martes, 21 de febrero de 2012

PPP: Santorum, favorito en Washington



Public Policy Polling:
Wedged between the Michigan/Arizona primaries and Super Tuesday the Washington state GOP caucus hasn't received a lot of attention. At least for now it looks like it could give Rick Santorum some momentum headed into the critical March 6th contests. He leads there with 38% to 27% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 12% for Newt Gingrich.

Santorum is by far the most popular of the Republican candidates with 69% viewing him favorably to only 18% with a negative opinion. Romney is the only other one who even has a positive favorability rating. He's at 47/42. The disparity between Santorum and Romney's numbers in Washington resembles what we found for the contests two weeks ago in Missouri and Minnesota, both of which Santorum ended up winning by a healthy margin.

Next week looks like it could be disastrous for Gingrich. He's in 4th place in both Washington and Michigan, and in 3rd place in Arizona. He's not remotely close to finishing in the top 2 in any of those states. It's not just that Republican voters aren't planning to vote for Gingrich, they don't even like him any more. In Washington his favorability is upside down at 39/46 and the same is true in Michigan (39/50) and Arizona (43/48) as well.

Gingrich's continued presence in the state is a boost to Romney. If he pulled out before Washington 59% of his supporters say they'd move to Santorum, compared to only 13% who would go to Romney. That would make the overall standings Santorum 49, Romney 28, Paul 16- as long as Gingrich stays in and keeps splitting the conservative vote it's keeping Romney competitive.

Santorum may have the edge in Washington for now but the race there is volatile, as it seems to be for the Republicans everywhere right now. 50% of voters say they could change their minds between now and next week. One thing Romney has going for him is that 54% of his supporters are strongly committed to him, compared to only 48% of Santorum's who will say that. Among voters whose minds are completely made up the race tightens with Santorum leading only 40-32. If Romney wins Michigan and Arizona and sees momentum swing back in his direction, this state could get a lot closer.

2 comentarios:

JH dijo...

Si Santorum gana en Michigan y obtiene un resultado decente en Arizona y gana Washington, puede ser un gran trampolín de cara al Supermartes.

Por cierto, en el Supermartes votarán once estados. Parece que en Ohio puede ganar Santorum. ¿En cúal más? Gingrich me imagino hará lo posible por ganar Georgia, en Massachussets ganará seguro Romney. ¿Que pasará por ejemplo en Alaska? ¿Que importancía puede tener un apoyo de Palin a Santorum o Gingrich? ¿Y qué pasará en el Sur, se irán los conservadores con Santorum?

Desde luego, como cambian las cosas en poco más de un mes. Parecía que Romney tenía la nominación cantada y ahora la lucha puede alargarse bastante.

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

Parece que Romney está volviendo a entrar en una dinámica positiva. Parece que este año el momentum no vale nada. Romney gana en NH, llega con momentum a SC y pierde contra Gingrich. Gingrich llega con momentum a Florida, y en sólo 1 semana de campaña pierde el momentum. Romney sale de Florida más fuerte que nunca, y parece que va a ganar todas las primarias de febrero, y pierde 3 en un mismo día. Ahora, cuando nadie daba un duro por él, parece que está recueprándose en las encuestas en Michigan.

Es como si cada estado quisiera llevarle la contraria al estado anterior. O es que todo depende del dinero que gasta Romney. Cuando llega necesitado y gasta mucho, gana. Cuando llega confiado y no gasta, pierde.

A ver qué pasa en el debate de mañana, que es lo que definirá los próximos días de campaña.