Boston prepara una sospechosa gira para dentro de 10 días

(Foto: Getty)

CNN:

Mitt Romney's presidential campaign is quietly laying the groundwork for a high-profile blitz of several key battleground states in the run-up to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, and Republicans briefed on the plans say it has all the trappings of a vice presidential rollout tour.

On the heels of his rocky trip overseas, Romney will spend the coming days maintaining the kind of schedule he has kept for much of the summer, with appearances and fundraisers in medium-sized cities in various swing states. Romney will visit Colorado, Nevada and Indiana this week, and make stops in Ohio next week.

But beginning August 10th, Romney will ramp up his campaign operation with a splashy four-day bus tour targeting the largest media markets in several of the states that will decide the November election, CNN has learned.

And in a show of force and party unity, Romney will be joined at each stop by prominent Republican officials and campaign surrogates.

Some details are still murky, and Republicans cautioned that they are subject to change, but on August 11th, Romney will hit three of Virginia's biggest population hubs along I-95 - the Washington, D.C. metro area, Richmond and Norfolk - before heading down to North Carolina the following day.

On Aug. 13, the Monday after the Olympic Summer Games finish in London, Romney will arrive in Florida for campaign stops in Jacksonville, Orlando and Miami.

Romney aides are also scouting multiple campaign venues in Ohio for later that week, knowledgeable Republican sources told CNN. Other states may also be added to the itinerary that week.

"Sounds like V.P. week," said one Republican familiar with the schedule, who did not want to be identified revealing the campaign’s plans. “Hitting the big markets in the big states. It just makes sense.”

El 10 de agosto cae en viernes. Obama anunció a Biden un sábado y McCain a Palin un viernes.

Como dice Peter Hamby en ese artículo de CNN, los tres primeros estados confirmados de la gira son Virginia, Carolina del Norte y Florida. Si el elegido procede de algún estado competitivo, lo normal es que su estado sea de los primeros en ser incluido en la lista. Eso apuntaría a Bob McDonnell y Marco Rubio. Dick Morris no suele ser bueno haciendo predicciones, pero el otro día en Fox News señalaba precisamente esos dos nombres.

PostData: Aunque hay algo que me confunde. Deja Ohio para el cuarto día. Empieza en Virginia y va bajando hacia el Sur, parando en Carolina del Norte, camino de Florida. Y después, ¿sube a Ohio? Sería más lógico pasar de Ohio a Virginia o de Virginia a Ohio, en los primeros dos días. Por alguna razón, quieren que Virginia sea la primera parada o más bien que Ohio sea la última porque bien podría ir en el segundo día, después de Virginia. Aunque tampoco sabemos dónde estará el día 10. Igual está en Minnesota. O en Wisconsin. O en Boston. Tal vez en New Hampshire; allí ha hecho todos los anuncios importantes.

Obama dona 5,000 dólares a su campaña

El Presidente Obama ha donado simbólicamente 5,000 dólares a su campaña de reelección. Es la última iniciativa de su campaña para animar a los pequeños donantes.

"News"

Anuncio de Crossroads para nueve estados competitivos.

CBS NEWS: "Buenas noches. Esta es la peor recuperación económica que América haya tenido nunca."

NARRADORA: "41 meses consecutivos de desempleo por encima del 8%. Casi 4 millones de empleos menos de los que el Presidente Obama predijo. 23 millones de americanos sin un trabajo a tiempo completo. El resultado de las fracasadas políticas de estímulo del Presidente Obama."

CBS NEWS: "Esta es la peor recuperación económica que América haya tenido nunca."

NARRADORA: "Dile (a Obama): para un crecimiento real de empleo, deja de gastar y recorta la deuda."

"Believe In Our Future"

Boston ha lanzado el primer spot biográfico de Romney. Durante 60 segundos, el candidato conduce mientras recuerda su experiencia en los negocios, los Juegos Olímpicos y la política.

Se desconoce cuánto han pagado por emitir el anuncio pero lo mas probable es que sea parte de la compra de más de 7 millones de dólares en ocho estados competitivos anunciada la semana pasada de forma conjunta por Team Romney y el RNC.

GOBERNADOR ROMNEY: "Mi experiencia fue que tuve la oportunidad de empezar mi propio negocio. Sé lo que es querer contratar a gente y preguntarte si vas a ser capaz de pagar las cuentas más adelante. La libertad y la libre empresa son lo que crea empleos, no el gobierno. De esas experiencias, me marché para tener la oportunidad de dirigir los Juegos Olímpicos de Salt Lake City en 2002. Llegué y me encontré con que no enfrentábamos solo un escándalo, sino que también nos enfrentábamos a una crisis financiera. Cuando los Juegos Olímpicos terminaron, teníamos 100 millones de dólares que donamos para el futuro del deporte olímpico. La experiencia real fue en Massachusetts. Me topé con un presupuesto gravemente desequilibrado. Recortamos nuestros gastos. Nuestra Legislatura era demócrata en un 85% y en cada uno de los cuatro años que fui Gobernador, equilibramos el presupuesto. Quiero utilizar esas experiencias para ayudar a los americanos a tener un futuro mejor. Creemos en nuestro país. Creemos en nosotros mismos. Creemos que los mejores días de América están por llegar."

NARRADOR: "Cree en la América que construiste. Cree en que podemos construirla otra vez."

La primera hispana

Con la designación del Alcalde de San Antonio, Julián Castro, como keynote speaker de la convención demócrata, los desinformados os dirán que es el primer hispano que asume el reto. En realidad es el segundo. La primera fue Katherine Davalos Ortega en la convención republicana de 1984, en Dallas. Todavía no he visto hoy a nadie hacer mención a este precedente.

- Lista de keynote speakers demócratas (1900-2004)

- Lista de keynote speakers republicanos (1916-2004)

Los últimos, en 2008, fueron Mark Warner para los demócratas y Rudy Giuliani para los republicanos.

Romney cierra su gira en Varsovia

En Varsovia, la última parada de su gira internacional, el candidato republicano ha ensalzado la libertad económica, ha dicho que EEUU y Polonia comparten un sistema común de creencias, refiriéndose a la historia polaca (la resistencia frente a los nazis y los soviéticos) como ejemplo inspirador para los americanos, y ha hecho un elogio del legado de Juan Pablo II.

De las Olimpiadas a Gobernador

(Foto: Reuters)

Rescato dos artículos del archivo de The Desert News, que dejan ver un poco cómo Mitt Romney aprovechó el tirón de los Juegos Olímpicos de Salt Lake City para dar el salto a la política.

