National Review:
Newt Gingrich isn’t on the ballot, thanks to his campaign’s decision not to file. (Missouri’s caucuses, held beginning in mid-March, will determine the state’s delegates, so the primary is a non-binding “beauty contest.”) That leaves Tuesday’s primary as a showdown between Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Santorum.
Missouri GOP strategist Jeff Roe calls the election a “referendum on Rick Santorum,” saying the Missouri primary is a test for Santorum to see if he “can match his narrative that he’s the one who can beat Romney and consolidate conservatives.”
“This is a chance for him to prove his narrative is true,” Roe says, adding that he thinks Santorum needs to either clear the 50 percent mark in the state or beat Romney by double digits to make his case.
(...) “I think Santorum will carry Missouri,” predicts Missouri Republican strategist James Harris, noting the state’s conservative and pro-life leanings. Another factor that could boost Santorum: In southern Missouri, evangelicals form a considerable chunk of the GOP base.
Norm Baxter, an RNC committeeman from Chesterfield Township in St. Louis County, agrees that there is new interest in Santorum in his conservative-leaning area. “A growing number of conservatives in this part of the state have shown a real interest in Santorum, and they think that he brings the conservative credentials that we need,” Baxter says. “I can sense the momentum behind him is beginning to increase and you’re seeing a surge for him.”
Meanwhile, Santorum is buoyed by the fact that he’s the only candidate to make a play for Missouri. Red, White, and Blue Fund, the super PAC behind Santorum, is running ads. Unlike Romney and Paul, Santorum has campaigned in the Show Me State in recent days.
If Santorum does win Missouri, the challenge will be for him to present it as a meaningful win.
2 comentarios:
Me gusta la clase de campaña que ha echo Santorum. Hablando con la gente, pisando el terreno y gastando tiempo y energías. No es ni una macro-campaña empresarial con gran financiación como la de Romney ni una campaña caótica como la de Gingrich. Ha echo las cosas bien y por eso ganó en Iowa. Creo que aunque tenga prácticamente imposible la nominación se merece un buen resultado en los estados que votarán el día 7. Por otra parte, si le sigue haciendo a Romney el favor de dividir el voto conservador, no digo la vicepresidencia pero algún puesto le podrá dar. O le podrá ayudar a volver al Senado o al Congreso.
Es una campaña similar a la de Huckabee en 2008. Con menos talento que Huckabee, y menos respaldo mediático, pero con más esfuerzo. Se está redimiendo del dolor de su derrota de 2006 en Pennsylvania.
De todas maneras, en el momento en que significase una amenaza para las opciones de Romney, empezaría el bombardeo de ataques y los votantes empezarían a tener una opinión menso favorable de él. Esa es la diferencia entre tener dinero y no tenerlo.
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