domingo, 28 de octubre de 2012

Cómo ven Ohio en Boston

Byron York (The Washington Examiner) ha hablado con gente de Team Romney:
After discussions with various experts inside and outside the Romney circle, it appears the thinking is roughly like this:

On one hand, Ohioans have seen a different campaign from Americans in most other states.  People in Ohio have been subjected to an unprecedented amount of campaigning, both from the candidates in person and especially in the form campaign advertising.  And its been going on quite a while.  So it is to be expected that there might be some differences between polls in Ohio and polls nationally, which also reflect areas with far less active campaigning.

On the other hand, Team Romney believes there is a fairly close relationship between the national polls and the polls in Ohio. Romney aides are highly skeptical of any results from Ohio that are several points out of line with the national polls.  For example, if Romney is up two nationally, they would find it very hard to believe a poll that shows him down by five in Ohio — to them, that seven-point gap just seems too big.

Further, they believe that the national and state numbers ultimately move together, and that if national numbers move, the state numbers will eventually move, too.  They concede that intense campaigning in individual states can change perhaps two or three points, but they believe there is still a fundamental relationship between national and state poll numbers.  They discount the possibility of conflicting popular vote/Electoral College results as extremely remote.

Republican experts who are not affiliated with the campaign agree.

(...) A number of well-connected pollsters expect that in the end, Ohio’s results will be fairly close to the national results.  If Mitt Romney wins the national vote, they expect to see him win Ohio, too.  And they would be very surprised to see a close national race and a blowout in Ohio, or a close race in Ohio and a blowout nationally.

(...) Team Romney views the race as closer than the 2.3 percent Obama margin in the RealClearPolitics average would indicate.  And not only is it closer than 2.3 percent, they say, there is also the issue of Romney’s lead among independents in several polls.  In past Ohio elections, they argue, the candidate who won independents also won the election. Obama, John Kasich, Ted Strickland, Rob Portman — they’re all winning candidates who fit that pattern.  So watch the independents, Team Romney argues, in hopes the race will eventually line up their way.