Los cinco favoritos de Jonah Goldberg

En su último artículo, el columnista conservador Jonah Goldberg (National Review) llega a la conclusión de que hay cinco favoritos para la nominaicón republicana: Mitt Romney por ser el mejor organizado; Mitch Daniels como el preferido de los intelectuales; Sarah Palin por tener más devotos que nadie; Newt Gingrich porque dominará los debates; y Tim Pawlenty porque es el que menos disgusta a todos.

Expone diversas razones para descartar otros nombres:

(...) Earlier this year, there was a lot of talk about Petraeus running. But then the Army general gave a lot of dull, substantive speeches in which he didn’t say anything about ethanol or the Hawkeye State’s divine right to hold the first-in-the-nation contest. Seems like he prefers Kandahar to Ames.

Rubio, Ryan, and Jindal, respectively the incoming junior senator from Florida, the incoming chairman of the House Budget Committee, and the governor of Louisiana, are all wisely sitting out the presidential contest to concentrate on their to-do lists, though the three golden boys of the GOP are ripe vice-presidential picks.

Former Florida governor Jeb Bush and the current governors of New Jersey, Virginia, and Texas — Christie, McDonnell, and Perry — probably aren’t running, though they all enjoy deep reservoirs of admiration on the right, particularly Christie, whose YouTube videos are passed around like samizdat. Also, there’s growing buzz that Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and a fierce defender of his top-tier contender status, may not run because he’s got a big new contract with Fox News in the works.

DeMint, the South Carolina senator and the Tea Party’s man on the inside, has said he’s not running but acts as if he might be. Meanwhile, Gregg, New Hampshire’s retiring senator, acts likes he’s not running but hasn’t ruled it out. (If he did run as New Hampshire’s favorite son, it would complicate things for Romney.) Pence, the Indiana representative, definitely wants to run but now may switch to the Indiana governorship instead.

Barbour, perhaps the sharpest political operator with a natural Southern constituency in a Southern-dominated party, could be a front-runner (and a hilarious and adept debate opponent for Obama), but his plans remain murky.

(...) Paul’s issues — gutting the Federal Reserve, shrinking government, foreign-policy noninterventionism, drug legalization — are the ripest they’ve ever been in the GOP. But, at 75, that’s just about the only way “ripe” and “Ron Paul” can be used together in a sentence.

Thune will probably discover early that his Senate colleagues’ telling him to run isn’t necessarily a compliment. In many respects, Thune is the GOP version of John Kerry: a candidate with very presidential hair who seems “electable” despite not having done much of anything.

Bolton, the famously mustachioed and gruff former U.N. ambassador (like Gingrich, a colleague of mine at the American Enterprise Institute, where I’m a visiting fellow), is a tireless and brilliant guy, but he’s never run for federal office. Presumably he wants to highlight national-security issues and, I hope, duke it out with Ron Paul.

Cain, the former chief executive of Godfather’s Pizza, is a charismatic superstar on the Tea Party circuit and in many rank-and-file conservative circles. An African-American who likes to joke about his “dark-horse candidacy,” he’s a lot more than merely a sane Alan Keyes. But it’s hard to imagine him amounting to more than an exciting also-ran.

Johnson, the former New Mexico governor and a keynoter at last weekend’s KushCon II, will focus attention on pot legalization. Meanwhile, Santorum, a former senator, will focus attention on Rick Santorum. (...)