En el primero, de dos páginas, fechado en verano de 2001, ya se empezaba a especular con la posibilidad, y la única duda era dónde: en Utah, donde había vivido los tres años anteriores, o en Massachusetts, donde había desarrollado su carrera en los negocios y había vivido casi toda su vida adulta.

En el segundo, de tres páginas, se habla ya de los esfuerzos del GOP de Massachsuetts para reclutarlo como candidato a Gobernador a comienzos de 2002.

Julián Castro será el keynote speaker en Charlotte

El joven Alcalde hispano de San Antonio, Julián Castro, anuncia en el video que Chicago lo ha seleccionado para que sea el encargado de dar el keynote address (el discurso que marca la pauta de la convención) en la Convención Demócrata.

Informa Univision:

San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro will deliver the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention in September, becoming the first Latino ever to be chosen for the prestigious slot.

Castro, 37, will address the crowd on the opening night of the convention on Tuesday Sept. 4 in Charlotte, N.C., where Democrats will officially renominate President Obama for a second term. Castro’s prime speaking spot is sure to stoke speculation about his political future, since Obama’s keynote address in 2004 helped launch his national political career. As is tradition, also speaking that night will be the First Lady, Michelle Obama.

(...) The selection of Castro is the most evident sign yet that Democrats view him as a rising star within the party who could one day run for the nation’s highest office.

The duty of keynote speaker is typically bequeathed to promising political figures. Barack Obama’s keynote address, delivered while he was a little-known Illinois state senator, introduced him to the national stage on his way to winning a seat in the U.S. Senate at the age of 43. Four years later, he would be elected as the nation’s first black president.

Greta Van Susteren (Fox News) entrevista a Romney

Primera parte de una entrevista grabada en Israel.

Wolf Blitzer (CNN) entrevista a Romney

Entrevista grabada en Israel.

Obama recaudó ayer 2.4 millones en Nueva York

Newsday:

At a $40,000-a-plate fundraiser in midtown Manhattan last night, President Barack Obama predicted a tight election against a well-financed Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, but still liked his chances at winning a second term.

"If the election were held today it would be close, but I think we'd win," Obama told a group of 60 supporters gathered at the upscale NoMad Hotel in the Flatiron District. The fundraiser was expected to generate $2.4 million for the president.

(...) His remarks came as federal campaign reports show Romney leading in fundraising on Long Island.

From January 2011 through the end of June this year, Romney has raised $3.4 million to Obama's $3.2 million on Long Island, according to a Newsday analysis of federal campaign reports.

Romney is also counting on $2.4 million in Long Island donations to Restore Our Future, a super PAC supporting his bid for the White House. Priorities USA, a super PAC supporting Obama, raised $11,200 on Long Island during that same period.

Convención de Charlotte: durará 3 días; Elizabeth Warren precederá a Clinton en la penúltima noche; todavía no hay keynote speaker

The Boston Globe:

Elizabeth Warren will not deliver the keynote speech at this year’s Democratic National Convention, but instead will speak immediately before Bill Clinton speaks on what party officials hope will be an energetic penultimate night.

Warren and Clinton will speak in prime time on Wednesday, Sept. 5, and form a one-two punch aimed at crystallizing the choice between President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney in the general election, the Obama campaign said.

(...) The Globe reported this month that Warren was under consideration for the high-profile keynote speech, traditionally delivered on Tuesday night.

(...) After Warren finishes her convention remarks at the Time Warner Cable Arena in Charlotte, N.C., Clinton is slated to deliver a speech that culminates with the former president formally nominating Obama for a second term.

Obama and Vice President Joe Biden will speak back-to-back Sept. 6 at Bank of America Stadium, an open-air football stadium.

The campaign would not immediately reveal the identity of the keynote speaker, who, like Warren, will speak in an arena being used for two nights before the convention is moved to the football stadium. The convention will last three nights instead of the usual four, amid Democratic fund-raising problems. The party notes that the traditional first night will fall on Labor Day this year.

"Olympics"

El Super PAC de Romney, Restore Our Future, pagará 7.2 millones por emitir este anuncio que recuerda la experiencia olímpica del candidato.

KRISTI YAMAGUCHI (una leyenda del patinaje artístico): "Como atleta, entrenas toda tu vida para ese momento único en los Juegos Olímpicos."

NARRADOR: "Pero los Juegos Olímpicos de Invierno de América estaban enfangados por escándalos y déficits. Se volvieron hacia Mitt Romney."

FRASER BULLOCK (Jefe de Operaciones de Salt Lake City 2002): "Él enfrentó un déficit de 400 millones de dólares y lo convirtió en un superávit de 100 millones de dólares."

NARRADOR: "Y después del 11 de septiembre, Romney entregó unos Juegos Olímpicos seguros."

JIMMY SHEA (corredor de skeleton): "Mitt consigue hacer las cosas. Él cambió mi vida."

KRISTI YAMAGUCHI : "Mitt Romney trajo una enorme sensación de esperanza."

DEREK PARRA (patinador de velocidad): "Mitt permitió que atletas como yo fueramos capaces de realizar nuestros sueños."

Romney obtiene el endorsement de Lech Walesa

(Foto: AP)

Mitt Romney se ha hecho con el endorsement del ex Presidente de Polonia, Nobel de la Paz y héroe anti-comunista, Lech Walesa. "Deseo que tengas éxito porque EEUU, Europa y el resto del mundo necesitan este éxito. Gobernador Romney, que obtengas éxito," le ha dicho antes de recorrer juntos los astilleros de Gdansk, donde surgió Solidaridad, el primer sindicato independiente del bloque soviético.

Walesa ha apoyado abiertamente a varios candidatos republicanos desde que lo hiciera por primera vez con George Bush en 1988. Hace dos años, viajó hasta Illinois para hacer campaña por un candidato a Gobernador de origen polaco.


(Foto: Reuters)

Antes de eso, el candidato y su mujer se han dado un baño de multitudes en las calles de Gdansk.

Si la asistencia de público cuenta, Rubio es el ganador del casting de VPs

(Foto: AP)

ABC News:

RUBIO’S CROWD COUNTS: Rubio held his first solo events on behalf of Romney this weekend and drew in large crowds. According to the Las Vegas Review Journal, a crowd of 800 attending Rubio’s rally at his old elementary school in Las Vegas Saturday, and a crowd of 200 gathered to meet Rubio outside the Iowa state capitol in Des Moines though Rubio’s appearance was ultimately canceled due to flight problems, the Des Moines Register reported.

