Primaria de Florida: gana Romney

A las 7 pm cierran la mayoría de colegios electorales. En el Panhandle cierran a las 8 pm porque tienen otro huso horario.

Recordad todo lo que hay que saber de la primaria de Florida.

Escrutinio: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

TV: CNN / CNN Live / C-SPAN.

Como siempre, iré colocando breves actualizaciones, empezando en esta misma entrada.
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Actualización 9:45 PM -

Con el 95% escrutado: Romney 47%, Gingrich 32%, Santorum 13%, Paul 7%.

Romney se lleva los 50 delegados de la Florida.

Actualización 9:35 PM -

Ron Paul reacciona a los resultados desde Nevada. Dice que ha felicitado a Romney pero que le espera en los caucuses.

Ha encadenado dos cuartos puestos consecutivos (en SC y FL) pero destaca que está tercero en número de delegados.

Repite sus líneas habituales: libertad personal, Constitución, menos gobierno, menos policía del mundo, y END THE FED!

Actualización 9:25 PM -

Newt Gingrich no se rinde. Promete competir en todos los estados hasta la convención y dice que será el nominado. Recuerda que faltan 46 estados que no han votado. Ninguna referencia al resultado de esta noche.

Cita a Abraham Lincoln para construir un argumento populista sobre el "poder del pueblo" (él mismo) frente al "poder del dinero" (Romney).

Y dedica la segunda parte del discurso a decir lo que hará como Presidente. Promete entregar su vida, su suerte y su honor.

Actualización 9:10 PM -

Habla Rick Santorum desde Nevada. Dice que los republicanos pueden hacerlo mejor, refiriéndose a la campaña negativa que han protagonizado Romney y Gingrich en Florida. Pide que se hable de los asuntos y se dejen los ataques personales a un lado.

Tiene toda la intención de continuar en la carrera y su estrategia será la de presentarse como la alternativa positiva a una campaña negativa, y convencer a los conservadores de que Gingrich ha perdido su oportunidad. En una entrevista anterior con la CNN, Santorum ha dicho: "Gingrich ha tenido su oportunidad... y no ha podido mantenerla, no ha podido ganar en Florida."

Actualización 8:52 PM -



Mitt Romney ha aparcado la retórica anti-Gingrich y ha dicho que "una primaria competitiva no nos divide; nos prepara, y ganaremos." Ha utilizado las mejores frases de su discurso de hace semanas en New Hampshire. Ha criticado a Obama por su política presupuestaria, la reforma sanitaria, y la falta de liderazgo. Y ha prometido defender la libertad religiosa y anular las regulaciones que pisotean libertades.

Actualización 8:32 PM -

Ann Romney ha precedido a su marido en el escenario. Esta mujer vale mucho como mujer de candidato.

A Callista todavía no la hemos oido dar ningún speech.

Romney ha ganado el voto femenino por 22 puntos (51%-29%).

Actualización 8:20 PM -

Con el 66% escrutado: Romney 47%, Gingrich 31%, Santorum 13%, Paul 7%.

La mayoría del voto que queda por escrutar es de los dos extremos del estado: Miami-Dade en el Sureste (territorio Romney) y el Panhandle en el Noroeste (que debería ser territorio Gingrich).

En Miami-Dade (cubanos y voto urbano), con el 19% escrutado, Romney le saca casi 40 puntos a Gingrich.

Actualización 8:10 PM -

Algunos condados con el escrutinio muy avanzado en la bahía de Tampa y en el corredor de la Interestatal-4:

Condado de Pinellas (St. Petersburg): Romney gana por 25 puntos; en 2008 perdió por 8 puntos.

Condado de Sarasota: Romney gana por 23 puntos; en 2008 perdió por 6 puntos.

Condado de Manatee: Romney gana por 22 puntos; en 2008 perdió por 2 puntos.

Condado de Orange (Orlando): Romney gana por 15 puntos; en 2008 empató con McCain.

Condado de Sumter (The Villages): Romney gana por 16 puntos; en 2008 ganó por 12.

Condado de Lake: Romney gana por 10 puntos; en 2008 ganó por 1 punto.

Condado de Polk: Romney gana por 9 puntos; en 2008 perdió por 3 puntos.

En el condado de Hillsborough (Tampa), todavía con el 58% escrutado, Romney gana por 20 puntos; en 2008 perdió por 7.

Actualización 8:00 PM -

Romney ha ganado la primaria de Florida, según todas proyecciones.

