lunes, 9 de julio de 2012

Gallup: igualdad en los swing states

In a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of swing states, an overwhelming majority of voters remember seeing campaign ads over the past month; most voters in other states say they haven't. In the battlegrounds, one in 12 say the commercials have changed their minds about President Obama or Republican Mitt Romney — a difference on the margins, but one that could prove crucial in a close race.

At this point, Obama is the clear winner in the ad wars. Among swing-state voters who say the ads have changed their minds about a candidate, rather than just confirmed what they already thought, 76% now support the president, vs. 16% favoring Romney.

(...) Obama and his allies have outspent Romney's side on ads so far by almost a third. Although the TV spots didn't start earlier than in recent elections, there have been more than ever before — including a negative flood from the new breed of super PACs — and they are continuing without the traditional summertime letup.

In the 12 battleground states, the race is all but tied. Obama leads Romney 47%-45% among 1,200 registered voters in the poll June 22-29 — a tick closer than Obama's 48%-44% lead among 2,404 voters in the rest of the USA over the same period.
Un empate técnico en los 12 estados competitivos en este punto de la campaña puede ser motivo de preocupación para Obama porque 1) en la lista de 12 estados, Gallup ha incluido algunos estados muy inclinados en los últimos años hacia los demócratas como Michigan, New Mexico y Wisconsin, y no ha incluido, sin embargo, estados inclinados hacia los republicanos como Indiana, Arizona o Missouri, y 2)  Obama es quien está apostando fuerte por una campaña temprana de anuncios (en Ohio ha gastado 22 millones ya, Romney 6; en Virginia 11 millones, Romney 3;  en Iowa 8-3; en Florida Obama ha gastado 15 millones más, y así en todos los estados).

Los anuncios sí están consiguiendo generar algunas dudas sobre Romney, un candidato todavía desconocido para muchos votantes. Pero eso no parece que vaya unido a un cambio en las opiniones sobre Obama, al que los votantes ya conocen demasiado bien.

Otro motivo de inquietud para el Presidente debe ser la ya muy comentada brecha en el entusiasmo:

Swing-state voters are a bit more enthusiastic about voting this year than those living elsewhere, perhaps reflecting the attention they're given in TV ads and candidate visits. Nearly half of those in battleground states are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president this year. Just under three in 10 aren't keen about it.
In the battlegrounds, the most enthusiastic voters outnumber the least enthusiastic ones by 17 percentage points. In the non-battlegrounds, the difference is 12 points.

The USA TODAY Poll shows that Republicans, who lagged in enthusiasm in the last swing states survey, have gained an edge now. That may reflect growing comfort with Romney becoming the nominee now that the GOP primaries are over. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 30% say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting, up 5 points from the spring.

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 23% are extremely enthusiastic, a 3-point dip from the last survey.

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