miércoles, 21 de marzo de 2012

Magellan Strategies: Santorum, favorito en Louisiana



Magellan Strategies:
Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an autodial survey of 2,018 likely Republican Primary voters in Louisiana. The survey was conducted March 19th, 2012 and has a margin of error of +/-­‐2.18%. This survey was not paid for by any campaign or political organization.

The survey finds former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum leading his closest opponent by 13 points (Santorum 37%/Romney 24%/Gingrich 21%/Paul 3%/others 9%/undecided 6%). With only 5 days until the primary, Santorum’s strong image (72%favorable/20% unfavorable) and relatively few undecided voters (6%) puts him in a strong position to win a plurality in the Louisiana GOP Primary. Santorum leads among both men and women, among all age groups and in all 6 congressional districts.

Though currently running second, Romney’s struggling image could potentially hinder any growth potential. Currently, Romney’s image is 49% favorable to 41% unfavorable. Though Gingrich appears to be in the Republican primary race until the convention, his candidacy clearly hurts Santorum’s position in Louisiana. In a two person race, Santorum leads Romney by 21 points (55% Santorum/34% Romney/11% undecided). Sixty-­‐one percent of Gingrich’s support on the multi candidate ballot moves to Santorum on the two candidate ballot. Only 22% of Gingrich’s support goes to Romney.
* La votación de Louisiana es una primaria, no un caucus. Estaba equivocado. No sé por qué tenía la idea de que era un caucus. Ya lo he corregido en la barra de la derecha del blog. De todos modos es una primaria cerrada, así que no podrán participar los independientes, sólo los republicanos.