Actualización 7:52 PM -

Al Sur de Orlando, Gingrich sólo aventaja a Romney en 3 condados. Al Norte de Orlando le va mejor.

Actualización 7:48 PM -

Poco ambiente de momento en el cuartel general de Gingrich. El atril tiene un letrero en el que se lee, "46 STATES TO GO". Hay más ambiente en el cuartel general de Romney. Podéis seguir en vivo los cuarteles generales en CNN Live.

Actualización 7:42 PM -

48% escrutado: Romney 48%, Gingrich 30%, Santorum 13%, Paul 7%. De momento la suma de votos de Gingich y Santorum queda por detrás de Romney.

En el condado de Lee (Fort Myers), con el 95% escrutado, Romney le saca 16 puntos a Gingrich. En 2008 Romney ya ganó este condado conservador por 7 puntos. Entonces era la alternativa conservadora al front-runner McCain. Este año parece que una mayoría de conservadores de Fort Myers no creen que Gingrich sea la alternativa conservadora al front-runner Romney.

Actualización 7:33 PM -

De los alrededor de 100,000 votos contados hasta el momento en el área metropolitana de Tampa, que suele ser el termómetro de Florida, Romney se lleva el 52%, superando en más de 20 puntos a Gingrich. Puede que todavía sea sólo el voto por adelantado, pero la cosa pinta muy bien para Romney, que en 2008 perdió Tampa y sus alrededores por 7 puntos.

Actualización 7:20 PM -

Con el 27% del voto escrutado: Romney 51%, Gingrich 28%, Santorum 12%, Paul 7%.

La victoria de Romney parece evidente. Sin embargo, las televisiones no lo quieren proclamar ganador hasta las 8 pm para no influir en la intención de voto de los habitantes de los condados del Noroeste. Es el trauma del 2000.

Actualización 7:10 PM -

Aproximadamente el 98% de los colegios electorales ya han cerrado.

Con unos 13,000 votos contados en el condado de Pasco, Romney 47%, Gingrich 29%. En 2008, Romney perdió el condado de Pasco por 6 puntos (36%-30%) frente a McCain.

Actualización 6:58 PM -

Según fuentes de Drudge Report, los sondeos a pie de urna a las 6 pm tenían a Romney rozando el 50%: 49% ROMNEY 33% GINGRICH 11% SANTORUM 6% PAUL...

Las televisiones proclamarán a Romney ganador en cuanto cierren todas las urnas a las 8 pm.

Actualización 6:52 PM -

Los sondeos a pie de urna indican que el electorado de este año es más conservador que el de hace cuatro años. Hay más votantes que se identifican como "muy conservadores".

Los cubano-americanos hacen el 10% del electorado.



Actualización 6:29 PM -

Mike Allen (POLITICO) nos enseña el escenario en el que Romney espera celebrar la victoria esta noche.



Actualización 6:22 PM -

Más de sondeos a pie de urna: Romney gana el voto hispano por 27 votos; Gingrich sólo supera a Romney (por 4 puntos) entre los evangélicos renacidos.

Actualización 6:15 PM -

Primeros datos de sondeos a pie de urna: 1 de cada 7 votantes son hispanos; dos tercios de los votantes apoyan al Tea Party (un número similar al de Iowa y SC); 6 de cada 10 votantes consideran la economía el tema más importante; y el 50% cita las ejecuciones hipotecarias como un tema importante.

Actualización 5:00 PM -

Según datos de Kantar Media CMAG, hasta un 68% de los anuncios de televisión emitidos en Florida han sido ataques contra Gingrich; un 23% han sido ataques contra Romney. Así que 9 de cada 10 spots han sido negativos. Del 10% restante, de publicidad positiva, un 9% han sido pro-Gingrich y sólo un 0.1% pro-Romney. La publicidad negativa es lo que funciona.

Actualización 3:33 PM -

Me voy a ver el partido del Athletic. Luego vuelvo.

