Lo que le permitió a Bush salir reelegido fue una mejoría en su aprobación en el tercer trimestre del año (hasta el 50.2%) muy inusual en Presidentes en apuros. A favor de Bush jugó que la conversación de la recta final de la elección, a partir de su discurso en la convención, giró en torno a un tema (la seguridad nacional y la guerra) en el que aventajaba a su rival.
Obama's 14th quarter average is most similar to that of his immediate predecessor, George W. Bush, who won a narrow victory over John Kerry for re-election in 2004.
Obama's average is also similar to Gerald Ford's 46.0% from his eighth quarter in office, which occurred in the spring and early summer of 1976. Ford, who became president after Richard Nixon resigned, narrowly lost his attempt to win election in his own right, losing to Carter in the subsequent 1976 election.
Dramatic Improvement in Obama's Approval Unlikely in Next Quarter.
The next quarter, which stretches from late July through Oct. 19, roughly two weeks before Election Day, will give a stronger indication of Obama's chances of being re-elected.
Based on historical record, it is unlikely that Obama's approval rating will improve dramatically over the next three months. The biggest improvement any recent president had between the 14th and 15th quarter was slightly more than two percentage points for George W. Bush. In that case, the increase was enough to move Bush's average to the 50% mark. Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan also gained in quarter 15 but were already above 50%.
Carter and the elder Bush both saw decreases in approval at a time when they needed to show dramatic improvement in their public support to win re-election.