"Déjanos continuar"

Dos gigantescos retratos de LBJ adornan el escenario de la convención demócrata de 1964 en Atlantic City. LBJ se presenta como el continuador de Roosevelt, Truman y Kennedy.

16: el GOP de Paul Ryan

(Foto: AP)

The New Yorker publica un magnífico perfil del Congresista Paul Ryan, fijándose en cómo a sus 42 años ha conseguido moldear el Partido Republicano a su imagen y semejanza, y convertirse en algo así como el Jack Kemp de su generación.

Polémica con las nuevas y estrictas leyes de identificación del votante

Bueno, lo de "estrictas" es un decir. Consiste en que los votantes muestren una identificación oficial con fotografía (permiso de conducir, tarjeta de sanidad, o una identificación emitida con ese fin por el gobierno municipal, estatal o federal) para poder votar. Los demócratas están indignados, más o menos como lo estarían ciertos partidos si de repente la ley no les permitiera empadronar en Vitoria a gente de Burgos que nunca ha vivido en Vitoria para ganar la Alcaldía.

POLITICO.com:

Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin, all viewed as important states this fall, each have enacted stricter ID laws. Florida and Ohio have cut back on early voting. And a whole host of other states have passed new ID laws as well.

As a result, millions of voters will find it much more difficult to vote on Election Day in November — some estimates, such as one from the Brennan Center of Justice last fall, put the number of those affected nationwide at more than 5 million. In Pennsylvania alone, the state’s Transportation Department released figures showing that more than 750,000 registered voters in the state — 9.2 percent of voters there — do not have the required forms of ID to vote in November.

(...) The laws tend to disproportionately affect young voters and minorities — key Obama demographics — so the new restrictions will have an outsize impact on Democratic turnout. In Pennsylvania, for example, 18 percent of Philadelphia residents, who voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008, don’t have adequate IDs to vote in 2012.

(...) Swing states that have passed voter legislation have seen strong legal pushback from Democrats and voting rights groups. For instance, the League of Women Voters and Rock the Vote have filed lawsuits against a handful of the stricter laws in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as well as other voting provisions in Florida.

Leed todo el artículo.

Empleo, corrupción y déficit son las prioridades de los votantes

Subir los impuestos a los más ricos, leitmotiv de la campaña de Obama hasta el momento, no parece un tema ganador, según la lista de prioridades de los votantes que publica hoy Gallup:

(Bill) Clinton desplazará a Biden en la convención

The New York Times informa que Chicago asignará un discurso en prime-time al Presidente Clinton en la Convención Demócrata. Mucho han cambiado las cosas desde 2008, cuando los altivos asesores de Obama se resistieron hasta el último momento a conceder dos noches en prime-time a la familia Clinton. Ahora quieren/necesitan que el ex Presidente al que iban a enterrar sea la gran estrella de su fiesta...

Former President Bill Clinton is set to play a central part in the Democratic convention, aides said, and will formally place President Obama’s name into nomination by delivering a prime-time speech designed to present a forceful economic argument for why Mr. Obama deserves to win a second term.

The prominent role of Mr. Clinton, which is scheduled to be announced on Monday, signals an effort by the Obama campaign to pull out all the stops to rally Democrats when they gather for their party’s national convention in Charlotte, N.C. An even more important audience will be the voters across the country who will see the address carried by television networks.

“There isn’t anybody on the planet who has a greater perspective on not just the last four years, but the last two decades, than Bill Clinton,” David Axelrod, a top strategist to the Obama campaign, said in an interview on Sunday. “He can really articulate the choice that is before people.”

Por el contrario, según el NYT, el Vicepresidente Biden no tendrá su propia noche en la convención; le harán un hueco el último día, antes del gran discurso de Obama. Será la primera vez en muchos años que no se le reserva una noche exclusiva al Vice para que acepte la nominación. No se da el caso desde los tiempos en que el VP se elegía a última hora en la propia convención.

Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. will appear on the final night of the convention, making the case for Mr. Obama before the largest audience of the week during an outdoor speech at the Bank of America Stadium. The vice president and Mr. Obama will appear together on stage before they accept the party’s nomination for a second term in the White House.

It is unusual in recent election cycles, although not without precedent, for the vice president not to get the stage to himself during a night at the convention. But in his speech, aides said, Mr. Biden is expected to remind Americans about the last four years and the administration’s accomplishments in a difficult economic climate.

Romney visita Polonia pensando en el voto polaco-americano

National Journal:

The states that hold the largest communities of Polish-American voters overlap significantly with this year's swing states. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio all are home to numerous voters who trace their heritage to Poland, according to John Kromkowski, a Catholic University professor who studies urban and ethnic politics.

“They’re not only in swing states, but over the decades that I’ve been tracking this, they’re also swing voters,” he said. “It's sort of a mixed population, so it’s an almost archetypal swing vote.”

Kromkowski noted that many Polish-Americans live in communities that are concerned about outsourcing. While Romney will talk about economics in Poland, his team has said, outsourcing is an area in which he has been vulnerable to the Obama campaign's attacks.

One issue Romney will likely have to address to get the attention -- and votes -- of Polish-Americans is to promise to help Poland become a member of the visa waiver program, which is important for voters who still have family in Europe. President Obama offered his support for legislation to do just that during his own trip to the country in 2011.

“Unless Romney comes out very hard and says flat out that, ‘The day that I become president, we’re moving Poland into the visa waiver program,’ he’s going seem a little flat,” said John Micgiel, executive director of Columbia University’s East Central European Center.

(...) Along with the Polish vote, Romney hopes to woo Catholic voters who may appreciate his visit to a country in which the church is still enormously important. Since the 1960 election, when Catholics flocked to John F. Kennedy as the first candidate of their faith, the balance between Democrats and Republicans has evened out among the population. Still, Romney’s trip won’t have nearly the same resonance it might have had in the midst of the Cold War.

“In some ways it's an echo of an old Cold War strategy, which is that the Republican Party, going back to the 1950s, made a significant outreach to American Catholics who would have relatives behind the Iron Curtain, including Poland,” Catholic University politics professor John White said of Romney’s trip. “I don’t think that that carries the same weight today, given that that was another world, another time, and a whole other era.”