Os dejo las predicciones del equipo de ABC News que está siguiendo la campaña:

AMY WALTER – ABC News Political Director
Romney- 45%
Newt- 29%
Santorum- 14%
Paul- 12%

JONATHAN KARL – ABC News Senior Political Correspondent
Romney – 40%
Gingrich – 29%
Santorum – 15%
Paul – 10%

RICK KLEIN – Senior Washington Editor for World News with Diane Sawyer
Romney – 45%
Gingrich – 27%
Paul – 15%
Santorum – 11%

Z. BYRON WOLF – Politics Editor for ABC News.com
Romney – 37%
Gingrich – 27%
Santorum – 12 %
Paul – 12 %

SHUSHANNAH WALSHE – ABC News Digital Reporter
Mitt Romney – 36 %
Newt Gingrich – 29 %
Rick Santorum – 15%
Ron Paul – 13%

GEORGE SANCHEZ – ABC News Washington, DC Assignment Editor
Romney – 49%
Gingrich – 21%
Santorum – 16%
Paul – 12%

ELIZABETH HARTFIELD - ABC News Political Unit
Romney- 41%
Gingrich- 28%
Santorum- 14%
Paul- 11%

CHRIS GOOD – ABC News Political Unit
Romney – 38%
Gingrich – 30%
Santorum – 12%
Paul – 11%

MATT NEGRIN - ABC News Political Reporter
Romney – 36%
Gingrich – 29%
Paul – 17%
Santorum – 15%

AMY BINGHAM – ABC News.com Reporter
Romney- 43%
Gingrich- 28%
Santorum- 12%
Paul- 9%

SARAH PARNASS – ABC News Intern
Romney -46%
Gingrich -27%
Santorum – 16%
Paul – 11%

Actualización 3:05 PM -



Actualización 3:00 PM -

Romney celebrará la noche electoral en un recinto del downtown de Tampa. Gingrich lo hará en el Hotel Rosen Center de Orlando. Rick Santorum hablará a sus seguidores en Las Vegas, Nevada, donde se encuentra haciendo campaña para el Caucus del sábado. Ron Paul también esperará resultados en Nevada, concretamente en Henderson.

Últimas llamadas

Mitt Romney se ha unido a los voluntarios de su cuartel general de Tampa para hacer llamadas de última hora a los votantes. Le han obsequiado con un edredón firmado por todo el personal que ha participado en la campaña. Y ha firmado autógrafos en fotos, camisetas, bolsos, y billetes de dólar.

Intensa jornada electoral de Gingrich

El Speaker Gingrich ha empezado el día visitando un colegio electoral de Orlando para convencer a pie de urna a los últimos indecisos. Más tarde ha visitado sus oficinas en Lakeland, donde un grupo de voluntarios están haciendo llamadas a su favor a los republicanos del corredor Tampa-Orlando en la Interestatal-4. Y luego ha comido comida típica sureña en un restaurante de Plant City, a las afueras de Tampa, en el condado de Hillsborough.

Romney le pide a Gingrich que no lloriquee

El Gobernador Romney ha hecho una visita a los voluntarios de su cuartel general de Tampa y ha atendido a la prensa para defenderse de los que le acusan de haber hecho una campaña demasiado negativa, señalando una reciente encuesta de Suffolk, según la cual, los votantes de Florida consideran la campaña de Gingrich más negativa que la suya.

"Vinimos a Florida y el Speaker Gingrich no tuvo dos buenos debates. Yo los tuve. Respondimos a los ataques que recibimos. Os diré que, si eres atacado, yo no voy a cruzarme de brazos, voy a defenderme, y defenderme con fuerza... No puede lloriquear sobre la campaña negativa cuando él lanzó una campaña muy negativa en Carolina del Sur, y cuando la gente en Florida miró a las dos campañas y decidió que la suya fue la más negativa."

¿Qué habrá sido de Sonny Crockett y Ricardo Tubbs?

Gingrich recauda 5 millones en enero

R.C. Hammond, portavoz de Gingrich, anunciaba esta mañana en twitter:

...just crossed $5 million raised for January '12. FEC report will show about $10 million raised in the last quarter of '11.

No está nada mal. En sólo un mes ha recaudado la mitad de lo que recaudó en los tres meses anteriores. Es un buen argumento para seguir adelante pase lo que pase hoy en Florida. El problema está en que este boom recaudatorio seguramente esté relacionado con su victoria en Carolina del Sur hace diez días. Y siguiendo esa misma lógica, un mal resultado en Florida puede parar la entrada de dinero en febrero.

Gingrich: soy el front-runner de los conservadores

Esta mañana en Fox & Friends, el Speaker Gingrich ha vuelto a sugerir que Rick Santorum debería mirar las encuestas y retirarse.

"Mi predicción es que (en Florida) el voto conservador será dramáticamente superior que el del Gobernador Romney, pero estará dividido. Así que tenemos que encontrar una manera de consolidar a los conservadores, y yo soy claramente el front-runner entre los conservadores y, con un poco de suerte, en las próximas semanas seremos capaces de consolidar el voto conservador, en cuyo caso el Gobernador Romney empezará a perder estrepitosamente... Cuanto más tiempo permanezcamos divididos los conservadores, más difícil va a ser para nosotros derrotar a Romney. Y creo que nos arriesgamos a no ser capaces de derrotar a Obama a menos que nominemos a un conservador. Tengo que ganar yo la nominación."

