Romney continues to lead his foes in the delegate hunt, adding at least three dozen to his total after beating Rick Santorum in Michigan and Arizona.
But with 437 delegates on the table next Tuesday, and with most of them allocated according to each candidate's share of the vote, all four of the GOP contenders are certain to boost their delegate counts, giving everyone in the field a rationale, however thin, to move forward.
The Super Tuesday map features both bright spots and traps for every candidate -- Romney is expected to coast to easy wins in Massachusetts and Virginia, for instance, but faces a tough slog in states like Ohio and Tennessee -- meaning that no one is likely to emerge as an outright victor when the smoke clears.
With none of the candidates boasting an across-the-board advantage, a handful of contested states will take on outsized importance.
The day's biggest prize is Ohio.
Though the state has 10 fewer delegates than Georgia, Ohio carries enormous symbolic weight both as a general election bellwether and a Republican proving ground.
Ohio will test each candidate's ability to connect with GOP voters of all stripes -- from rural, small town conservatives to working class whites to wealthier moderates in the suburbs around Cincinnati and Cleveland.
Romney trailed Santorum by double digits in Ohio prior to his win Tuesday night in neighboring Michigan, a state where Santorum had hoped his blue-collar pitch would resonate.
Santorum came up short in Michigan and Romney emerged with a much-needed win after a month that highlighted his vulnerabilities as a candidate, but Ohio Republicans say Romney's path forward is still fraught with challenges.
(...) "Romney is suffering from the same soft feelings among Republicans in Ohio as he is everywhere else," said one high-ranking GOP figure in Ohio who is not supporting any candidate in the race. "And don't forget, a big swath of this state is basically right next to western Pennsylvania, where Santorum's wheelhouse was."
(...) The stakes are unquestionably highest for Gingrich, who has pinned his hopes on Super Tuesday ever since his deflating loss to Romney in Florida in January.
Since then, Santorum has seized the conservative, anti-Romney mantle while Gingrich has limped through February, longing to compete in several southern states where his campaign hopes his Georgia roots and bold conservative rhetoric will hold appeal.
On Sunday, Gingrich said a win in Georgia is "central to the future of our campaign," a tacit admission that anything less than a win in his home state would derail his sputtering candidacy.
Ralph Reed, a GOP strategist and a former chairman of the Georgia Republican Party, said Gingrich must be considered the frontrunner there because of his longstanding goodwill with party veterans and his endorsements from Gov. Nathan Deal and members of the state's Congressional delegation.
(...) Along with Georgia, the Gingrich campaign is hoping to snare delegates in Ohio (66), Tennessee (58), Oklahoma (43) and parts of Idaho (32), where delegates are awarded on a county-by-county basis.
Though his candidacy is in far better shape than Gingrich's, the coming week will also present several key tests for Romney.
He is all-but-certain to win his home state of Massachusetts (41) and Virginia (49), where only he and Paul managed to qualify for the ballot.
Romney is also expected to perform well in Idaho, where Mormon voters, who backed the former Massachusetts governor by wide margins in previous contests, could exceed 30% of the caucus vote, according to some Republicans in the state.
But primaries in Oklahoma, Tennessee and Georgia may once again call attention to Romney's frosty relationship with hardline conservatives.
(...) Romney's drubbing in South Carolina earlier this year raised questions about his ability to win over conservatives in the South -- the GOP's most reliable voting bloc in general elections -- if he eventually wins the nomination.
His performance in the southern states on Tuesday could either squelch some of those concerns or exacerbate them.
"Romney has to show some kind of lift in the South, and not just in Virginia," said Republican pollster Ed Goeas. "Ohio is going to be the big battle that day, but I would also look to see what happens in Tennessee and Georgia."
Republicans agree that Super Tuesday will not determine the party's nominee, but it could very well harden the emerging outlines of the Republican race.
Turn-out in today’s presidential primary election looks to be about the same or less than it was four years ago, according to a sampling of clerks in key precincts the Free Press is using to analyze the vote.Actualización 3:25 pm -
A dozen things that will happen if Mitt Romney loses Michigan:
1. Romney will face inordinate pressure to shake up his campaign team.
2. He will face public questions from elected officials and Republicans strategists about his electability and competence that will make past doubts seem mild.
3. He will have even more trouble raising money for his campaign and his Super PAC.
4. He will face more pressure to put his own millions of dollars into the campaign — and the dilemma that, if he does, it willdiscourage additional contributions from others even more.
