miércoles, 15 de agosto de 2012

16: el dilema de Christie, reelección sí o reelección no


(Foto: AP/Mel Evans)

Chris Cillizza (The Washington Post) nos recuerda que Chris Christie pronto tendrá que decidir si se presenta o no a la reelección en New Jersey. Si Romney es elegido Presidente, parece claro que lo hará, ya que se supone que la nominación presidencial republicana no volvería a estar disponible hasta 2020. Pero se especula en New Jersey que, si Obama es reelegido, Christie podría decidir no buscar la reelección para evitar riesgos y preparar con tiempo la campaña presidencial de 2016. Carter, Reagan o el propio Romney son ejemplos recientes de ex-Gobernadores que pudieron volcarse al 100% en una campaña nacional gracias a que no ocupaban ningún cargo desde al menos dos años antes de las elecciones.
“I learned a long time ago to take each cycle one at a time,” said Bill Palatucci, a close adviser to Christie and a Republican National Comitteeman from New Jersey. “This is a great honor for the Governor and something that all New Jerseyans can take great pride in. For what the future holds, no one knows.”

No one may know but that won’t stop the speculation about where Christie, who remains the biggest — and most recognizable — star in the Republican party, will run next. Heck, even Christie himself has entertained the possibility of his next move, telling the Associated Press that he would “certainly think about it” if the GOP presidential nomination is open in four years time.

Before Christie can get that point — whether in 2016 or 2020 — he needs to decide on a second term in 2013.

(...) There is some chatter in New Jersey political circles — perhaps pushed by Democrats hoping against hope — that Christie might, in fact, decide not to run again particularly if Romney loses this fall. The thinking goes that it would be a tough pivot for Christie to win a second term in 2013 and immediately begin laying the groundwork for a 2016 presidential bid — and that such an effort would be more easily built from outside of elected office than in it.

“He has often said that he would govern as if he were not seeking re-election so that his decisions would not be seen as political,” said New Jersey-based Democratic consultant Brad Lawrence.  ”Whether one buys that line, it gives him the perfect out to not seek re-election and, in fact, enhance his brand, rather than pulling a Palin.”

Regardless of what Christie does next, it’s clear that those allied with him see his keynote speech to be a major testing ground for the tough talk messaging he has made famous/infamous since being elected in 2009.

“This is an opportunity to see if the country is ready for someone who speaks candidly about hard truths,” said one New Jersey Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly.