lunes, 26 de marzo de 2012

Ranking de vicepresidenciables

Chris Cillizza ha hecho su primer ranking de posibles compañeros de ticket de Romney. La lista no se apoya en ninguna información; es sólo un pasatiempo.
Before we get to our first (of many) rankings of the 10 men and women in contention to be Romney’s choice let’s go through two big caveats.

1. The vice presidential pick is made by a very small number of people — see “Game Change” — which complicates any attempt to handicap the process.

2. It’s still quite early to talk about vice presidential picks, given that Romney won’t likely name his selection until mid to late August. (The Republican National Convention will be held in Tampa, Florida beginning on Aug. 27, which means the pick will be made by then.)


1. Marco Rubio: Debating about who the frontrunner is to be the vice presidential pick is sort of like debating about who is the best soccer player in the world. There’s no real debate. In soccer, it’s Barcelona’s Lionel Messi. (Don’t believe us? Watch this. Then read this.). In the veepstakes, it’s Rubio. The case for Rubio is simple and close to conclusive. He’s Hispanic, giving the GOP an opportunity to reestablish some sort of foothold in that electorally critical community. He’s from Florida, a major swing state. He’s a tea party favorite thanks to destruction of moderate Governor Charlie Crist in a Senate primary in 2010. And, he’s young; at 42 years old, Rubio is 23 years Romney’s junior. Rubio’s not perfect — we hear whispers that his time in the state legislature could be mined by a good opposition researcher — but he’s a clear number one choice in our Line.

2. Bob McDonnell: McDonnell is the popular governor of perhaps the swingiest state, er, Commonwealth in the country. His 2009 gubernatorial campaign proved that if Republicans focused unswervingly on a jobs and the economy — “Bob’s for Jobs” — message that they could win major elections in toss-up states. McDonnell has also been the most outspoken about his interest in the v.p. job; “We’ll see,” he responded when pressed about his interest in the gig. (Worth noting: Because of Virginia’s odd one-term limit on its governor, McDonnell will be out of a job at the end of 2013 no matter what.) McDonnell’s recent involvement in a national controversy about trans-vaginal ultrasounds has drawn some negative attention to him but he remains a major player in the veepstakes.

3. Rob Portman: Portman is the Pawlenty of the 2012 vice presidential sweepstakes. The Ohio Senator is the safe pick, having proven himself as an able candidate during his 2010 Senate victory and a strong surrogate in helping lead Romney to victory in the Ohio primary earlier this month. Portman’s prior experience — he served as the head of the Office of Management and Budget in the Bush Administration — is a double-edged sword for Romney. Portman is unquestionably an expert on budget matters but he was also part of an Administration that drastically ballooned the national debt. Portman seems virtually certain to be in the final three when decision time comes for Romney.

4. Bobby Jindal: The Louisiana governor is widely seen as a candidate for president in 2016 (if Romney comes up short this November) or 2020 (if Romney wins). Reelected to a second term last November with a remarkable 67 percent of the vote, Jindal remains one of the most popular — and conservative — governors in the country. If Romney picked Jindal, the Louisiana governor would make history as the first Indian-American on a national party ticket. One wonders whether Jindal’s 2009 Republican response — the last time he was exposed to a national audience — worries the Romney veep pickers.

5. Susana Martinez: Martinez may be the least well known name on this list. She was elected with relatively little fanfare in 2010 as the governor of New Mexico, the first Hispanic woman governor — Democrat or Republican — in the country. Romney has floated Martinez’s name as a potential vice president and the Land of Enchantment is regarded as a swing state this fall. Still, Martinez was the Dona Anna County District Attorney less than four years ago and may not yet be ready for the national spotlight.

6. Chris Christie: The New Jersey governor may well be the most popular politician in the Republican party at the moment — thanks to his relentlessly confrontational style and regular-guy manner. He also endorsed Romney immediately after deciding that the presidential race wasn’t for him. (We also think Christie’s 2013 reelection bid will be very tough, meaning he may be in the market for a different job before then.) Of course, Christie’s personality is more built to be the man, not the man standing next to the man. (Sidenote: Always remember, in the immortal words of Ric Flair, that “to be the man, you got to beat the man.” So true.) And, there’s no way that Christie on the ticket delivers New Jersey for Romney.