5. He will dial around like a management consultant on steroids, seeking advice about how to turn things around.
6. His campaign will begin to argue through the media even more strenuously that this is a contest of delegate accumulation, rather than momentum.
7. His campaign will face the challenge of spinning how he lost his home state — and will argue that Santorum won with illegitimate Democratic votes.
8. People will start to notice that the upcoming states (outside of New England) are not so good for Romney politically.
9. Rick Santorum will face a moment of maximum opportunity to consolidate support — and will blow it if he fails to pivot to an economic message.
10. Newt Gingrich will see his moment to get back in the game by besting Santorum in Super Tuesday's Southern contest.
11. The country will be subjected to another round of Christie-Bush-Daniels-Ryan speculation.
12. Romney will still be the frontrunner for the nomination.
People sometimes apply the term “tossup” a bit too broadly, using it to refer to anything close enough that they don’t want to render a prediction about it.
In Michigan, however, the term is appropriate. Rick Santorum, who once trailed Mitt Romney badly in the state, then surged to a clear lead there, then saw Mr. Romney regain his footing and pull back ahead, appears to have some late momentum in the race — perhaps just enough to win, and perhaps not.
(...) One word of warning: factors like early voting, crossover voting and the relatively large amount of demographic diversity within Michigan will make it tricky to call the state based on exit poll results and the first few precincts that report. For instance, if early and absentee results are reported before those cast on Election Day, as is common in some states, Mr. Romney could initially emerge with a lead that proves ephemeral. I generally take the view that the news networks are too quick to call a race — shouldn’t have we learned something from Florida in 2000 or Iowa this year? — but there is reason to be especially cautious here.
Let's look at both potential scenarios.
ROMNEY WINS MICHIGAN: (...) A loss in Michigan would effectively end Santorum's moment, at least for now, and once again establish Romney as the frontrunner for the nomination.
Other than Romney, the candidate who has the most to gain from a Santorum loss in Michigan is Newt Gingrich. Both Santorum and Gingrich are hoping to do well in the Southern states that begin voting on March 6, when ten states hold contests on what has become known as Super Tuesday. A Santorum loss in Michigan opens the door for the former House speaker to reassert himself as a plausible conservative alternative to Romney, while a Santorum win may close the Gingrich window for good.
Romney winning Michigan (and, presumably, Arizona) doesn't hand the former Massachusetts governor the nomination. Perhaps the most important Super Tuesday vote is in Ohio, where a new Quinnipiac University poll shows Santorum leading Romney 36 percent to 29 percent; Romney would likely get a boost out of a Michigan win, but Santorum - who hails from nearby Pennsylvania - won't go away without a fight. And no matter what happens, Romney is expected to have a hard time in at least three other Super Tuesday states: Georgia (Gingrich's home state), Tennessee and Oklahoma, deeply conservative Southern states relatively hostile to the wealthy, Ivy league-educated Romney. A new Vanderbilt University poll in Tennessee shows Santorum leading Romney there 38 percent to 20 percent.
The good news for Romney is that he still has more money, better organization and more establishment support than any of his rivals. And if he wins both states Tuesday, he'll be able to claim momentum as well.
SANTORUM WINS MICHIGAN: And the Romney campaign goes into full panic mode. There will be headlines about how Romney can't win in the Midwest, can't win conservatives, and can't win working-class voters; his recent spate of tone-deaf comments inadvertently spotlighting his wealth (most recently that he doesn't really follow NASCAR but hey, he's got friends who own teams) will be spotlighted to argue that Romney's claim to be the most electable candidate against President Obama simply doesn't hold up. Romney won't be finished - see the advantages mentioned above, along with the fact that only he and Paul are on the ballot in Virginia, which votes on Super Tuesday - but he will be reeling, and he'll need to find a way to win in Ohio to keep the wheels from going off completely.
Santorum, meanwhile, will be able to claim frontrunner status, and will likely build on his Michigan win with victories in Tennessee, Oklahoma and maybe even Georgia -- which would effectively knock Gingrich out of the race. The contest would then likely become a long slog that could last all the way until June, with Romney, Santorum and Paul battling for delegates and tearing each other down as President Obama looks on happily from the sidelines.
The situation would also increase the prospects of a contested convention, in which no candidate has the 1,144 delegates necessary to secure the nomination outright. That's good news for Paul, a long shot for the nomination who has focused on accruing delegates and could play kingmaker at a contested convention. In exchange for his delegates, Paul could force the nominee to adopt changes in the party platform that move the GOP closer to Paul's brand of small-government libertarianism.
