viernes, 3 de agosto de 2012

Hoy salen los datos de paro de julio

Como cada primer viernes de mes, todos pendientes del informe de empleo del Departamento de Trabajo. Los expertos esperan que se hayan creado entre 100,000 y 150,000 empleos en el mes de julio y que el índice de paro siga sin cambios en el 8.2%.

Economists expect to see 100,000 non-farm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 8.2 percent, according to Reuters. That compares to 80,000 jobs added in June. The employment report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

“We’re looking at very specific industries that helped generate a marginally better number,” said Credit Suisse economist Jonathan Basile. He expects to see 110,000 nonfarm payrolls, with pickups in construction, manufacturing and health care.

(...) Mesirow Financial chief economist Diane Swonk also expects to see construction hiring improve. “We’ve got a lot going on in apartment construction and other things,” she said. But she noted the defense industry could be one weak spot because of the industry’s concern that it will be hit by automatic spending cuts after Jan. 1, if Congress does not act to stop them.

“These producers are not gearing up and in fact, they’re holding back. They’re not staffing up,” she said.

Swonk said she expects total nonfarm payrolls of 95,000. “I’d love to be surprised on the upside, but I’m afraid I’m going to be surprised on the downside,” she said.

(...) BTIG chief global strategist Dan Greenhaus expects to see 115,000 jobs, but with the current soft trend in data, markets will not be surprised if it is lower. “If it’s anything from 75,000 to 125,000 who cares. At that level, job growth is just annoyingly slow, and it’s hard to get enthusiastic,” he said.

Greenhaus said reported job growth was probably too strong in the first quarter, when it averaged 225,000 a month, and too slow in the spring. “So hopefully over the next three months, it will turn to a more normalized pace of 130,000 to 150,000 jobs – normal for this environment,” he said.

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