lunes, 5 de marzo de 2012

Encuestas finales de PPP en Ohio, Georgia y Tennessee

Public Policy Polling:
The news is good for Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and bad for Rick Santorum in PPP's final polls of the three biggest Super Tuesday states.

In Ohio, Romney leads with 37% to 36% for Santorum, 15% for Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.

In Tennessee, Santorum leads with 34% to 29% for Romney, 27% for Gingrich, and 8% for Paul.

In Georgia, Gingrich leads with 47% to 24% for Romney, 19% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

A week ago Santorum had a huge lead in Tennessee, a decent sized one in Ohio, and seemed like he had a good chance for second in Georgia. Now he's barely holding on in Tennessee, ever so slightly behind in Ohio, and seems doomed for third in Georgia.

Romney's fortunes have swung the other direction. What was looking like a runner up finish in Ohio is looking more like a win with each passing day. He has an outside chance at pulling off an upset win in Tennessee. And it looks like he'll finish a solid second in Georgia.

The news for Gingrich is good too. It's been expected he would win Georgia, but it looks now like he could even hit the 50% mark. And he's pulled within striking distance of Santorum and Romney in Tennessee.

-In Ohio, late deciding voters are breaking toward Romney. He leads Santorum 40-28 with those who have made up their minds in the last few days or the last week. He's also going into election day with the lead. He's up 41-34 on Santorum with those who have already voted- that cushion from early voters helped put him over the top in Michigan last week. Romney's most important group of supporters in Ohio is seniors, with whom he has a 51-28 lead.

-In Tennessee, Santorum's saving grace may end up being early voters. 25% of the electorate has already voted and with those folks he's at 39% to 32% for Romney and 23% for Gingrich. Also working to Santorum's considerable advantage in Tennessee is that we find an electorate that is 66% Evangelicals, and they support Santorum 39-27 over Gingrich with Romney at 25%. As in Ohio, the late momentum is on Romney's side. He's up 38-34 on Santorum with those who've decided in the last few days or the last week, so if that continues on through Tuesday he'll have some chance at the upset.

-In Georgia, Gingrich is basically winning every group of the electorate. 66% of Republicans in the state have a favorable opinion of him to only 27% with a negative one. And although he now lives in Virginia, he's still embraced as a native son. 71% of voters consider him to be a Georgian to only 22% who do not.

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