It is not just the Romney campaign who would go into panic mode following a Santorum win. Many Republican party elders would be grasping for the proverbial red button. There are deep concerns among establishment types that Santorum, with his unapologetic embrace of social conservatism, would both lose badly in November -- and be a drag on Republicans in their effort to hang onto the House and take over the Senate.
If Santorum wins Tuesday, expect to see the calls for a last-minute candidate such as Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie to come in at the last minute and try to keep Santorum from the nomination. It's not clear how that's possible - most of the primary filing deadlines have passed, and even in the case of a contested convention, Santorum won't simply stand aside. but that won't keep a good chunk of worried establishment Republicans from trying to push him.
PPP's final poll in Michigan finds Rick Santorum holding on to the smallest of leads with 38% to 37% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich.
It's always good to be cautious with one night poll numbers, but momentum seems to be swinging in Santorum's direction. Romney led with those interviewed on Sunday, but Santorum has a 39-34 advantage with folks polled on Monday. The best sign that things have gone back toward Santorum might be that with those polled today who hadn't already voted, Santorum's advantage was 41-31.
Much has been made of Democratic efforts to turn out the vote for Santorum and we see evidence that's actually happening. Romney leads with actual Republican voters, 43-38. But Santorum's up 47-10 with Democratic voters, and even though they're only 8% of the likely electorate that's enough to put him over the top. The big question now is whether those folks will actually bother to show up and vote tomorrow.
Even though things seem to be moving back in Santorum's direction, there's one big reason to think that Romney will still come out as the winner tomorrow night. 18% of the electorate has already cast its ballots and with those voters in the bank Romney has a 56-29 advantage. Santorum's likely to win election day voters, but he''s going to have to do it by a wide margin to erase the lead Romney has stored. We see Santorum with a 40-33 advantage among those who have yet to vote.
Romney hasn't made a good last impression on Michigan voters. His favorability in Sunday interviews was 57/36, but in Monday interviews it was only 47/48. Santorum saw little difference in his reviews between the two days: 54/39 on Sunday and 56/36 on Monday. If Romney does indeed end up losing tomorrow there's not much doubt he will have blown it in the final 48 hours.
Front-runners Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are in a virtual tie with the former Massachusetts governor up by just two points as the Michigan Republican Primary race comes down to the wire.Después del debate del pasado jueves, Rasmussen le daba seis puntos de ventaja a Romney (40% - 34%).
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan, taken Sunday night, finds Romney with 38% support to Santorum’s 36%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remain far behind with 11% and 10% of the vote respectively. One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) remains undecided.
Rick Santorum holds a slight lead heading into the Michigan Republican presidential primary. Santorum leads with 36% and is followed by Mitt Romney with 35%, Ron Paul with 15%, and Newt Gingrich with 8%.
Santorum has lost 2 percentage points since a similar survey conducted February 21-22, 2012, while Romney has gained 1 percentage point.
Romney now leads Santorum 38% to 37% among self-identified Republicans, followed by Gingrich with 11% and Paul with 9%. Among self-identified independents and Democrats, Santorum leads with 34%, followed by Romney with 30%, Paul with 25%, and Gingrich with 3%.
Santorum leads Romney 36% to 35% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will definitely vote in the February 28 primary, followed by Paul with 16% and Gingrich with 7%. Romney and Santorum are tied at 35% each among those saying they will probably vote, followed by Gingrich with 14% and Paul with 9%.
Santorum leads with 42% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 27%, Gingrich with 13%, and Paul with 11%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 40%, followed by Santorum with 32%, Paul with 17%, and Gingrich with 5%.
Santorum leads Romney 38% to 31% among men, followed by Paul with 18% and Gingrich with 9%. Romney leads Santorum 40% to 33% among women, followed by Paul with 11% and Gingrich with 7%.
With a strong, successful push over the weekend to move conservatives, especially social conservatives, back to him, Rick Santorum has re-taken the lead in the latest Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll of Michigan conducted for MIRS (Michigan Information & Research Service) Sunday night. The two front runners are still in a statistical dead heat, although Romney (35%) has lost his lead to Rick Santorum (37%) while Newt Gingrich (9%) and Ron Paul (8%) are locked in a battle for third place. Eleven percent remains undecided.