But this is an election where nibbling at the margins can help, especially after Obama may have alienated some Catholics with an executive order that requires religiously-affiliated organizations to provide their employees with insurance plans that include birth control.

Recordaréis que en las primarias ya le vimos cortejando a los polaco-americanos en Michigan.

Tim Pawlenty puede serle de utilidad en ese propósito, ya que es de origen polaco.

El PIB y la reelección de Obama

Karl Rove analiza las implicaciones políticas del bajo ritmo de crecimiento del Producto Interior Bruto. Desde 1980, este es el año de reelección presidencial con menor crecimiento del PIB.

Romney exhibe sus credenciales pro-israelíes

En un discurso ante las murallas de Jerusalén, el candidato republicano ha afirmado su compromiso con una Israel libre y fuerte con Jerusalén como capital, ha reprobado el distanciamiento diplomático de Obama, y ha dicho que EEUU tiene la obligación moral de bloquear los planes nucleares de Irán y de reconocer el derecho de Israel a defenderse.

Jan Crawford (CBS) entrevista a Romney en Israel

Reliquias de campaña

Un spot electoral de apoyo a Woodrow Wilson producido en 1912, el primero de la historia, y una encuesta teléfonica del GOP de 1952, entre otras cosas, se exhiben en la Biblioteca del Congreso.

Vicepresidenciables en los talk shows domingueros

La Senadora Kelly Ayotte (R - New Hampshire) en State of the Union (CNN).

Romney espera recaudar más de un millón en Israel

(Foto: AP)

The Associated Press:

U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney plans to raise campaign money in private while in Israel, so what he tells wealthy American supporters abroad will be kept quiet from voters at home.

Romney's campaign is barring reporters from a fundraiser at Jerusalem's King David Hotel and not saying why. At U.S. events, Romney's remarks to donors in communal spaces such as hotels are typically public.

(...) Some of Romney's wealthiest U.S. supporters plan to attend Monday's fundraiser. They include casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, who's donated millions to a group backing Romney and is a leading backer of Republican Jewish groups in the U.S.

Donors at the event were asked to contribute $50,000 or to raise $100,000. Romney advisers say the event is expected to raise more than $1 million. The fundraiser will be relatively small, likely with about 50 attendees, giving Romney the chance to interact more personally than he does in many of the larger events.

¿Casting de VPs?

El Senador Marco Rubio (R - Florida) en Nevada.



Continúa: Parte 2

El Gobernador Bobby Jindal (R - Louisiana) en Iowa.



El Senador John Thune (R - Dakota del Sur) en Virginia.

En Chicago no lamentan haber apostado por una campaña negativa

The New York Times:

With 100 days remaining before Election Day, there is an air of apprehension around the Obama campaign headquarters here. Yet there are few regrets about the tone of the race, only a conviction that the circumstances — a frail economy, intense Republican opposition and a well-financed negative campaign from Mr. Romney and his allies — left Mr. Obama no option but to fight back even if it sullies his image as a candidate of hope and change.

“Is it a different kind of race than 2008? Of course,” said David Axelrod, a senior campaign strategist. “If we were passive in the face of this onslaught we are facing, our folks would be unhappy. There are few on our side who are counseling us to sit idly by.”

(...) Polls suggest that voters might be starting to view Mr. Obama less favorably even as the race remains tight. And while it is hard to know whether the shift is related to the tone of his campaign, his advisers are acutely mindful that one of Mr. Obama’s key attributes, that voters generally like him, must be preserved to win over the undecided voters who will determine the race.

But if Mr. Obama prevails, it will almost certainly be because his team executed a plan to try to win the race in the summer to make Mr. Romney unacceptable to voters by the fall. It is a page from the 2004 playbook of President George W. Bush, whose campaign spent the same period relentlessly defining Senator John Kerry as unreliable.

Matthew Dowd, a former Republican strategist who was a top adviser on the Bush re-election campaign, refers to it as “poisoning the water table.” The parallels between 2004 and 2012 are striking, he said, with the Obama campaign putting its stamp on Mr. Romney before he introduces himself to voters.

“President Obama and his campaign have made the determination that the only way they can win this race is to create a negative impression of Mitt Romney,” said Mr. Dowd, now an independent analyst. “When people go to vote, even if they don’t like the direction of the country, they may not trust Mitt Romney.”

(...) While Mr. Obama rose through the ranks with a clarion call for a new kind of politics, there is little noticeable criticism about the tenor of the race from longtime supporters.

“There is no question the atmosphere is different than the last campaign. It has to be,” said Judd Miner, a Chicago lawyer who has known the president for two decades and still refers to him by his first name. “We learned the hard way with Kerry. It matters that Barack wins.”

Romney con Netanyahu

(Foto: Reuters)

Mitt Romney y Benjamin Netanyahu se han visto esta mañana en Jerusalén. Ha sido el primero de los dos encuentros que mantendrán a lo largo del día. Esta noche, el Primer Ministro dará una cena en honor al candidato, en la que Romney pronunciará un discurso sobre su política para Oriente Medio. Dan Senor, asesor de Romney, ha adelantado a los medios que el candidato respetaría el derecho de Israel a un ataque preventivo unilateral contra Irán para evitar que obtenga armamento nuclear.

Romney y Netanyahu se conocen desde hace décadas, cuando coincidieron en una firma de consultoría de Boston. Netanyahu estudió en el Instituto Tecnológico de Massachusetts (MIT).

Volando a Israel

(Foto: AP)

Charlie Pearce, asesor del Gobernador Romney, cuelga una bandera de Israel en el avión que lleva al candidato de Londres a Tel Aviv.

Beth Myers juega a tomarnos el pelo en twitter

Beth Myers, la mujer que está a cargo del proceso de selección del VP de Romney, publicó ayer estas dos listas en twitter:

#FF @robportman @bobmcdonnell @CondoleezzaRice @johnthune @Gov_Martinez @RickSantorum
— Beth Myers (@BethMyers2012) julio 27, 2012

#FF @KellyAyotte @timpawlenty @GovChristie @BobbyJindal @marcorubio @RepPaulRyan @NewtGingrich
— Beth Myers (@BethMyers2012) julio 27, 2012

Solo en el sur de California

Tampa y Charlotte esperan

El Alcalde de Los Angeles, Antonio Villaraigosa, que presidirá la Convención Demócrata de este año aunque sea en la otra punta del país, en Charlotte, nos cuenta cómo podemos "Estar Allí."



