El impacto del Caucus de Iowa

Des Moines Register repasa la historia del Caucus de Iowa:

(...) THE BEGINNING

Iowa’s caucuses weren’t always an early test of presidential candidate strength. They became important because, in 1968, controversies over the Vietnam War tore apart the Democratic Party. Demonstrations at the national convention in Chicago that year turned violent, and the party established a commission to open up party affairs to include more people.

The Democrats adopted a series of rules requiring that plenty of notice be given about county, district and state conventions — and that party members be given plenty of time to file and debate platform resolutions.

To accomplish this and still hold their state convention in June, Iowa Democratic leaders decided to hold their caucuses in late January. They also realized such a start would give Iowa the first contest that resulted in delegates to the party’s national convention.

1972

A young campaign manager and an obscure presidential candidate decided to exploit the new rules. Gary Hart was running South Dakota Sen. George McGovern’s anti-war presidential campaign, and the two were looking for a way to get some media attention before the important New Hampshire primary.

They thought the vote taken at the Iowa caucuses in 1972 would provide him with that attention. It worked.

McGovern organized in Iowa and finished close behind the front-runner, Maine Sen. Edmund Muskie. A handful of national political reporters, led by R.W. “Johnny” Apple of the New York Times, wrote stories about it. McGovern’s strong second-place showing surprised them, and they gave McGovern the big boost of media attention he was seeking.

This was also the first early example of the so-called expectations game that candidates play. They hope to do better than reporters and politicians expect, which garners extensive media attention to their “surprise.” A finish that is expected, or that was worse than expected, has sometimes proved harmful.

1976

An unknown former Georgia governor, Jimmy Carter, expanded McGovern’s strategy, campaigned extensively in Iowa and won. After he won the presidency, other candidates adopted his Iowa strategy, and it has served as a template for many candidates ever since. Unknown or obscure candidates try to use a good showing in Iowa to slingshot themselves into national prominence.

Also in 1976, Iowa Republicans agreed to hold their caucuses on the same night as the Democrats, primarily to capture some of the media attention. President Gerald Ford’s narrow victory over Ronald Reagan in a straw poll in sample precincts was later seen as an early sign of Ford’s weakness as a candidate.

1980

Republican George H.W. Bush upset front-runner Ronald Reagan in Iowa’s caucuses. Reagan and Bush fought a long battle for the GOP nomination. After Reagan won, he turned to Bush as his running mate to unify the party. Once again, Iowa was credited with giving Bush an early boost to national prominence.

On the Democratic side, President Carter used the contest to fight off a challenge from Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts. That divisive fight weakened Carter, who lost the November election to Reagan.

1984

The Democrats were looking for a candidate to challenge Reagan. Walter Mondale, from neighboring Minnesota, was a heavy favorite and won Iowa. A question facing the Democrats was whether any of the other candidates would emerge to challenge him for the nomination. Gary Hart, then a Colorado senator, finished second, and the surge from that finish helped him win the New Hampshire primary eight days later. Mondale narrowly won the nomination that year.

The results illustrated how front-running candidates can’t afford to take Iowa for granted and how obscure candidates can parlay a good showing in Iowa into more good showings in subsequent contests.

1988

Both parties were looking for nominees, and the parade of candidates to Iowa began in earnest shortly after the 1984 election. After the 1986 midterm elections, a presidential candidate was a regular feature somewhere in Iowa throughout 1987.

The 1980s saw hard economic times in rural America, and that played heavily on the outcome of the 1988 race. In both parties, caucus-goers went for candidates from neighboring states. Republicans chose Sen. Robert Dole of Kansas.

Democrats gave the nod to Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt. The No. 2 Democratic finisher was another neighbor, Illinois Sen. Paul Simon.

The 1988 campaign also saw the growth of conservative and evangelical strength inside the Iowa GOP. Christian broadcasting executive Pat Robertson mounted an extensive grass-roots campaign in Iowa among Republican conservative and evangelical voters and beat then-Vice President George H.W. Bush for second place.

But Gephardt and Dole didn’t last long. Both were defeated in the New Hampshire primary and ultimately lost their party’s nominations, to Bush and Michael Dukakis. Their defeats took some of the sheen off the caucuses, and many political observers predicted the 1992 caucuses would not be as important as they once had been.

1992

The caucuses were indeed less important in 1992, but for a different reason. Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin sought the Democratic presidential nomination. Harkin had hoped a big win in his home-state caucuses would give him a big boost of media attention and financial contributions.

Instead, Harkin’s candidacy prompted the other Democratic contenders to bypass the Feb. 10 caucuses in favor of the Feb. 18 New Hampshire primary. While Harkin got 77 percent of the caucus vote, few observers were impressed. His candidacy faltered with a fourth-place showing in New Hampshire.

The Republicans were renominating Bush and had no caucus contest.

1996

The Iowa caucuses rebounded in significance. Eventually, eight GOP contenders campaigned hard in Iowa. While caucuses in Alaska and Louisiana were held ahead of Iowa’s, those had much smaller turnouts.

Kansas Sen. Dole was the early front-runner but won a narrow victory. The caucuses played their traditional role of narrowing the field of candidates. Only the top three finishers in Iowa — Dole, commentator Patrick Buchanan and former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander — were viable contenders in New Hampshire.

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