"There is an overlay between social and fiscal conservatives. Romney's strategy had been to win over all conservatives by hammering Santorum on the fact that he is not the fiscal conservative he claimed to be. Up until the weekend, that strategy seemed to be successful. However, Santorum's push for social conservatives in the past three days seems to have worked and they moved back to him, allowing him to re-take the lead. The volatility we thought had changed has not. The race remains very fluid, Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.
"With two other polls released last night saying Romney was ahead, we carefully examined and re-examined our data to make sure it was correct. We believe the race has shifted since our Thursday survey," John Garst of Rosetta Stone Communications said.
Santorum seems to have reversed Romney's inroads into key conservative demographics.
Mitt Romney's taken a small lead over Rick Santorum in PPP's newest Michigan poll. He's at 39% to 37% for Santorum, 13% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich. Compared to a week ago Romney's gained 6 points, while Santorum's just stayed in place.
Romney will go into election day with a large lead in the bank. Only 16% of Michigan voters say they've already cast their ballots, but Romney has a whooping 62-29 advantage over Santorum with that group. Santorum actually leads Romney 39-34 with those who are planning to cast their votes on Tuesday, but he'd need to win election day voters by even more than that to neutralize the advantage Romney's built up.
The last week of the campaign in Michigan has seen significant damage to Santorum's image with GOP voters in the state. His net favorability has declined 29 points from +44 (67/23) to now only +15 (54/39). Negative attacks on Romney meanwhile have had no negative effect with his favorability steady at +20 (57/37). Two weeks ago Santorum's net favorability in Michigan was 34 points better than Romney's. Now Romney's is 5 points better than Santorum's. Those kinds of wild swings are the story of the GOP race.
One place Santorum may have hurt himself in the last week is an overemphasis on social issues. 69% of voters say they're generally more concerned with economic issues this year to only 17% who pick social issues. And with the overwhelming majority of voters more concerned about the economy, Romney leads Santorum 45-30. Santorum's winning those more concerned about social issues 79-12 but it's just not that big a piece of the pie.
Romney has made significant in roads with all of Santorum's key groups of support. 2 weeks ago Santorum had leads around 30 points with Evangelicals, Tea Party voters, and those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' Santorum's still winning all those groups, but by significantly diminished margins- it's only 7 points with Evangelicals and Tea Partiers and 10 with 'very conservative' Republicans.
Romney's key base of support in Michigan, as it has been many places, is seniors. He has a 50-34 advantage with them and since most of those who have already voted fall into the over 65 category, that's a big part of why he has such a large lead with that group.
Mitt Romney is headed for an overwhelming victory in Arizona's primary on Tuesday. He's at 43% to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Newt Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.
You can make a fair argument that Romney's already won the Arizona primary. Almost half of those planning to vote have already cast their ballots, and Romney has a 48-25 advantage over Santorum with those folks. That lead makes it nearly impossible for Santorum to make up the difference on election day, and Romney has a 39-27 advantage with those planning to vote on Tuesday anyway.
Romney's winning basically winning every voter group in Arizona, even those he's tended to do quite poorly with. He leads Santorum 39-33 with Evangelicals, 39-23 with Tea Party voters (Santorum's in 3rd, Gingrich is actually 2nd at 30%), and 37-29 with those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' We project the Mormon vote at 14%. Romney leads 77-9 with them, but he has a 38-29 advantage with non-Mormons as well. Seniors are a key base of support for him in Arizona as they are everywhere. He leads 53-22 with them.
Santorum's image has taken a big hit over the last week in the state. His net favorability has dropped 15 points from +34 (61/27) to just +19 (54/35). The debate Wednesday night may have damaged his cause. 51% of likely voters report having watched it and he's actually in 3rd place with those folks at 21%, behind Romney's 43% and Gingrich's 23%.
Santorum may also have misstepped by talking too much about social issues in the last few weeks. 68% of Arizona voters say economic issues are their top concern when deciding who to vote for, compared to just 11% who say social issues are paramount. With the folks most concerned about economic issues he trails Romney 48-24.
Last week, The Star’s Editorial Board was visited by economist Art Laffer — yes, he of the famous Laffer curve. Most of the meeting dealt with topics other than national politics, but toward the end I asked him whether he thought President Barack Obama would be re-elected.
“No,” he replied immediately.
“Who’s going to do it? Santorum?” I asked, referring to former senator Rick Santorum, who last week was edging Mitt Romney in national polls.