Mientras tanto, dos de los periódicos de mayor tirada de Tampa, el Tampa Bay Times y el Tampa Tribune ya tienen secciones dedicadas a la Convención Republicana.

Piers Morgan (CNN) entrevista a Mitt y Ann Romney en Londres

Continúa: Parte 2 / Parte 3

"I Believe"

Este spot de Obama se pasará hoy durante la ceremonia de apertura de los Juegos Olímpicos. Deben haber pagado un pastón.

PRESIDENTE OBAMA: "Somos una nación de trabajadores, hacedores y soñadores. Trabajamos duro por lo que conseguimos. Y todo lo que pedimos es que nuestro duro trabajo sea recompensado. Creo que la manera de hacer crecer la economía es desde el medio. Creo en la lucha por la clase media porque si ellos prosperan, todos prosperaremos. Esa es la idea de América y es por eso por que América es la nación más grande de la tierra."



Boston no ha comprado espacio publicitario en las Olimpiadas, pero sí lo ha hecho su Super PAC, Restore Our Future, con la idea de exhibir anuncios sobre la experiencia de Romney en Salt Lake City 2002.

Los últimos 100 días a través de Gallup

El próximo domingo entraremos en los últimos 100 días de campaña.

USA Today ha publicado un especial que resume esos últimos 100 días en las últimas 10 campañas presidenciales, que incluye un pequeño repaso a las encuestas de Gallup.

Ya que dicen que es la elección que más se parece a esta, he dejado el 2004 para el final.

1972

Gallup Poll (Aug. 7): Nixon 57%, McGovern 31%
Gallup Poll (Aug. 27): Nixon 64%, McGovern 30%

Gallup Poll (Sept. 25): Nixon 61%, McGovern 33%

Gallup Poll (Nov. 4): Nixon 61%, McGovern 35%

Final result: Nixon 61%, McGovern 38%

1976

Gallup Poll (July 19) Carter 62%, Ford 29%

Gallup Poll (Aug. 30): Carter 51%, Ford 36%

Gallup Poll (Oct. 30): Ford 47%, Carter 46%

Final result: Carter 50%, Ford 48%

1980

Gallup Poll (Aug. 4): Reagan 45%, Carter 29% (justo después de la convención republicana)

Gallup Poll (Aug. 18):  Carter 39%, Reagan 38%

Gallup Poll (Nov. 2): Reagan 46%, Carter 43%

Final result: Reagan 51%, Carter 41%

1984

Gallup Poll (July 30): Reagan 53%, Mondale 41%

Gallup Poll (Nov. 3): Reagan 57%, Mondale 39%

Final result: Reagan 59%, Mondale 41%

1988

Gallup Poll (July 26): Dukakis 54%, Bush 37%

Gallup Poll (Aug. 7): Dukakis 49%, Bush 42%

Gallup Poll (Oct. 9): Bush 49%, Dukakis 43%

Gallup Poll (Nov. 5): Bush 53%, Dukakis 41%

Final result: Bush 53%, Dukakis 46%

1992

Gallup Poll (July 26): Clinton 56%, Bush 36% (justo después de la convención demócrata y la retirada temporal de Perot)

Gallup Poll (Aug. 22): Clinton 52%, Bush 42%

Gallup Poll (Nov. 2): Clinton 43%, Bush 34%, Perot 16%

Final result: Clinton 43%, Bush 37%, Perot 19%

1996

Gallup Poll (July 28): Clinton 50%, Dole 35%, Perot 10%

Gallup Poll (Sept. 4): Clinton 54%, Dole 35%, Perot 5%

Gallup Poll (Nov. 3): Clinton 51%, Dole 34%, Perot 9%

Final result: Clinton 49%, Dole 41%, Perot 8%

2000

Gallup Poll (July 26): Bush 46%, Gore 41%

Gallup Poll (Aug. 19): Gore 48%, Bush 44%

Gallup Poll (Oct. 20): Bush 46%, Gore 42%

Gallup Poll (Nov. 6): Gore 45%, Bush 44%

Final result: Gore 48%, Bush 48% (Bush wins Electoral College vote)

2008

Gallup Poll (July 20): Obama 47%, McCain 41%

Gallup Poll (Sept. 2): Obama 49%, McCain 43%

Gallup Poll (Oct. 5): Obama 50%, McCain 42%

Gallup Poll (Nov. 2): Obama 53%, McCain 40%

Final result: Obama 53%, McCain 46%

2004

En 2004, Gallup publicaba una encuesta de votantes registrados y otra de votantes probables (likely voters), y no a diario como ahora, sino más o menos semanalmente.

Votantes Registrados

Jul 30 - Aug 1: Bush 48%, Kerry 47%
Aug 9-11: Bush 46%, Kerry 45%
Aug 23-25: Bush 46%, Kerry 46%
Sep 2-5: Bush 48%, Kerry 46%
Sep 13-15: Bush 50%, Kerry 42%
Sep 24-26: Bush 53%, Kerry 42%
Oct 1-3: Bush 49%, Kerry 47%
Oct 9-10: Bush 48%, Kerry 48%
Oct 14-16: Bush 49%, Kerry 46%
Oct 22-24: Bush 49%, Kerry 47%
Oct 29-31: Kerry 48%, Bush 46%

Likely Voters

Jul 30 - Aug 1: Bush 51%, Kerry 47%
Aug 9-11: Bush 50%, Kerry 47%
Aug 23-25: Bush 50%, Kerry 47%
Sep 2-5: Bush 52%, Kerry 45%
Sep 13-15: Bush 55%, Kerry 42%
Sep 24-26: Bush 52%, Kerry 44%
Oct 1-3: Bush 49%, Kerry 49%
Oct 9-10: Kerry 50%, Bush 48%
Oct 14-16: Bush 52%, Kerry 44%
Oct 22-24: Bush 52%, Kerry 46%
Oct 29-31: Bush 49%, Kerry 47%

Final Result: Bush 51%, Kerry 48%

Este año, de momento solo está haciendo de votantes registrados.

Romney recauda 2 millones en Londres

(Foto: Reuters)

The New York Times:

According to the campaign, roughly 250 people attended the event, which was expected to bring in at least $2 million.

(...) Among those writing the biggest checks will be the chairmen of the dinner event, where the price of entry was $25,000 to $75,000 per head: Louis Bacon, a hedge fund billionaire and founder of Moore Capital Management, who splits time between New York and London; Karl Peterson, who heads European operations for the Texas Pacific Group, a private equity firm; and Dwight Poler, a managing director in Europe for Bain Capital, Mr. Romney’s former private equity firm.

