jueves, 23 de agosto de 2012

Encuestas hechas a la medida de Obama

Battleground Watch analiza la última encuesta de NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac que da a Obama 3 puntos de ventaja en Florida, 6 en Ohio y 2 en Wisconsin:

The Florida party ID was Democrat 34, Republican 28 and Independent 32 or D +6 when the party ID in 2008 was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and in 2004 it was R +4 (37-41-23).  In 2010 it was dead even (36-36-29). So in a hugely Democrat sample, greater than the Obama “Hope and Change” wave of 2008, Obama only leads by 3 and SENIORS favor Romney by 13-points.  Imagine what those numbers would be if they more fairly weighted the survey.

The Ohio party ID was Democrat 34, Republican 26 and Independent 34 or D +8. In 2008 party ID was D +8 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30), in 2004 it was R +5 (35-40-25)  and in 2010 it was dead even (36-36-28). Again, the sampling in Ohio expects Obama’s historic election enthusiasm from 2008 to be repeated in Ohio despite the tectonic shift in the state in 2010 where Republicans took the state house, the governor’s mansion and actually had a ballot vote where 66% of Ohioans wanted a REPEAL of Obamacare.  A repeat of 2008 Dem advantage is not happening.

In Wisconsin the party ID in this survey was Democrat 32, Republican 28, Independent 33 or D +4. In 2008 the party ID split was D +6 (Dem 39-Rep 33-Ind 29) versus 2004 the party ID was R +3 (35-38-27) and in 2010 the split was D +1 (37-26-37). This sampling was the closest to reasonable and still probably over-sampled Democrats. To review, since 2008 Wisconsin has undertaken a political metamorphosis with Republicans gaining controls of every branch of state government in 2010.
Esto es como seguir el partido de esta noche en Marca TV.