Laffer’s answer was non-verbal. His hands went up on each side of his head. He leaned forward, bug-eyed at the imagined horror of Santorum as the GOP nominee — a response that reflects the fears of many on the Republican side.
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
Whether Mitt Romney wins or loses the Michigan and Arizona primaries on Tuesday, his advisers are warning donors and other supporters to prepare for a longer, more bruising and more expensive fight for the Republican presidential nomination that may not be settled until at least May.
That is prompting a new round of intensified fund-raising by his financial team, which had hoped by this point to be collecting money for a general election match with President Obama. The campaign is increasingly trying to quell anxiety among Republican leaders, while intently focusing on the mechanics of accumulating delegates needed to secure the nomination.
Mr. Romney’s aides said they were confident their sustained attacks portraying Rick Santorum as a Washington insider, and Mr. Santorum’s shaky debate performance in Arizona on Wednesday, had slowed their rival’s recent surge here in Michigan.
But Mr. Romney is by no means in the clear, they said, as he fights to avert a loss in the state where he was born and raised — and where less than three weeks ago he was expected to win handily, before Mr. Santorum’s surprise triumphs in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.
(...) For many Republicans, the question is not just whether Mr. Romney will eventually capture the nomination, but at what cost.
There is a growing sense among party leaders that the primary fight has gone on long enough and that continued attacks by the candidates and their allies have steered the conversation away from the economy and could damage the party’s prospects in the fall.
(...) Indeed, Mr. Romney’s campaign has warned donors and supporters that even with his victories in the coming contests, the Republican competition may very well last until at least the middle of May. They said the situation did not indicate diminishing prospects for Mr. Romney but rather was the result of the party’s delegate-allocation rules and the additional time those require for any candidate to accumulate the 1,144 delegates necessary to secure the nomination.
The acknowledgment that the intraparty competition will most likely continue into the spring would seem to sweep aside the Romney campaign’s hope that it could string together a series of early victories sufficient to claim the nominee’s mantle — symbolically, at least — and begin focusing exclusively on Mr. Obama.
(...) Even as Mr. Santorum appealed to conservatives for support in Michigan on Saturday, his allies were already advertising on his behalf in the next round of states to vote, another indication of how the candidates are planning to keep trading punches no matter what the outcome is on Tuesday.
In interviews, Mr. Romney’s aides and supporters dismissed that notion of a new entrant, and said their campaign was built to go the distance if necessary.
“We’re just going to have to work a little harder, and this team will do it,” said Mel Sembler, a member of Mr. Romney’s finance team, adding that it would be “ready to supply whatever he needs to win this primary” campaign.
“We’re all on the telephone again,” he said, “and we’re getting it done. It’s just going to take longer.”
Reflecting the unsettled outlook, aides to both Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum are playing down the importance of the Michigan and Arizona primaries. Those contests are preludes to the biggest day of voting in the Republican campaign on March 6, with 10 states and 437 delegates at play on Super Tuesday.
Gov. Paul LePage, a Maine Republican, said Saturday that the GOP presidential candidates are too “injured’’ by nomination fight and that the party would do better to pick a “fresh face’’ at its national convention in Tampa, Fla.
Mr. LePage, speaking to reporters at a National Governors Association conference, said that the four presidential hopefuls have violated former President Ronald Reagan’s maxim that Republicans should not speak ill of one another.
“It’s been too messy, and I just believe that we ought to go to the convention and pick a fresh face,’’ said Mr. LePage, who was sworn in as governor in January 2011.
He added: “They’ve gone after each other, and I think that the country deserves better than having people stand up and keep criticizing each other.’’
Asked if any of the candidates could beat President Obama in the fall, Mr. LePage sighed and said: “I don’t make predictions; I don’t know. Five dollar gasoline ought to defeat Obama.’’
Mr. LePage said he did not have a specific Republican in mind as an alternative to the four Republicans in the field: Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.
He said the debates — 20 in all — were so contentious that the party needs to look elsewhere for a viable nominee.
“The debates were just too messy,’’ Mr. LePage said. “Too nasty, too messy. They weren’t on the issues, and I believe a fresh face now that has a good vision for the American dream would really resonate in my mind.’’
Mitt Romney leads in the Arizona Republican presidential primary with 39%. Romney is followed by Rick Santorum with 35%, Newt Gingrich with 11%, and Ron Paul with 9%.
In a similar survey conducted February 13-14, 2012, Romney was leading with 38%, followed by Santorum with 31%, Gingrich with 15%, and Paul with 11%. Support for Santorum has increased 4 percentage points since the last survey and support for Romney has increased 1 percentage point.
