lunes, 29 de octubre de 2012

POLITICO/George Washington University: empate estadístico



POLITICO:
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from last Monday through Thursday — shows Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percent, 49 to 48 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but reflects a race that remains statistically tied.
Obama estaría ganando el voto temprano por 8 puntos; hace cuatro años a estas alturas lo estaba ganando por 15 puntos.

Obama leads by 8 points among those who have already voted, 53 to 45 percent. These early voters represent 15 percent of the electorate, with many more expected to vote in the next few days — though Hurricane Sandy could change that.
El entusiasmo sigue favoreciendo a Romney.
But the GOP nominee maintains a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Sixty percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 73 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 9 points, 53 to 44 percent.

By any measure, the race is neck-and-neck: 43 percent say they will “definitely” vote Romney, compared to 42 percent who say the same of the president.

Continúa la brecha de género.

(...) Obama leads among women by 11 points, 54 to 43 percent.

(...) Men, meanwhile, support Romney over Obama by 12 points, 55 to 43 percent.
Romney gana entre los independientes.
Romney, though, is again winning independents. Driven largely by the economy, the Republican now leads with this set of swing voters by 10 points, 50 to 40 percent.
Los votantes confían más en Romney en economía.
And the economy threatens to derail the president as much as ever: 54 percent overall disapprove of how he’s handled the most overwhelmingly important issue in the campaign. That’s the highest level since August. Nearly six in 10 disapprove of how the president is handling the budget and spending. And 56 percent believe the country is on the wrong track — 48 percent strongly so.

Romney is favored by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent, both on the questions of which candidate will better grow the economy and create more jobs. Significantly more strongly disapprove of his job performance, 44 percent, than strongly approve, 37 percent.

Among those who describe pocketbook issues as their top concern, which is 7 in 10 voters, Romney leads 56 to 41 percent.
La favorabilidad de Romney sigue subiendo. La de Obama se mantiene.
Romney’s personal favorability has also continued to grow in the wake of the debates. He’s now viewed positively by 52 percent of respondents, up from 47 percent at the start of the month. Only 43 percent view him unfavorably, the lowest number since the primaries.

While Obama’s overall favorability is roughly the same, 51 percent, he finds himself underwater in the suburbs. Only 44 percent of suburban voters view Obama positively, compared to 54 percent who see him unfavorably. It’s a significantly bigger spread in rural America, but it’s offset by his 65 percent favorability in urban areas.
Obama gana en política exterior y en empatía con la clase media.
Obama maintained the nine-point foreign policy advantage he carried into the third and final debate last Monday, which focused on the subject. Asked which candidate has a better foreign policy, Obama is ahead 52 to 43 percent.

That debate in Florida also helped the president retake the lead on which candidate is the stronger leader, 49 to 46 percent, a four-point swing his direction from last week. Obama also grew his lead on the question of who “shares your values” from two to three points.

Obama retains an edge on other substantive issues. He’s up 2 points on which candidate has the better tax policy, six on who is better for Medicare and 13 on who stands up more for the middle class.
Tradicionalmente, aparte de la encuesta periódica, el Battleground Poll también hace una proyección de voto basándose en un modelo más apretado de votantes probables, que POLITICO no lleva en su artículo. La proyección de esta semana anticipa una victoria de cinco puntos para Romney:
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent.  The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.

(...) The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll.  Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.

The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.  Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat.  The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
Aquí podéis ver el grado de fiabilidad de la proyección del Battleground Poll en años anteriores.

6 comentarios:

Anónimo dijo...

Yo veo muy bien la campaña de Romney. Creo que lo habéis dicho durante estos días pasado en este interesante blog.

Lo que no entiendo es lo encuesta periódica, el Battleground Poll.

Cuidado Pensilvania porque empieza a ponersele un poco cuesta arriba al Sr Obama

José Sanz

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

la encuesta periódica es la encuesta semanal. la intención de voto entre el martes y el viernes de la semana pasada.

La proyección es cómo calculan que quedará el día de las elecciones, teniendo en cuenta factores como la intensidad, los indecisos, o el voto temprano.

Supongo que el lunes que viene publicarán una proyección definitiva.

Anónimo dijo...

Yo alucino con los de Politico (La firma encuestadora PPP siempre toma una cifra de demócratas mucho mayor que republicanos e independientes. ¿Alguien me lo puede explicar?

Hoy WasPost coge una muestra de D+. Es que así seguro que siempre Obama o gana o quedfa empatado estadísticamente con Romney. Me quedo a cuadros.....

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

El Washington Post el viernes tenía +4%D y ayer tenía +7%D y Romney ganando por un punto. Es como si fuesen ajustando la muestra para que nunca se vea a Obama mal.

PPP ha cambiado su muestra de New Hampshire en la última semana. La ha variado 6 puntos hacia los demócratas. Hace una semana tenía a Romney ganando por 1 punto y ahora a Obama ganando por 2 y dicen que es porque Obama tiene el momentum, no porque han variado la muestra un 6% hacia los demócratas.

De la encuesta de PPP sobre Florida mejor no digo nada. Si tienen a Obama ganando Florida, ya sabes lo que debes pensar del resto de sus encuestas.

Ayer Tampa Bay Times decía que Romney está ganando el corredor I-4 por 5 puntos, y el Miami Herald que Obama está ganando Miami-Dade por solo 9 puntos. De ser eso cierto, Florida caería del lado de Romney temprano en la noche electoral.

periplaneta dijo...

Las chatis votan en masa a Obama...¡mamí, qué será lo que tiene el negro!

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

La mujer es más emocional. Vota más por emociones. El hombre es más racional.