Newt: las primarias durarán 6 u 8 meses, a menos que Mitt se retire antes

Jonathan Karl, de ABC News, ha hablado con el Speaker:

Don’t expect Gingrich to go away any time soon. Whatever happens in Florida, he’s digging in for the long, long haul.

At a visit to a polling station in Orlando, I asked Newt Gingrich how much longer the battle for the Republican nomination will go on. He told me “six or eight months” and then added: “unless Romney drops out earlier.”

When I asked what he says to those who say the race will effectively be over if he loses big in Florida, Gingrich said, “You mean those who said I was dead in June? Those who said I was dead in December? They are about as accurate as they were the last two times they were wrong.”

Gingrich added, “I’m not going to lose big in Florida.”

¿El principio del final o sólo el final del principio?

First Read:

*** The beginning of the end? With Mitt Romney’s expected victory at tonight’s Florida primary, The New York Times asks a very good question: Will it mark the beginning of the end of the GOP nominating season, or will it merely signal the end of the beginning? On the one hand, Romney winning Florida would give him a victory in the largest, most diverse, and electorally important state so far. It would demonstrate his ability to bounce back from a major setback (the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary), as well as his organizational and financial strength. And, as our recent NBC/Marist poll suggests, a Romney win in Florida would represent his most impressive showing with conservative GOP voters outside of New England. As we’ve written before, Romney wouldn’t ever be a shoo-in for the Republican nomination until he won a GOP contest with support from the conservative/Tea Party base of the party. Florida might give him that kind of victory tonight.

*** Or is it just the end of the beginning? On the other hand, you could argue that the Republican nominating contest is far from being over. For starters, Newt Gingrich has vowed to “go all the way to the convention.” After all, hell hath no fury like a presidential candidate who believes he’s been scorned. Ron Paul’s campaign will continue, too. Remember, even after John Kerry won all the early contests in ’04, Howard Dean didn’t end his campaign until after Super Tuesday and after Wisconsin. What’s more, there’s a LONG way to go mathematically. After tonight’s contest, just 115 delegates (or projected delegates) will have been awarded, but it officially will take 1,144 delegates out of a total of 2,286 to clinch the nomination. So we’re just 5% of the way through, and don’t be surprised if you hear that stat from Gingrich today. Finally, every time we think this race (or Newt Gingrich, for that matter) is over, we find out we’re wrong. And why are we wrong? Because it's clear the activist conservative base (read: tea party) just isn't satisified with Romney and they aren't going to roll over this fast.

9 condados clave en Florida

POLITICO.com:

Miami-Dade County

Mitt Romney lost badly here in the state’s most populous county in 2008, by a more than a 3-to-1 margin to John McCain. This time around, polls show he is running better with Hispanic voters — which matters in heavily Cuban-American Miami-Dade, where there are more Hispanic Republicans (265,000) than there are Republicans in all of New Hampshire (232,000).

Palm Beach County

This is Democratic territory, but Palm Beach County is home to the third-highest concentration of Republicans in the state. McCain won comfortably here over Romney in 2008, but with a solid managerial class, — and more households with 65 and older residents and with household income over $100,000 than anywhere else in the state — this county is in Romney’s sweet spot. If he’s not winning here, it’s going to be a rough night for him.

Hillsborough County

Located at one end of the Interstate 4 corridor, Tampa’s Hillsborough County is one of the nation’s great presidential bellwethers: Since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without carrying Hillsborough in the general election. Together, it and neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg)have nearly a half-million GOP voters.

Brevard County

On Florida’s Space Coast, Newt Gingrich’s talk about lunar colonies and space exploration is no joke. It could give him an edge in a populous Republican county that rejected Romney in favor of John McCain in 2008. Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Romney — all of whom knocked down Gingrich’s ambitious NASA agenda — may live to regret it in a county where 2008 turnout was 54 percent, the third-highest percentage in the state.

Orange County

Romney essentially ran even with McCain in Orange County, Home to Orlando, in 2008. It should be friendly territory in 2012, but Mike Huckabee won more voters here than in any other county in 2008, which suggests there is a vein of evangelical voters and social conservatives for Newt Gingrich to mine.

