Seguimiento de las elecciones presidenciales de EEUU.
lunes, 15 de octubre de 2012
POLITICO/George Washington University: notable mejoría de la imagen de Romney
La nueva encuesta de POLITICO/George Washington University dice que los candidatos están en empate técnico con una utópica muestra de +8% D pero que compensa con un electorado más blanco de lo normal (77% blanco),tanto a nivel nacional como en la media de los 10 estados más indecisos.
Los números de Romney en los estados indecisos son más prometedores teniendo en cuenta que la encuesta incluye en esa lista de 10 algunos estados que Obama debería estar ganando bien, como Michigan.
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters puts Obama ahead of Romney 49 percent to 48 percent, a statistical tie and the same as the week before. Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Romney leads 50 percent to 48 percent.
La gran novedaddel análisis de esta semana es la mejoría en la simpatía de imagen de Romney.
Even as the head-to-head number held stubbornly steady for the past month, Romney improved his likability numbers. A slim majority, 51 percent, now views Romney favorably as a person, while 44 percent view him unfavorably.
The former Massachusetts governor had been underwater on this measure. In mid-September, 49 percent of respondents viewed him unfavorably. Going into the first presidential debate in Denver on Oct. 3, the electorate was evenly split 47 percent to 47 percent on what to make of Mitt.
(...) Obama’s enduring personal popularity has been a key reason for his political resiliency. But Obama and Romney are now essentially tied on likability: 53 percent of those surveyed have a positive impression of Obama personally, and 45 percent do not. The same number view both Romney and Obama strongly favorably as view them strongly unfavorably.
Confirma que Romney ganó el debate.
Of the 86 percent of voters who said they watched the first debate or saw coverage of it, three in four declared Romney the winner. Only 16 percent thought Obama prevailed. One in three voters said the debate made them more likely to vote for Romney, but 52 percent said it made no difference.
Romney gana entre los independientes.
Romneyleads by 8 points among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent. Obama won this swing group by a similar margin four years ago, but the president is edging Romney in the head-to-head ballot because of heavy Latino backing and essentially monolithic African-American support.
El candidato republicano ha mejorado sus números con las mujeres aunque la brecha de género persiste - Obama es el favorito de las mujeres y Romney el de los hombres.
Among women, Obama still holds a commanding, double-digit lead over Romney, 54 to 43 percent. Asked about Romney as a person, 46 percent of women now have a positive impression and 48 percent have an unfavorable impression, down 3 points from before the debate.
The gender gap persists on both sides. Romney leads with men by an identical 11 points, 54 percent to 43 percent.
El escándalo de Benghazi parece haber hecho mella en la aprobación de la política exterior Obama, a pesar de no haber recibido atención suficiente de la prensa.
The Democrat maintains the edge on which candidate “shares your values,” 50 percent to 46 percent. He’s also seen as the stronger leader, 49 percent to 47 percent. Romney has a 3-point edge on who can actually get things done, 48 percent to 45 percent.
Obama has largely squandered his advantage on national security. Just 48 percent approve of the president’s handling of foreign policy, compared to 46 percent who disapprove. The president had a 13-point spread in May between the percentage who approved and disapproved. More respondents now strongly disapprove of the president’s handling of events overseas than strongly approve.
Obama only has a 4-percentage-point edge over Romney on who will better handle foreign policy. In August, Obama had a 15-percentage-point advantage over his opponent.
Sigue habiendo mayor entusiasmo republicano aunque los apoyos a Obama son más definitivos.
A Republican enthusiasm edge that has opened up in the six weeks since the conventions continues to boost Romney. Among those who describe themselves as “extremely likely” to vote, Romney leads Obama 51 percent to 47 percent. Among those who say they are “very likely” to vote, Obama leads 54 percent to 41 percent.
[Democratic pollster Celinda] Lake calls these numbers “a warning to Democrats.” She adds that Obama’s support is firmer than Romney’s, with 73 percent of Obama voters saying they’re voting for their candidate compared to 59 percent who say they‘re voting for Romney.
Los votantes siguen confiando más en Romney para manejar la economía a pesar del descenso del índice de paro en el último mes.
Numbers released Oct. 5 showed the unemployment rate falling to 7.8 percent, but this good news generated little discernible movement in Obama’s direction. A slight majority, 51 percent, disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy. Romney leads by 3 points on which of the two candidates would better handle the economy and by 2 points on who can create more jobs.
Historically, according to [Republican pollster Ed] Goeas, it takes six solid months of consistent economic news to change the electorate’s perception of how things are doing.
“The race continues to be extremely close,” Goeas said. “Obama really has two opponents in this campaign: He has Mitt Romney and he has the national economy.”
Only 53 percent of voters now say the country is on the wrong track.
Obama’s overall approval rating is a net positive on taxes, Medicare and standing up for the middle class.
But voters disapprove of Obama’s handling of the federal budget and spending by a margin of 16 points, 56 percent to 40 percent.