctica es un poco irreal pensar que los delegados libres que se hayan comprometido por palabra con el candidato más votado lo vayan a abandonar en la convención para pasarse a otro con menos opciones.