Ranking de The Iowa Independent

Tha Iowa Independent ha consultado con periodistas, académicos, consultores políticos, activistas republicanos, y oficiales electos para ordenar a los candidatos en función de sus posibilidades para ganar el Caucus de Iowa por lo visto hasta ahora.

(...) 1.Mike Huckabee — There were two key reasons given repeatedly by our panel for their rankings: Name recognition and proximity to Iowans. The former Arkansas governor who stole the caucus show in 2008 continues to have both. His statewide organization was never dismantled. In fact, many of those who supported Huckabee previously were called into action during the 2010 judicial retention vote in Iowa by former Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats.

“‘I like Mike’ is still the most common line in Iowa,” notes one contributor. “Huck has a strong residual organization in Iowa awaiting his run. [But] organization is not everything, and Huck’s message of small government, return to more traditional cultural norms and optimistic support for the ‘everyman’ remains as or more popular than it was in 2007.”

In contrast, however, another of our panelists warns that “Iowans are notoriously fickle on their support of someone when it comes to caucuses — just ask Tom Vilsack.”

The Huckabee brand remains a force among Iowa Republicans, and only Huckabee himself seems in a position to dismantle it. Nearly 80 percent of our participants believed Huckabee would have a repeat first place performance if the caucuses were held tonight. Half of those in the remaining 20 percent didn’t include Huckabee in their rankings at all due to their belief that he wouldn’t be running.

2.Tim Pawlenty — Proximity? Yes. Name recognition? Getting there.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty appears to have everything going for him in relation to early 2012 politics. He has the proximity to Iowa, has caught the eye of the national press, garnered support from key Iowa politicos and is honing a message that seems well received by Iowa Republicans. What Pawlenty lacks, according to our contributors, are the intangibles that Huckabee has in droves: Charisma and an ability to connect with people in small settings.

“Pawlenty will likely be a lot of people’s second choice, which is both good and bad. There certainly isn’t room for both he and fellow Minnesotan Bachmann, who has a lot more charisma and a lot higher name ID, at the top of Iowa power rankings,” noted one participant.

In general, several of our panelists noted that Pawlenty comes across as “too slick and polished” to earn widespread support in the Iowa caucus. But, each is also quick to point out that it is still early and that Pawlenty has attracted key and influential Iowans to his team. In short, we suspect that Pawlenty will remain a mainstay in the Power Rankings.

3.Newt Gingrich — At least one of our participants believes that if the caucuses were held tonight that the former U.S. Speaker of the House would come out on top.

“Even though he has some hefty negatives, it’s early enough that his name and ‘former U.S. Speaker of the House’ title would push him to a strong finish.”

Other participants, however, aren’t ready to say that Gingrich’s failed marriages wouldn’t play negatively, especially among voters that have historically held close to social conservative principles. Even while acknowledging that Gingrich’s recent admission of helping to locate seed money for the push to oust Iowa Supreme Court justices that overturned the state’s ban on same-sex marriage, our panelists aren’t willing to give a free ride on name recognition alone.

“Newt has not caught fire and he’s been prominent in pachyderm leadership for almost two decades. Familiarity has not bred contempt, but it also has not bred affection. You rarely hear much emotional commitment to Newt, even among his supporters. It took World War II for the British to overcome their distaste for Winston Churchill, who was always known to be the smartest politician of the generation. We are close to that crises now so maybe this is Newt’s time.”

4.Mitt Romney — The former Massachusetts governor arguably has name recognition at least equal to that of Huckabee. Romney is also known, at least locally, as being one of best one-on-one and small group campaigners in the field. What’s holding Romney back in these rankings, and presumably in Iowa as a whole, is his own lack of initiative.

“You know those movies with the ‘sleeper agents’ who are activated by a secret password?” asked one of our participants. “All the Romney supporters are still in place and haven’t gone away — they are just quiet right now. When Romney ‘gives the password,’ (i.e. begins handing out checks), they will be activated again.”

Several of our participants also noted Romney is at least considering skipping the caucuses and focusing more on other early states. If that type of talk continues, or if Romney continues to skip Iowa events, his fortune will almost certainly continue to decline.

“Iowa caucus attendees can overlook flaws for a candidate that comes into the state and attempts to reach out to voters. They will not, however, support a candidate that doesn’t support the Iowa system — and only providing money to local candidates isn’t enough.”

5.Michele Bachmann — Proximity, name recognition and the support of a certain Iowa congressman were the three determining factors that narrowly placed Minnesota’s Congresswoman Bachmann into our first top five.

“Bachmann is an Iowa native [and] congresswoman from neighboring Minnesota who is a major ally of U.S. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa). His endorsement alone is worth its weight in bronze.”

Bachmann, who is expected to garner a large share of support from tea party activists and social conservatives, has a fate that is inextricably hitched to that of Huckabee. If he officially plunges into the 2012 race, her stock sinks. If he openly announces that he will not seek the party’s nomination, Bachmann is poised to build a coalition from her two key demographics that is likely unattainable for other candidates leading our first rankings. (...)