Duval County

Jacksonville’s Duval County, and its surrounding counties, served as a Romney stronghold last time around. With strong local GOP establishment support — including fundraising — Romney should run up the score again here. There’s a reason the CNN debate audience in Jacksonville seemed so stacked in Romney’s favor.

Lee County

Lee County was a top performer for Romney in 2008. By virtually any measure — turnout, number of Romney votes cast, vote share won by Romney — the county, home to Cape Coral and Fort Myers, overperformed for the former Massachusetts governor.

For Romney, the news out of Lee County just gets better: in the past three years, it has added some 27,000 Republicans, far more than any other county in the state.

Sumter County

In terms of population, Sumter County is a pipsqueak in Florida, but it includes most of the planned retirement community known as The Villages a must-stop on the GOP campaign circuit. Romney has visited six times over the course of his two presidential bids; his latest came Monday even when he held an election eve rally.

Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin and John McCain are among the other leading GOP lights who have made appearances here at one time or another. In the past week alone, Romney, Gingrich, Rick Santorum have all stopped by.

Why? An extremely engaged electorate of senior citizens, many of them conservatives. Turnout in the 2008 presidential primary was 57 percent, well above the statewide average and second only to Lee County among Florida’s 67 counties.

Escambia County

Closer to Dallas than to Miami, Pensacola’s Escambia County is the westernmost in the state. Like much of the Panhandle, its politics are more Deep South than South Florida, and it’s the kind of place Newt Gingrich has to win if he has any chance of pulling of an upset. With its military bent and social conservatism, it resembles the one place where Gingrich thrived — South Carolina.

La influencia del Tea Party en la primaria de Florida

Chip Reid (CBS) pulsa la opinión de algunos tea partiers de Florida ante la primaria de hoy. En Florida el movimiento se mantiene como una poderosa fuerza, pero sienten que se han quedado sin candidatos con la retirada de Michele Bachmann y Herman Cain.

Agasajando a la prensa

Mitt Romney sorprendió ayer con una tarta de cumpleaños a Maeve Reston, reportera de Los Angeles Times, y repartió patatas fritas entre los miembros de la prensa que está siguiendo su campaña.

Más publicidad negativa que nunca

The Daily Beast:

No, it’s not your imagination. Things are uglier than ever in the Sunshine State.

A staggering 92 percent of the political ads run in Florida over the last week of the campaign have been negative.

“For as long as I’ve been in politics, 14 years, journalists call me and ask if this is the most negative election ad atmosphere I've ever seen,” says Kenneth Goldstein, president of Kantar Media CMAG, which tracks content and targeting of political advertising. “And every year I say, Don’t be ridiculous."

“But this year it's true. This primary season is the most negative it's ever been,” asserts Goldstein. “I have absolutely never seen television advertising so negative in a Republican presidential primary.”

This tsunami of sleaze is being propelled by unprecedented advertising buys. The Romney campaign and its associated super PAC, Restore Our Future, have spent $15.3 million in Florida over the past month alone, according to Maggie Haberman of Politico. To put this in perspective, John McCain spent $11 million on ads during his entire 2008 primary campaign. Back on this side of Citizens United, Newt Gingrich and his billionaire-backed super PAC have “only” spent an estimated $3 million—giving Romney a 5-to-1 spending advantage in the Sunshine State.

(...) “The Romney camp made a very clear decision that this was going to be somebody's Waterloo,” says Rick Wilson, a legendary Republican operative and CEO of Florida-based Intrepid Media. “In the past, a 60-40 positive to negative ratio in ads used to be considered a heavy load. But that world is just gone.”

“The scope and effectiveness of their negative campaigning have been breathtaking—and it’s all paid off,” says Wilson. “They figured out on the fly that Romney showing fight and backbone—not being a squishy-soft, mealy-mouthed, half-assed campaigner—could bear dividends with conservatives. Because everything comes down to 'will we have a candidate who takes it hard to Obama?'…And he's narrowed the gap. Tea Party conservatives are split between Romney and Gingrich—which would have been unimaginable in South Carolina.”

“This is all because they shaped the battlefield a month in advance, starting by going off on Gingrich's baggage—Freddie and Fannie, his electability, sitting on the couch with Nancy Pelosi—and they never backed off, which is a common mistake,” concludes Wilson. “They realized that Gingrich is like a zombie—if you don't shoot him in the head he'll just go and go and go.”

(...) The barrage of negative ads has been effective—Newt’s momentum coming off a South Carolina win seems to have been stopped by Romney’s money. It’s a play we saw in Iowa, where CMAG concluded that 45 percent of the total ads aired were anti-Newt, pushing Gingrich from first to fourth in a matter of weeks. Gingrich’s brief attempt to honor Reagan’s 11th commandment was not rewarded with popular support. In Florida, a must-win state for Romney, the decision was made to go all in: “In the last two weeks, they decided that the campaign would have the same level of negative as the super PAC,” asserts Wilson. “They realize that the fig leaf is off—and they're using the same kind of messages, just as hard and vigorous.”

Traditionally, there have been risks associated with going negative. “One of the reasons you don’t generally see a lot of negative ads in primaries is that it can be a murder-suicide,” says Kenneth Goldstein. “Think of Gephardt versus Dean in the ‘04 Iowa caucus. You might end up helping a third candidate, like Kerry and Edwards, in that case. But this is now seen as a two-person race—Romney versus Gingrich—and so there seems to be less to lose.”

Última encuesta de PPP en FL: Romney 39%, Gingrich 31%

Public Policy Polling:

PPP's tracking of the Florida Republican primary wraps up with Mitt Romney at 39%, Newt Gingrich at 31%, Rick Santorum at 15%, and Ron Paul at 11%. Our three days of tracking found very little movement in the race: Romney was at 39-40% every day, Gingrich was at 31-32% every day, Santorum was at 14-15% every day, and Paul was at 9-11% every day.

The lack of movement in the final 72 hours of the campaign is a far cry from the dramatic shifts Florida Republicans made in their preferences over the last four months. In late September we found Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich by 20 points in the state. By late November, as he surged nationally, Gingrich had taken a 30 point led over Romney. But then our first poll in early January, after poor performances by Gingrich in Iowa and New Hampshire, found Romney back on top by 15 points. Riding a (short lived) wave of momentum off his South Carolina victory, Gingrich led our Florida poll last week by 5 points. By the end of the week the race had swung back to Romney and over the last three days his lead has been steady in the 7-8 point range.

One thing Romney did a great job of was getting his voters out early. With the third of the electorate who have already cast their ballots he leads 45-32. That means Gingrich would have to win election day voters by somewhere in the 6-8 point range to pull off the Florida upset, but we find that Romney still has a 36-30 advantage with those are waiting to vote tomorrow.

Romney will win in Florida tomorrow because he's winning his core groups of support by wide margins, while holding Gingrich to single digit advantages with his key constituencies. Romney is winning moderates by 39 (53-14), seniors by 12 (46-32), and women by 12 (42-30). Meanwhile Gingrich is only up 8 with Tea Partiers (39-31) and 6 with Evangelicals (38-32), groups he won by huge margins in South Carolina.

Lo que hay que saber de la primaria de Florida

Es día de primarias en Florida. Las urnas abrirán a las 7 de la mañana y la mayoría cerrarán a las 7 de la noche (en el Panhandle a las 8).

Como es una "primaria cerrada", sólo pueden votar aquellos que estuvieran ya registrados como republicanos cuando se entró en el año nuevo. No son pocos. Constituyen un electorado más largo que lo que hemos visto en Iowa, NH y Carolina del Sur. Más largo incluso que la suma de todos los votos emitidos en esos tres estados. Y también más diverso.

Casi 4.1 millones de republicanos están llamados a las urnas hoy en Florida, y 630,000 ya han votado por adelantado. En 2008 participó el 51% de los republicanos registrados, 1.9 millones. Este año hay unos 300,000 republicanos registrados más que entonces, así que una participación similar, del 51%, serían algo más de 2 millones de votos. Aunque el resultado parece menos incierto que entonces, así que los expertos pronostican que votarán entre 1.5 y 2 millones.

Los condados que hay que seguir con mayor atención por el número de votos que aportan son: Miami-Dade (Miami), Palm Beach (West Palm Beach) y Broward (Fort Lauderdale) en el sureste; Pinellas y Hillsborough en la bahía de Tampa; Orange (Orlando) en la Florida central; Brevard en la costa espacial; y Duval (Jacksonville) en el extremo noreste.

A Florida le correspondían 99 delegados en la Convención Nacional Republicana, pero el partido la castigó por adelantar su primaria, y se ha quedado en 50 delegados. El ganador de la primaria se llevará los 50. Pero la cosa no es tan sencilla. Estamos en Florida y ya conocéis la afición de este estado a meterse en líos electorales. Según las normas, basta que un republicano registrado presente una protesta formal al comité nacional del partido, para que este se vea obligado a reconsiderar el sistema de adjudicación de delegados antes de la convención. Así que si la nominación está igualada, podría haber más adelante una disputa por los delegados de Florida.

Romney canta "America the Beautiful"

Romney en The Villages, Florida

Mitt Romney cerró ayer su campaña en Florida con un rally nocturno al aire libre, cantando 'America the Beautiful' con los jubilados de The Villages. No hizo mención a Gingrich y se concentró en Obama. Prometió revocar el ObamaCare y aseguró a los jubilados que no les va a quitar el Medicare y la Seguridad Social.

Romney tenía programados eventos para esta mañana pero los ha cancelado y ha optado por descansar y esperar resultados en un hotel de Tampa. Es la señal más evidente de que su equipo da por hecho que lo tiene ganado; por el contrario, Gingrich va a estar visitando recintos electorales.

(click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

Gingrich en Orlando, Florida

En su último acto de ayer, un desafiante Newt Gingrich predijo una victoria decisiva para hoy y atacó a Romney, a Obama, a los medios, y a Goldman Sachs. "Estoy en esta carrera donde Ronald Reagan estaba en 1976... Vamos a decir la verdad, vamos a derrotar una campaña de grandes mentiras con una campaña de grandes verdades, vamos a derrotar al poder del dinero con el poder de la gente, vamos a ir hasta el final, hasta la convención, y vamos a ganar en Tampa, y voy a ser el nominado con vuestra ayuda."

Romney en Hannity (Fox News)

Gingrich en Hannity (Fox News)

Continúa: Parte 2

Ron Paul en The Kudlow Report (CNBC)

Santorum en John King USA (CNN)

Brett O’Donnell, el "game-changer" de la primaria de Florida

The Washington Post:

The call went out the night Mitt Romney lost the South Carolina primary.

Brett O’Donnell, award winning debate-coach to college students and presidential candidates alike, was needed in Florida, where Romney would be preparing for two televised debates over the next five days that could be pivotal to his chances of winning the state’s Jan. 31 primary.

O’Donnell was in Tampa the next day, and less than 48 hours later, a pithier and more combative Romney showed up Jan. 23 to debate Newt Gingrich, who had dominated two such televised gatherings in South Carolina in performances strategists credited with propelling him to victory there Jan. 21.

Romney’s feistier delivery and more aggressive style that night -- reprised Jan. 26 in Jacksonville -- may have helped turn the tide for him in Florida, where polls show him surging.

(...) It came as no surprise to campaign operatives and debate specialists who have worked with O’Donnell and call him a master coach, as adept at preparing candidates to make their points succinctly as he is at pumping them up before they take the stage.

“Brett actually studied and taught debate at the highest levels before bringing his considerable chops to politics,” said Mark McKinnon, a Republican strategist who worked with O’Donnell on former President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign.

Romney, 64, deserves most of the credit for his improved debate performances last week, McKinnon said, adding: “But having Brett O’Donnell aboard for debate prep is going to raise the level of anyone’s game, because Brett is simply the best in the business.”

Romney: es triste ver a Gingrich

Visiblemente contento y en mangas de camisa en un rally al sol en Dunedin, en la zona de la bahía de Tampa, el Gobernador Romney se ha referido a la exasperación de Gingrich:

"¡Dios mío! Sé que el Speaker no está contento. El Speaker Gingrich no está muy entusiasmado estos días... Lo sé, es triste. Ha estado haciendo aspavientos para perseguirme por una cosa o por otra, ya lo habéis visto y habéis negado con la cabeza. Ha sido terriblemente revelador el verlo. Creo que la razón por la que no le va bien es por esos dos últimos debates, ¿no creéis?"

Gingrich firma un poster que compara a Romney con Obama

Durante el rally de Tampa, Gingrich ha firmado y ha mostrado al público el poster de un seguidor en el que se podía leer, "no te engañes, ObamaCare es RomneyCare."

Gingrich en Tampa, Florida

Michael Reagan, hijo mayor del Presidente Reagan, y Herman Cain, han presentado a Newt Gingrich en un rally celebrado en un hangar de un aeropuerto de Tampa. Los mítines en los hangares son frecuentes en las últimas horas de una campaña para volver rápidamente al avión y salir pitando hacia otra ciudad.

El candidato ha recordado a sus seguidores que mañana es un día grande de verdad. Les ha dicho que sigue peleando a pesar de que Romney ha gastado "17.5 millones de dólares en falsedades", y ha mencionado una encuesta de Dixie Strategies con una muestra de unos 2,500 votantes probables, que hablaba de empate técnico hace dos días.