Co-chairmen included Steven Chasan, another executive from Moore Capital Management, and Eric Varvel, the chief executive of Credit Suisse’s investment bank.

(...) So far Barclays, Britain’s third largest bank, has been at the scandal’s forefront, and the bank’s former chief executive, Robert E. Diamond Jr., withdrew his name from Thursday’s event after he was forced to resign from the bank. Patrick Durkin, a senior lobbyist for Barclays in Washington who has raised more than $1 million for Mr. Romney, remained a co-chairman.

Obama en la conferencia de la National Urban League

"It Worked?"

Obama lo volvió a hacer hace dos días. Volvió a elegir mal sus palabras para defender su gestión económica. "Intentamos nuestro plan... y funcionó," dijo el Presidente en un rally en la Costa Oeste. El problema está en que una mayoría no cree que funcionara y no espera que el Presidente crea que funcionó.

Boston ha respondido con un web ad que confronta esas palabras con el testimonio de personas anónimas. Si tiene tirón, no descartéis que se convierta en anuncio de tv. Así empezó lo de "usted no ha forjado su negocio."

"Women's Choices"

Este anuncio se emitirá en ocho estados competitivos. Producido y pagado por Team Obama, intenta presentar a Romney como un candidato anti-mujeres por estar en contra del aborto. Apelar a la mujer con el aborto (eufemísticamente conocido como "la elección de la mujer"), algo muy eficaz en los años 70 y 80, incluso en los 90, es una táctica que en los últimos años ha quedado algo trasnochada, pero Chicago sigue recurriendo a ella.

El spot es un arma de doble filo, porque también ayuda a movilizar a los conservadores sociales que alberguen dudas sobre Romney y que son parte fundamental de la base republicana.

JENNI: "Nunca me había sentido así. Da miedo ser mujer en estos tiempos. Mitt Romney está muy desconectado de la realidad."

NARRADOR: "Mitt Romney se opone a la cobertura anticonceptiva que se requiere. Y Romney apoya derrocar la ley Roe v. Wade. Romney apoyó una legislación que prohibía todos los abortos, incluso en casos de violación e incesto."

JENNI: "Hay mucho por hacer. Necesitamos atacar nuestros problemas. No la elección de la mujer."

Las 10 zonas más calientes de la semana en la guerra de anuncios

First Read:

*** This week’s 10 hottest markets: Below is our latest weekly look at the 10 hottest advertising markets in the presidential race (per advertising points for the week of 7/23 to 7/29). Reminder: Colorado is missing because of the decisions by both campaigns to pull their ads down post-Aurora. A few other observations: 1) In most of these markets, Obama and Romney are running fairly even, but GOP outside groups are giving Team Romney the edge in advertising points; 2) the states here are Ohio (3 markets), Virginia (2), Florida (2), North Carolina (2), and Nevada (1); and 3)  Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA is this week’s No. 1 market.

1. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA: 4 advertisers (Obama 1100, Romney 1000, Crossroads GPS 650, RNC 215).

2. Tampa, FL: 5 advertisers (Romney 840, Obama 775, Crossroads GPS 670, American Crossroads 600, Priorities USA 200).

3. Cincinnati, OH: 5 advertisers (Romney 1100, Obama 1000, Crossroads GPS 400, American Crossroads 265, RNC 100).

4. Toledo, OH: 5 advertisers (Obama 1000, Romney 980, Crossroads 400, American Crossroads 350, RNC 200).

5. Reno, NV: 5 advertisers (Obama 1300, Romney 650, Crossroads GPS 450, American Crossroads 370, RNC 250).

6. Greenville-New Bern, NC: 5 advertisers (Romney 970, Obama 600, Crossroads GPS 550, American Crossroads 515, RNC 350).

7. Richmond-Petersburg, VA: 5 advertisers (Obama 1200, Romney 1100, Crossroads GPS 270, Priorities USA 240, RNC 125).

8. Columbus, OH: 6 advertisers (Obama 1000, Romney 1000, Crossroads GPS 370, American Crossroads 260, Priorities USA 140, RNC 150).

9. Orlando, FL: 5 advertisers (Obama 875, Romney 860, Crossroads GPS 475, American Crossroads 425, Priorities USA 274).

10. Charlotte, NC: 5 advertisers (Romney 1000, Obama 800, American Crossroads 420, Crossroads GPS, 390, RNC 240).

Reuniones con políticos ingleses y una recaudación de fondos

  Fuente de las fotos: AP

Las reuniones con David Cameron, Tony Blair, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband y William Hague están bien, pero lo más importante a efectos prácticos para Romney es la recaudación de fondos que celebrará esta noche con ejecutivos estadounidenses afincados en Londres y hombres de negocios estadounidenses que están en la ciudad con motivo de las Olimpiadas.

The Telegraph:

A group of senior US financiers will tonight host a $25,000-a-plate fundraising dinner in London for US Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

Eric Varvel, the chief executive of Credit Suisse’ investment bank, and Woody Johnson, owner of the New York Jets American football team are among the guests at the event, according to Financial News.

The event is being held to coincide with the opening of the Olympic Games and will take place at an undisclosed location in London.

Other attendees include Dwight Poler, a senior figure in the European business of Bain Capital, which Mr Romney co-founded.

Karl Peterson, head of TPG Capital Europe, will also be there. He donated $2,500 to Romney’s campaign in June last year, according to Federal Election Commission records.

Executives at Barclays have reportedly donated more than $1m (£645,000) to to US Republican presidential candidate Mr Romney's election campaign. They are set to hand over more this evening.

Pioneros del directo

No es Tristanbraker cazando fantasmas. Es un técnico de la NBC manejando un aparatoso equipo de TV con cámara y mochila con antena en el International Amphitheatre de Chicago, durante la Convención Republicana de 1952. Fue la primera convención que se televisó en directo. El artilugio, diseñado por los ingenieros de la NBC y la Radio Corporation of America, funcionaba durante dos horas en un radio de aproximadamente un kilómetro desde la estación base y permitía al cámara moverse por lugares hasta entonces impensables.

Salt Lake City, 2002: el trampolín de Romney a la política

Un breve documental de The Boston Globe sobre el papel de Mitt Romney como organizador de los Juegos Olímpicos de Salt Lake City 2002.



The Desert News publica un reportaje que titula, "Qué nos dicen las Olimpiadas de Salt Lake City sobre una Presidencia de Romney".

