martes, 28 de agosto de 2012

Boston y Chicago, confiados en la victoria



Mark Halperin (TIME) dice que la confianza de los dos bandos en la victoria sigue siendo la misma que hace tres meses:
Romney, Team Obama concedes, has shown himself to be a better candidate than expected. He has displaced Barack Obama as the most prolific fundraiser in the nation’s history. He has, with a few exceptions, exhibited discipline and precision in the months since he secured the nomination. He showed genuine boldness and purpose with his veep pick (even while giving the Obamans ammunition in the process). And he has improved his performance on the stump.

Yet the White House feels the balance remains on its side, especially where it counts: in the key battleground states. Team Obama is certain that, barring a national collapse, Michigan and Pennsylvania are locked up for the incumbent—a reality acknowledged by a number of Romney senior aides. The Obamans see Romney as fatally flawed in Ohio, with his venture capital background, opposition to the auto rescue, and overseas financial holdings. Even North Carolina, which some handicappers have moved safely to Romney’s column, remains in play, the re-elect believes, because of its strong grassroots organization, which the Democrats expect to grow further during their Charlotte convention.

Naturally, Romney’s more sanguine advisers reject this stacked deck, believing the Obamans are whistling past the political graveyard. Team Romney remains convinced that voters are craving a more concrete form of hope and change, that the anemic economy and the President’s failure to crack the fifty percent mark in most polls means he is destined to lose, maybe big, in November.

After I wrote my piece in May, some conservative writers suggested I was being hopelessly naïve, bluffed by a blustering White House with little chance of victory, blind to the realities around them. Perhaps that is true, although I’ve known many of my sources, on both sides, for years. Their dueling hypotheses these past three months have not wavered: The Romney folks have made a solid a case of why they will win, but the Obama people don’t seem to believe they can lose.