Romney leads Santorum 50% to 29% among likely Republican primary voters saying they have already voted through early voting. Santorum leads Romney 41% to 29% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will vote on February 28.
Santorum leads with 44% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 34%, Gingrich with 18%, and Paul with 1%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 44%, followed by Santorum with 25%, Paul with 18%, and Gingrich with 3%.
Santorum leads Romney 43% to 32% among men, followed by Gingrich with 13% and Paul with 10%. Romney leads Santorum 47% to 26% among women, followed by Gingrich with 9% and Paul with 8%.
For those Republicans dissatisfied with the current presidential field and looking for a new candidate to jump into the race, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) has an answer:
“It ain’t me.”
Speaking with reporters on the sidelines of the National Governors Association Winter Meeting at the J.W. Marriott hotel in downtown Washington, Daniels acknowledged that he’s gotten some calls from members of his party to enter the race, but he declined to name names.
And he said that those calls haven’t caused him to reconsider his decision not to jump into the presidential fray.
“I wasn’t running, I’m not running, and I don’t plan to run,” he said. “I’d love to have something new to say to y’all, but I just don’t. I’ve felt there are other ways a person can contribute, and I’m trying to do that in other ways. But I’m not a candidate and I’m not planning to be.”
(...) But he has repeatedly dismissed calls to run and when he was asked again Saturday whether anything might change his mind, responded, “That’s one of those hypothetical questions I was trained not to answer.”
“This was never about practicalities or possibilities or any of that,” he said of potentially running for president. “It’s just not something I’ve had an ambition to do or any intention to do. You need more than a little ambition to go through this.”
“The fire in the belly,” one reporter said.
“Well, I’ve got a warm belly about the condition of the country, but not about running, personally,” he said.
“I really believe there’s a great chance for our nominee — presumably one of the current candidates — to win this election,” he said. “I really do. I think the objection condition of the economy will not be helpful at all to the president. Possibly even worse than today. And he has absolutely vacated the field on the most important issues, the ones that are bothering people in my state and elsewhere: a struggling economy and a mountain of debt.”
Delegates are allotted to states based on two factors. The first is a mathematical formula connected to a state’s congressional districts. For example, California, the state with the largest congressional delegation, also awards the highest number of delegates of any state primary: 172.
The second determining factor is a bit more puzzling to a non-political wonk. In addition to congressional districts, delegate totals are also based on the Republican Party’s influence throughout the particularly state. State’s get “bonus delegates” for hitting various marks; electing a Republican governor, electing a majority of Republican leadership to either chamber of the state’s legislature, electing a Republican senator within the six year period between Jan. 1, 2006 and Dec. 31, 2011, etc.
Bonus delegates are factored into a state’s overall delegate total; they are not distinguished in any way and serve no individual purpose. They are, however, an important key to understanding how the delegate totals are determined, and why the numerical strategies applied to a general election cannot be applied to a primary election.
For example, on March 6, when 10 states hold their voting contests on the day known as “super Tuesday,” Georgia will offer the largest delegate reward. Seventy-six delegates are at stake in Georgia’s contest, 10 more than in the swing state of Ohio, which has 66 delegates total.
Ohio has a larger congressional delegation than Georgia; 16 districts compared with Georgia’s 13. But Georgia has two Republican senators, a Republican governor and Sen. John McCain, as the GOP presidential nominee, won the state in the general election in 2008. Ohio has a Republican governor as well, but only one Republican senator and Barack Obama won that state in 2008. Because of the bonus delegate factor, Georgia wound up with more delegates than Ohio.
True to a primary season already marked by sudden and surprising ups and downs, Mitt Romney has jumped back into the lead in Michigan’s Republican Primary race. The vote’s on Tuesday.En Arizona:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Romney with 40% of the vote and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum with 34%. The poll was conducted on Thursday night, following the last scheduled debate among the GOP candidates.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has widened his lead over leading challenger Rick Santorum in the Arizona Republican Primary race with the vote just four days away.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Arizona Republican Primary Voters finds Romney leading Santorum 42% to 29%. The survey, taken after the last scheduled debate of the GOP candidates, finds Romney up three points and Santorum down two from a week ago when it was a 39% to 31% race.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earns 16% support, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with eight percent (8%), marking virtually no change for either man from the previous survey. Only one percent (1%) favors another candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.