7. John Thune: On the one hand, Thune is a Plains state (South Dakota, to be exact) Senator with good looks and an almost-impeccable conservative reputation. On the other, he’s a creature of the Senate — he’s a member of the party’s leadership in the world’s greatest deliberative body — and there are questions about how much he wants it after he took a pass on a presidential bid this time around. Which argument is more compelling to Team Romney?

8. Tim Pawlenty: Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor, endorsed Romney shortly after getting out of the race in his own right in late August 2011. Pawlenty’s best attribute is his loyalty; his worst is his decided lack of charisma. While Pawlenty would clearly be a safe pick — that’s the main reason he was one of the finalists as Arizona Sen. John McCain’s running mate in 2008 — it’s hard to imagine that putting Tpaw on the ticket would generate any real excitement either among the GOP base or with independents.

9. Mitch Daniels: Like Ryan, Daniels has built a national reputation for speaking uncomfortable truths on debt/spending issues. And, like Ryan, the Indiana governor turned down a race for president this year despite a not-insignificant amount of evidence that he would have entered the contest as the favorite. It’s very hard to say “no” to an offer to serve as vice president but if anyone could do it, Daniels would be the guy.

10. Paul Ryan: The Wisconsin Republican House Member’s dream, according to those who know him well, is to be the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee in 2015. (Weird, we know.) In the past two years, he has turned down a Senate race where he would have been a clear favorite and a presidential contest that he was being heavily courted to join. All of that leads us to believe he isn’t interested in being the pick. That said, he is from a swing state, is beloved by the policy wonk side of the party and is the lead face on the issue of the day in the country (debt and spending).

4 comentarios:

JH dijo...

Si Romney eligiese a alguien como Portman o McDonell sería algo curioso: dos hombres con pinta de altos ejecutivos, sería una apuesta de eficacia de cara a los independientes. En cambio la de Rubio una maniobra para ganarse a las bases, que seguramente en lo que le falta. No sé si algún otro conservador menos conocido podría hacerlo también. Quizás entre los gobernadores de algún estado pequeño del Sur o el Medio Oeste podría haber alguno.

Por cierto, esto creo que ya lo pregunte hace algún tiempo, pero visto como están las primarias, me parece una pregunta lógica. ¿A quién elegiría Santorum? Un conservador no podría ser, para eso ya está él. Puede ser algún conservador fiscal, que equilibre su perfil social-cultural. O algún moderado pero que pueda caer bien a las bases.

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

No se habla demasiadod e Jindal pero puede ser el gran tapado de Romney. Es muy conservador, tiene su punto exótico, y a la vez es una opción muy segura, un tipo con mucho peso intelectual, y con experiencia en washington porque antes de ser Gobernador fue miembro de la Cámara de Representantes.

Además, es un auténtico experto en política sanitaria, y podría serle de mucha utilidad a Romney para construir un argumento creíble contra el ObamaCare. Jindal fue Secretario de Sanidad de Louisiana en lso años 90, con sólo 25 años. Y después fue asistente del Secretario de Sanidad de EEUU entre 2001 y 2003.

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

Aunque en Louisiana cuentan que tiene un equipo muy ambicioso y agresivo que ya está pensando en las presidenciales de 2016. No sé en qué medida estaría dispuesto a arriesgarse a ir de número dos este año si la victoria es incierta.

Anónimo dijo...

Estimado Antxon:

El problema saber si Jindal se ha repuesto ya del batacazo de la contra réplica al discurso de Obama sobre el Estado de la Unión en 2009. No obstante me parece un candidato atractivo para movilizar a la base como también para ayudar a ganar estados que pueden ser decisivos como Colorado, Nevada e includo Nuevo México.

De los diez de esta lista pude ser cualquiera aunque no creo que opte por Portman o McDonnell.

Las apuestas seguras son Rubio y Christie y, a mi modesta opinión si hay un tapado pudiera ser Ryan aunque veremos como se desenvuelve con el asunto de defícit y el presupuesto.

Ojalá Romney, elija quien elihja, acierte. ¿Habéis visto hoy la reunión entre Obama y Mederev? Es urgente que Romney gane las elecciones generales y sea Presidente.

Un abrazo muy fuerte para todos

Casto Martín