Rumor: todo apunta a Pawlenty

Gregory J. Flugaur (Race42012.com) dice que su confidente, The Eagle, cree que Pawlenty será el elegido.

There is only so many hours that Boston has before election night. They have lots of resources but only so many hours, days before the election, you know what I mean? Look at where and how they are spending their time. Mitt has spent his first swing, tour, whatever you want to call it in PA, NH, IA, MI, OH & WI. Those are Northern states, all of them. But look more closely and you will see that all the counties that Mitt will go to in this swing are blue counties, all of them went to Obama narrowly. Mitt is attacking the slightly blue regions of rural, Northern counties.

What does that tell you? Mitt’s internals see beautiful things in Rock County (WI) and the others (Counties). Mitt needs to spend no time in regions of Red (GOP counties). So Mitt’s campaign is all about targeting these Northern democratic counties that are starting to not only walk away from Obama, but to run away. Mitt’s team knows what they are doing. They see their internals, they see great weakness in Obama in these counties. Who helps in these counties?

Christie? Yes, but where was Christie? He wasn’t in PA was he? Yeah, that whole thing went south about 4 weeks ago. Sorry dude, it just did. Who else helps in these counties? Who for sure helps? Ryan? Yep. Portman?.. maybe. But I said earlier, Portman is not a Romney guy. Portman will not be selected. That bubble has been pricked. Does Jindal help in the counties I’m talking about. Yes, I think he does actually. We will get to Jindal later. But he comes 2nd in this process. That is my call. Does Rubio help in Rock County? That is a tougher one. But Tim does help. Tim does not scare off the Suburban voters of the North, and he is well liked by rural voters. Tim is a 2nd term Governor of Minnesota, blue, blue, blue.

OK, now let’s move away from that. How important was it that Tim was put into the bus (the Romney swing state tour)? Was it really that important that Tim spoke for Mitt in NH & PA? No, not really. But what gets to me is how closed lipped Tim’s people are in all of this. Tim had some staff with him. They were with him in both states. That says something right there. Now I know I’m going all over the place with these comments so I’m sorry none of this makes sense. There is another thing that plays right into Tim becoming the VP selection. Tim is not a Governor right now. He does not bring the worries to Boston that a Bobby or Chris (Christie) would give. Christie is in a tight budget battle, and Bobby, well, everything is cool, but you never know. Mitt likes certainty. Tim gives him that.

Ok, here is the thing. Again, there are only so many hours, that is the one resource you can’t increase. Boston is way ahead of schedule on everything when it comes to the VP process. Why? Because they want maximum time with Mitt and whoever, they want maximum time in fundraising for the VP guy. They want the VP to establish himself. They want the VP, well, they want to quickly get through the press vetting. They want to quickly set up a message with their VP that they can sell with Mitt. Boston can’t increase their time on the back end, but they can on the front end. Don’t get me wrong, I do not think they have made their final decision yet, But they only have about 4 names in the hopper. They have 4 names on a digital file on one of their computers with their design team ready to be kicked off to their printer. They have the ink paid for, the ink used for the side of the plane. Boston is moving, moving, moving. They want to spend as much time as possible in destroying the Obama campaign, not spending time on this. I mean, they are spending time on this, but they want maximum time on the back-end. What does that mean? Mitt has less time to get to know these other guys. Boston does not want their VP selection to go through some sort of class in Boston to get in step with Mitt. That takes time, resources. Tim fulfills the plan in all of that. A Tim Pawlenty selection is time not wasted. Up and running from the time of the announcement.

Lo que dice tiene lógica. Boston da la impresión de estar más que satisfecho con la trayectoria actual de la campaña. En ese escenario, la selección del running-mate se convierte en una molestia. Lo que quisieran es no tener que incorporar a nadie y mantener el rumbo sin novedad. ¿Y qué sería lo más parecido a no elegir a NADIE? Elegir a Tim Pawlenty. Perfil discreto, modales suaves, hombre de clase media, no rico, ya es una presencia habitual en la campaña, en el último año ha tratado regularmente con los medios, y se conoce todo de él porque ya fue candidato a Presidente. No causaría ninguna impresión, y su selección sería noticia por poco tiempo, tras lo cual la atención volvería a la economía de Obama.

Además, como comentaba el otro día, Boston está descubriendo la enorme ventaja que supone que Romney sea un ex-Gobernador en lugar de un Gobernador en ejercicio. Y puede que busquen lo mismo en el número dos para evitar cualquier eventualidad; alguien que no ocupe un cargo público actualmente.

Yo pensaba en Bobby Jindal, pero este último punto es el que me genera dudas. Pensad por un momento en un ejemplo: meses de agosto y septiembre, proclives a la formación de huracanes en el golfo de México. Tienes a un Gobernador de Louisiana en ejercicio en el ticket. Algo incontrolable como la naturaleza puede hacer descarrilar la disciplina de tu mensaje de campaña. Cualquier Gobernador en ejercicio puede "contaminar" la campaña con cualquier conflicto de cualquier tipo que salte en su estado. Lo mismo un Senador que se vea forzado a votar en medio de la campaña una legislación que comprometa el mensaje de Boston. Y conociendo la meticulosidad de Team Romney, es muy posible que todo esto tenga un gran peso en la decisión.