jueves, 9 de febrero de 2012

Recuento de delegados

No hay acuerdo en las proyecciones sobre el número total de delegados que tendría cada candidato después de los caucuses de Colorado y Minnesota. Tomaremos como referencia a Associated Press, que es la más consultada por las campañas.

Según Associated Press:



Según The New York Times:



Según CNN:



Según CBS:



John Hayward (Human Events) señala que, si Florida cambiara finalmente la regla de entregar todos los delegados al ganador, por un reparto proporcional, como pretende Gingrich, en estos momentos habría prácticamente un empate a delegados entre Romney y Santorum.
If these percentages hold up throughout the delegate selection process - and keep in mind that Missouri will essentially start from scratch again next month - Santorum would end up with 71 delegates, compared to current totals of 109 for Romney and 38 for Gingrich. But Florida's assignment of all 50 delegates to primary winner Romney has been challenged as a violation of party rules, and if that challenge prevails, Romney would lose 23 from his total, while Gingrich would pick up 16, and Santorum 7.

That would leave Romney and Santorum virtually tied in the delegate count, with 86 for Romney versus 78 for Santorum. Computing those totals involves a lot of assumptions, so they should be taken with a grain of salt, but it's food for thought when testing the solidity of front-runner Romney's lead.