16: los neoyorkinos aman a Cuomo pero Hillary es la hija favorita para las presidenciales

The Associated Press:

A new poll shows New Yorkers still love Gov. Andrew Cuomo. But as president? Not so much.

The Quinnipiac University poll finds 73 percent of New Yorkers approve of the job the Democrat is doing in Albany.

Even 69 percent of Republicans approve of Cuomo.

Just 36 percent of those polled want Cuomo to run for president in 2016. Another 30 percent weren't decided and 39 percent said he shouldn't run for president in 2016.

Sixty-one percent think Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would be a good president.

Fifty-four percent of New Yorkers also felt Clinton would make a better president than Cuomo.

¿Casting de VPs?

Alex Moe y Andrew Rafferty, de NBC News, nos traen detalles del enorme despliegue de representantes, la mayoría de ellos vicepresidenciables, que ha montado Boston para estos días en que Romney estará de gira por el extranjero.

Those are just a few of the headliners of Mitt Romney’s summer surrogate tour, a whirlwind blitz that begins Thursday and will feature the presumptive nominee’s most prominent supporters hitting swing states throughout the country while he is overseas.

(...) The surrogate surge begins on Thursday when Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal head to Iowa.

(...) Also on Thursday and Friday, South Dakota Sen. John Thune will be in Virginia where he will bracket President Barack Obama’s visit to the Old Dominion state on Friday.

On Friday, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani heads to Florida, a place where voters know him well.  During his 2008 presidential run, Giuliani spent the majority of his time and campaign resources in the Sunshine State.  He’ll even host a “Cafe Con Rudy” to reach out to Hispanic voters.

(...) On Saturday, former Minnesota governor and one-time presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty will make an appearance in Raleigh, North Carolina.  It was in the Tar Heel State last month where he gave a rousing and well received speech at the state's Republican convention.  While North Carolina has seen limited attention from Republicans in recent weeks, it will likely be a hotbed for activity next month as Republicans prepare to distract from the Democratic National Convention being held in Charlotte at the beginning of September.

And while Pawlenty is in the East, one of the party’s most popular young conservatives will be representing the Republican ticket in the West.  Florida Sen. Marco Rubio will spend Saturday in Las Vegas, NV, the city where he spent a majority of his youth. There he will hold a rally in the elementary school he attended as a child, marking his first solo public appearance on Romney’s behalf.

(...) Republican National Committee chair Reince Priebus will be traveling on a bus through Wisconsin this Sunday.  Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin may also join.

Not to be forgotten is the man who many consider the frontrunner in the VP search -- Ohio Sen. Rob Portman. He has spent most of his weekends away from Washington helping Romney in some capacity in his home state.  Last Friday he attended a Romney fundraiser in Lima, Ohio, and the weekend before that, he both bracketed  President Obama’s campaign stop in Cincinnati, OH and helped to open a Romney Victory office the southwest part of the Buckeye State.

On Monday he’ll take his act on the road to campaign in Pennsylvania.  It will mark the second time Portman will hit the Keystone State in hopes of turning the traditionally blue state to red.

South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who has not campaigned for the GOP nominee for months, will also hit the trail in the coming days.  She will travel to Michigan on Romney’s behalf.

Two potential VP contenders -- New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte -- are notably not on this weekend’s surrogate blitz. However, both Christie and Ayotte have campaigned for Romney in recent weeks.

Obama ha emitido el doble de anuncios que Romney pero los Super PACs republicanos han emitido doce veces más anuncios que los Super PACs demócratas

Bloomberg:

Obama’s campaign ran ads 19,583 times, more than twice the 9,165 spots run by Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Yet the anti-Obama campaign was more visible because of three groups that together ran 18,200 ads criticizing the president.

The anti-Obama groups are Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies, a non-profit 501c4 organization that ran 8,523 spots; American Crossroads, its affiliated super-PAC, which ran 3,081 spots; and the Republican National Committee, which ran ads 6,596 times. These three groups together ran twice as many ads as Romney during the seven-day period.

Priorities USA Action, a super-PAC backing Obama, ran ads 1,363 times, all attacking Romney’s past as a private-equity executive. The Service Employees International Union ran 136 Spanish-language ads attacking Romney.

Add that all up, and the president and his allies were outgunned in television ads, 27,365 to 21,082, by Romney and his surrogates.

Brian Williams (NBC) entrevista a Romney en Londres

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Jeb a Mitt: elige a Rubio

The Associated Press:

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush says he thinks Sen. Marco Rubio is ready to be vice president and that he has shared those thoughts with Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

(...) In an interview with The Associated Press, Bush says he pitched Rubio during a recent conversation he had with Romney. He says that Romney didn't indicate which way the search for a vice presidential candidate was taking him.

Gallup: el entusiasmo demócrata cae drásticamente desde 2004 y 2008

Gallup:

Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual" in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004.

Ya hay fecha y formato para los debates de otoño

Comisión de Debates Presidenciales (CPD):

First presidential debate (October 3, 2012, University of Denver, Denver, CO)

The debate will focus on domestic policy and be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on topics to be selected by the moderator and announced several weeks before the debate.

The moderator will open each segment with a question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the topic.

Vice presidential debate (October 11, 2012, Centre College, Danville, KY)

The debate will cover both foreign and domestic topics and be divided into nine time segments of approximately 10 minutes each. The moderator will ask an opening question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the question.

Second presidential debate (October 16, 2012, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY)

The second presidential debate will take the form of a town meeting, in which citizens will ask questions of the candidates on foreign and domestic issues. Candidates each will have two minutes to respond, and an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate a discussion. The town meeting participants will be undecided voters selected by the Gallup Organization.

Third presidential debate (October 22, Lynn University, Boca Raton, FL)

The format for the debate will be identical to the first presidential debate and will focus on foreign policy.

Lo que no se conoce todavía son los moderadores. Debemos esperar lo peor de cada casa.

16: Jeb toma el relevo familiar

El Presidente George W. Bush visitó ayer el cuartel general de Romney en Boston, seguramente para aclarar que apoya al 100% a Romney a pesar de haber rechazado la invitación para asistir a la convención de Tampa. Y es que la del próximo mes, será la primera convención republicana desde 1976 que no contará con la presencia de ningún ex Presidente, porque tampoco irá Bush 41, que ya no está para esos trotes.

