martes, 21 de febrero de 2012

Un estratega del GOP: si Romney pierde Michigan, se desata el caos


"Michigan is the whole shooting match," said one senior GOP strategist not aligned with a campaign. Says another: "If Romney loses Michigan, all hell breaks loose."

Given that real possibility, one knowledgeable GOP source confirms that some Republicans are circulating the deadlines and the basic math that would allow another candidate to get into the nomination fight and take it all the way to the convention. More than a half dozen states' filing deadlines have yet to pass. A majority of the delegates to the national convention are still up for grabs. One more factor to be considered: many states are choosing their delegates proportionally, which makes it easier for a candidate pick up delegates without outright winning a state.

Politico first reported the existence of a document circulating among Republicans.

Santorum's highlighting of cultural issues could play well for him in the short-term. But the worry among Republicans is that his views will raise the question of his electability. "After a while, Republican voters will start asking whether this is the guy to take on Obama," says one GOP strategist. In addition to the fear of a potential loss to Obama, some Republicans worry about losing the House of Representatives if Santorum were at the top of the ticket.

“There is no faith he would bring independent or moderate voters. If he does well on Super Tuesday you’ll have serious people talking about convention strategies etc,” one Republican congressional leadership aide told CNN Senior Congressional Correspondent Dana Bash.

"Santorum would so alienate voters, especially women…he would be lucky to carry a dozen states," one senior Republican told CNN, referring to Santorum's disapproval of pre-natal screening.

(...) One of the Republicans who has seen the memo said "no one is hoping that this will come to play," regarding a new candidate entering the fray. Yet some Republican partisans feel they need to make some contingency plans depending on the outcome in coming primaries. Other veteran Republicans contacted by CNN dismissed any possibility of another candidate entering the contest at this date.

There are no names of possible candidates mentioned in the memo. Who would the Republicans possibly turn to? The usual suspects include Sarah Palin, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie or Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. They could still enter the race although they all have repeatedly said they will not mount a campaign despite new inquiries by some in the party.

(...) For its part the Republican National Committee is downplaying the prospects of another contender entering the fray.

“We are four games into what is a 54 game league and people are trying to pick the equivalent of a super bowl or a world series. We have 4 great candidates. I’m confident one of them will be our nominee and will go on to be successful in November,” RNC Spokesman Sean Spicer said.

5 comentarios:

Anónimo dijo...

No todo son noticias negativas. Parece que Romney poco a poco va logrando remontar. La ultima encuesta sobre la Primaria en Michigan, Mitchell/Rosetta Stone, sitúa ya a Romney por delante de Santorum. Y a nivel nacional, USA Today / Gallup. Romney 50% - Obama 46%.

Un abrazo para todos

Casto Martin

eusko libertarian dijo...

Pues cada vez me pone mas eso de la convencion abierta xdd

Menudo despiporre con 4 candidatos igualados,... el GOP ofreciendo a Jeb Bush ,o Christie y la Palin vendiendose por las esquinas de la Convencion

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

También se podría dar una "contested convention". Es decir, una convención a la que un candidato llegue con el número suficiente de delegados para salir nominados, pero que sus rivales no se rindan y traten de disputarle algunos delegados por considerar que en tal o cual estado se adjudicaron injustamente, y demás conflictos que habría que resolver en el comité de credenciales. Eso podría dar lugar a una convención como la convención demócrata del 72, y eso sería mucho menos rentable para lso republicanos que una convención abierta, porque saldría nominado el que se esperaba, pero en un ambiente de división no resuelta.

JH dijo...

¿Podría pasar, como hace doce años con Bush-Gore en la general, que el candidato con más votos no fuese el de más delegados?

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

Podría pasar, ha pasado toras veces. Eso es lo de menos. Por ejemplo en las primarias republcianas de 1968, Reagan fue el candidato más votado, sin ni siqueira haber anunciadoc andidatura, gracias a los votos de California.

En voto popular Romney tiene mucha ventaja ahora mismo gracias a Florida.