viernes, 19 de octubre de 2012

Boston y Chicago riñen por los datos del voto temprano en Ohio

CNN informaba ayer que los republicanos han recortado la ventaja de demócratas registrados de 2008 en el voto temprano de Ohio de 20 puntos a solo 7:
Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22% - a dismal 20-point deficit that contributed to Sen. John McCain's defeat in Ohio.

Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29%.

Republicans are outperforming their voter registration in several of the state's biggest counties.

For instance, through Wednesday in Cuyahoga County, the largest county in the state and home to Democrat-heavy Cleveland, nearly a quarter million absentee ballots have been requested and some 80,000 have been returned. Those numbers strongly favor Democrats: 47,538 to 16,720 for Republicans. About 15,000 listed no party affiliation.

In Cuyahoga, Republicans only make up about 12% of registered voters. Ballot numbers through Tuesday of this week, however, signal that almost 22% of early voters in Cuyahoga are Republican.

Franklin County - which encompasses Columbus - trails Cuyahoga in absentee ballot requests but leads the state in the number of early in-person voters, according to the Columbus Dispatch. Registered Democrats voting early outnumbered Republicans by a 4-1 margin, the paper reported Thursday.

GOP officials, though, say their absentee and in-person voting turnout in Franklin is coming along nicely. Republicans account for just 16.5% of registered voters in the county, but make up 28.6% of early voting activity so far.

Early vote numbers in key counties like Lucas, Hamilton, Butler, Clermont and Warren tell a similar story.

Additionally, a Republican National Committee source told CNN that among early voters not identifying with any party, RNC modeling has tagged 30.5% as Romney supporters and 24.9% as Obama supporters.
A Chicago no le ha gustado nada la información y ha respondido con un memorándum que se apoya en las encuestas para decir que lo están haciendo mejor de lo esperado.
The Obama campaign on Friday circulated a memo claiming to be well ahead of Mitt Romney among early voters in the critical battleground state of Ohio.
“Today we are ahead of where we were at this time against John McCain – and ahead of Mitt Romney,” national field director Jeremy Bird wrote. “Republicans are similarly talking up their ground game and early vote numbers, but their assertions rest on much shakier ground.”

(...) But the Bird memo pointed to four polls that show Obama with leads of between 19 and 52 points in Ohio among early voters, and argued the demographics and geography of those who had voted early strongly favors the president.

(...) “Despite our smaller numbers, however, Democratic primary voters are outvoting Republican primary voters by a wide margin across the state,” Bird continued. “A greater percentage of Democratic primary voters than Republican primary voters have requested a ballot, have returned a mail ballot and have voted in person. Altogether, 145,880 Democratic primary voters have cast ballots, 28,013 more than Republican primary voters.”

“President Obama is winning early vote among primary election voters in the key battleground of Ohio,” he concluded.