David Frum no creee que ocurra:
(...) They’re bluffing. Left-wing Democrats are muttering about a primary challenge to President Obama in 2012. Some propose Howard Dean, others Russell Feingold.
The president shouldn’t worry overmuch.
Unlike Kennedy 1980, Reagan 1976, McCarthy 1968, neither Dean nor Feingold will run to win. They would run (if they run at all) to make a point, to draw a little blood, like McCloskey in 1972 or Buchanan in 1992. As 2012 approaches, Democrats will rethink their current warm feelings about Mitt Romney and demote him from The Responsible Republican (TM) to History’s Greatest Monster (TM). The Obama White House will corral wandering Democrats with deftly chosen culture war issues (DADT likely only the first in the series). As voting day approaches, white liberals in Iowa and New Hampshire will get cold feet. So for that matter will Feingold – sorry, that’s Ambassador Feingold – and Dean, both of whom will decide that they’d rather eat lunch in this town again.
Liberals take pride in the high educational attainments of their segment of the American electorate. Bad news: that means their segment can count. And the math says, primary challenge in January = Republican victory in November. They won’t do it, Obama knows they won’t do it, and they know that Obama does. (...)
Jennifer Rubin lanza un nombre:
(...) I admit I was mulling over the possible primary contenders with a conservative friend (one of the cleverest of the lot) yesterday. It couldn't be a Blue Dog, because what could be more Blue Doggish than agreeing to extend the Bush tax cuts? There won't be room to run to Obama's right in a primary. It has to be someone semi-credible, in order to get the president to pay attention to a potential challenge. I've got the candidate: Jerry Brown.
Brown bedeviled Bill Clinton in 1992. He's got nothing to lose (really, winning the governorship of California is a heck of a lot better than being governor of California these days), and he's actually won elections and held office. Moreover, he is just savvy enough to run left (e.g. promise to pass Don't Ask/Don't Tell by executive order, come out in favor of gay marriage) and run right (e.g. he was a tough-on-crime mayor, so none of this dillydallying with terrorists). (...)
Ross Douthat cree que la gran amenaza para Obama no son los grandes nombres:
(...) What Obama has to worry about isn’t a Dean or a Russ Feingold or an Evan Bayh — or, the fantasies of pundits notwithstanding, a Hillary Clinton. He needs to worry about a liberal version of Pat Buchanan in 1992: Somebody with name recognition and no broader political ambitions, who can serve as a conduit for Democratic discontent in Iowa and New Hampshire. Somebody who could embarrass the White House by taking, say, 30 percent of the vote in an early primary, and congratulate themselves on a job well done. Somebody with a high profile, a silver tongue, and a flair for melodrama, who would attract media attention just by throwing their hat into the ring. (...)
Daily Kos plantea una encuesta:
(...) So who should challenge our so-called "Party Leader"? I have a few ideas... none of them are great so feel free to comment and add your own:
Howard Dean - He's inspired many of us. We love him even when the inevitable gaffes come. He lands on the correct side of most of these policy debates with only a couple of notable exceptions. On the flip side his likelihood of winning a general election might be a little low.
Al Gore - His credibility has gone way up since "An Inconvenient Truth". I think he has the chops to win an election and also be a great president. The only downside is a sex scandal in Portland that would come to heavy scrutiny were he to challenge Obama.
Russ Feingold - Wouldn't it be amazing to have someone like Russ Feingold as our president? He supports the progressive agenda, he's fiscally responsible, a seasoned and thoughtful politician. I believe he has however already publicly stated he won't challenge Obama in 2012.
George Clooney - A great progressive and a decent actor, with the speaking skills and presidential air to win. Downside is he has no experience and would get hammered to hell for it. Maybe he needs to be a Governor somewhere before jumping in this ring... unless the Republicans nominate Sarah Palin. I'll lay down money on Clooney in that match up!
Its not a great list, but its a start. Who would you run against Obama in 2012? (...)
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