Una posible explicación es que los Bush quieren facilitarle a Romney la necesaria ruptura con el pasado más reciente, para que pueda ofrecer una alternativa propia. Pero sí estará, sin embargo, Jeb Bush, que por primera vez ejercerá de cabeza de familia en un gran evento nacional que además se celebra en su casa (Florida). Y el deseo de no eclipsar a Jeb también justificaría la ausencia de sus padres, hermano y cuñada. The Week lo cita como una de las posibles razones:

Bush is giving Jeb a chance to shine

Sure, Dubya won't be there, says Adam C. Smith in the Tampa, Fla., Times. Nor will his father and fellow former president George H.W. Bush, who is 88 and has been using a wheelchair recently. But the GOP's most prominent political family will still make its presence felt. Dubya's brother, former Florida governor "Jeb Bush will be there, and you can be sure plenty of Florida delegates will be wishing he were the one accepting the nomination." Jeb's son, George P. Bush, 36, who co-chairs a political action committee for young conservatives, will also attend.

De ser así, esto nos ofrecería indicios bastante ciertos de que todavía hay ambición en la familia por que uno de sus miembros alcance otra vez la Presidencia, ya sea en 2016 (si Romney pierde) o en 2020 (por ejemplo, siguiendo la vía Hillary, que consistiría en colocar a Jeb como Secretario de Estado de Romney, para seguir ganando prestigio mientras se mantiene al margen de las contrariedades de la política doméstica).

La historia dice: solo gana la reelección aquel Presidente que amplía apoyos

USA Today:

Quick, now. Try to name big segments of the electorate, or even prominent individuals, who opposed Barack Obama in 2008 but have joined his campaign for re-election. Difficulty in answering that question caused even the president, in a fleeting moment of candor, to suggest that he could easily lose the White House.

On May 10, Obama soured the mood of enthusiastic donors at a Seattle fundraiser by telling them that "this election is actually going to be even closer than the last." In other words, he knows that he has lost supporters, rather than gaining them, during his three-and-a-half years of leadership.

A "closer election" means that one of the few iron rules of U.S. politics indicates he'll lose his bid for a second term. History offers not one example of a chief executive whose popular appeal declined during his first term of office but nonetheless managed to eke out a re-election victory, as Obama proposes to do. Among the 24 elected presidents who sought second terms, all 15 who earned back-to-back victories drew more support in bids for re-election than they did in their previous campaigns.

In the past century, this base-broadening for re-elected presidents hasn't been modest or subtle. When Woodrow Wilson campaigned for re-election in 1916 (without Teddy Roosevelt as a third party competitor), his percentage of the popular vote soared by 7 points. Franklin Roosevelt in 1936 enhanced his already formidable popularity by 4 percentage points, and Dwight Eisenhower's landslide re-election in 1956 saw his share of the electorate rise from 55% to 57%. Richard Nixon's improvement amounted to a staggering 17 points in 1972, while Ronald Reagan's re-election percentage went up by 8 points.

More recently, Bill Clinton faced Ross Perot's "Reform Party" challenge in both his presidential contests but nonetheless raised his popular vote percentage from 43% in 1992 to 49% in his 1996 re-election campaign against Bob Dole. Even George W. Bush, whose disputed victory in 2000 and tumultuous first term produced toxic levels of partisan rancor, substantially improved his standing with the public, drawing an impressive 11.6 million more votes in his 2004 re-election campaign than in his contest with Al Gore, improving from 48% of the popular vote to a slight majority.

In fact, prominent Democrats who backed Gore in the prior election rallied to support the embattled incumbent and played prominent roles at the Republican Convention, including the keynote speaker, Democratic Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia. Other leading Democrats, such as former New York City mayor Ed Koch, Jimmy Carter's attorney general Griffin Bell and St. Paul Mayor Randy Kelly, all offered impassioned backing for Bush.

Por qué 2012 no es como 2004

William Galston, del liberal The New Republic, pone en duda que esta sea una elección como la de 2004, como Team Obama pretende. La razón: que en aquella ocasión la elección giró en torno a los temas fuertes de Bush, y en esta el tema central es el talón de Aquiles del Presidente.

The emerging conventional wisdom among many Democrats takes the form of two equations: 2012 = 2004, and Bain = Swift Boats. There’s also a supporting narrative: The negative campaign against John Kerry fatally weakened his candidacy, securing the victory of an incumbent who could not have won based on his own record. And so, the idea goes, a president whose performance the public doesn’t much like can power his way to a narrow, less than pretty win by eviscerating his challenger.

But the evidence in favor of all of these propositions is remarkably thin. The basic structure of the 2004 campaign differed fundamentally from the one we’re now enduring. The available evidence suggests that even in the short-term, the attacks on Romney have been measurably less successful than were those on Kerry. And Obama’s supporters seem to have forgotten that the reason Bush prevailed was because enough Americans ended up approving of his record and leadership in the areas they cared about the most.

In 2012, there is a single dominant issue—the economy. The people are trying to decide whether Obama has managed our economic challenges well enough to deserve another four years and, if not, whether Romney’s economic experience and plans make him an acceptable alternative.

(...) The real story of the 2004 isn’t that attacks disqualified Kerry as a potential president—they didn’t—but rather that in the two months from Labor Day until the election, the incumbent persuaded just enough people that his record warranted reelection. (His unwavering support of the war in Iraq temporarily halted the erosion of public support for his decision, despite its unexpectedly difficult aftermath.) During that period, the right track/wrong track numbers moved up, and the public’s assessment of Bush’s record on foreign policy, the war in Iraq, and the economy all improved. On the eve of the election, his overall job approval averaged about 50 percent, up from less than 48 percent in mid-summer and closely predicting the 50.7 percent share of the popular vote that he received.

Obama now faces a similar task. In the fourteenth quarter of his presidency, which ended July 19, his job approval averaged 46.8 percent—a bit higher than Gerald Ford’s 46.0 percent in mid-1976, but more than a percentage point lower than Bush’s 47.9 percent. While inductive generalizations are not necessary truths, the fact remains that no incumbent has ever been reelected with a job approval below 50 percent. The most recent CBS/NYT survey illuminates the challenge Obama confronts. Not only is his job approval down to the levels of last fall and winter, before four months of good economic news pushed them up, but also other indicators—such as right track/wrong track and management of the economy--are moving in the wrong direction. The people have noticed the difference between 225 thousand new jobs per month and 75 thousand, and they’ve drawn the obvious inference: Only 24 percent of Americans think the economy is improving, down from 33 percent in April.