Y uno se hace la siguiente pregunta: si Obama ganó Florida por solo 2 puntos y Ohio por 4 en 2008, si su tope fue el 51% en ambos estados en su mejor momento, este año, en una elección más igualada, sin gastar tres veces más que su rival como en aquella ocasión, y con unas leyes electorales más estrictas, ¿va a ganar Florida y Ohio por 6 puntos? ¿En serio? ¿Va a ganar Florida? ¿En serio?
Christian Heinze (The Hill) tiene la posible explicación a los resultados:
One possible reason for these results? Sampling. The pollsters sampled Democrats at +9% in Florida, +8% in Ohio, and -- very weirdly -- only +6% in Pennsylvania.
How can you sample Democrats at only +6% in a state with a huge Democratic registration advantage (Pennsylvania), but go with +9% in Florida and +8% in Ohio?
To wit: As of June, Democrats only had a 52%-48% registration advantage in Florida. So you're going to sample Democrats at twice that rate in an election where enthusiasm favors Republicans?
Meanwhile, Democrats have a 57%-43% registration advantage in Pennsylvania, and you're going to sample Dems at a lower rate than Florida?
As for Ohio, the state doesn't release partisan registration totals, so we're out of luck there, but again, it's hard to imagine why you'd sample Pennsylvania at +6% in favor of Democrats and +8% in Ohio, which is a much redder state.¿El propósito? Mantener las medias de RCP siempre a favor de Obama.
Actualización: Jim Geraghty (National Review) lo pone más claro:
When Quinnipiac asked its swing state samples, “Did you vote for Barack Obama or John McCain in 2008? Obama enjoys a 13 percentage point margin in Florida and a 15 percentage point margin in Ohio. Of course, in 2008, Obama won Florida by three percentage points and Ohio by 4.6 percentage points.Podéis haceros una idea de cómo está la cosa realmente en esos estados.
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