Ha cerrado su intervención pidiendo ayuda a los votantes para enviar mañana un mensaje en forma de victoria a George Soros, Goldman Sachs, y compañía. "Necesitamos vuestra ayuda: os necesitamos en Facebook, os necesitamos twiteando, os necesitamos en el correo electrónico. Necesitamos que llaméis a la gente, y, soy un anticuado, os necesitamos hablando cara a cara con la gente."

Romney resta importancia a Gingrich

Los periodistas le preguntan en el avión qué opina sobre la promesa de Gingrich de seguir hasta la convención pase lo que pase mañana, y el Gobernador Romney responde:

"Ese es habitualmente un indicio de que crees que vas a perder. Cuando dices, 'voy a seguir sin importar lo que ocurra', eso normalmente no es una buena señal. Yo estoy esperanzado en conseguir los delegados que necesito y estar en la convención con el número que se necesita para ser el nominado. Pero todo el mundo tiene derecho a permanecer (en la carrera) mientras quiera."

Jai Alai

En esta semana dedicada al gran estado de la Florida no podía dejar de dedicar una breve entrada a la cesta punta, el deporte más rápido del mundo, o "Jai Alai" ("fiesta alegre" en euskera) como lo llaman los miamenses.

Es hoy un negocio en crisis por la irrupción de la lotería estatal y otros sistemas de apuestas más cómodos, pero hace tres décadas era el entretenimiento estrella de Florida, deporte rey del capitalismo desenfrenado, junto con las carreras de caballos y de galgos. Allí solían ir los pelotaris vascos a hacer el dinero que en Euzkadi era inimaginable hacer, a enfrentarse a las estrellas locales, como el legendario Joey Cornblit.

Había frontones en Miami, Tampa, West Palm Beach, Orlando, Daytona Beach, que más que recintos deportivos eran templos del juego, con decenas de ventanillas para apostar, con sus salones para jugar al póker, tragaperras, canódromos. Todavía quedan algunos. Otros están fuera de servicio o se han readaptado a la nueva realidad.

El Jai Alai de Miami fue a mediados de los 80 escenario de un capítulo de la mítica serie 'Miami Vice', que mostraba lo más chic de la Miami de aquella época.

Gingrich acusa a Romney de hacer una "campaña de mentiras"

Esta mañana en Pensacola, el Speaker ha dicho refiriéndose a Romney, "No puedes llegar a ser Presidente si no tienes el coraje de decirle la verdad al pueblo americano."

Suffolk: Romney 47%, Gingrich 27% en Florida

Suffolk University:

Mitt Romney – 47%
Newt Gingrich – 27%
Rick Santourm – 12%
Ron Paul – 9%
Indecisos – 5%

¿Newt '12 = Reagan '76?

Walter Shapiro, desde la experiencia de quien ha cubierto como periodista nueve campañas presidenciales, ve paralelismos entre la campaña de Gingrich y la de Reagan, pero no la del 80, sino la del 76:

Obviously, Gingrich is no Reagan even if Callista is channeling her Inner Nancy. But there are surprising affinities between Newt’s political situation today and the 65-year-old Reagan’s outsider status during his 1976 challenge to Jerry Ford. Declaring his candidacy in November 1975 at the National Press Club in Washington, the former two-term California governor declared in words that have a contemporary ring, “Our nation’s capital has become the seat of a buddy system that functions for its own benefit—increasingly insensitive to the needs of the American worker who supports it in taxes.”

But after losing the New Hampshire primary to Ford by 1,317 votes (in an echo of this year’s Iowa caucuses, the tally was later disputed), Reagan was on the ropes as he (another echo) trailed in the polls leading up to the Florida primary. As Jules Witcover recounts in Marathon, his chronicle of the 1976 campaign, Ford told reporters aboard Air Force One, “Florida is really the key. If we win and win very well in Florida, they ought to know that they can’t win.” Not only did Reagan lose Florida, but he also was walloped by 19 percentage points in Illinois, the state of his birth. After Illinois, according to Witcover, Reagan aides discussed among themselves (without consulting the candidate) whether “to make contact with the Ford people and let them know that Reagan was ready to withdraw gracefully.”

But Reagan, with his campaign $2-million in debt and his plane about to be grounded because of non-payment of bills, found his issue (the Panama Canal), as he pulled off a stunning upset in the North Carolina primary. That victory and follow-up wins in other southern primaries fueled Reagan as he carried his fight against Ford and the GOP establishment to the floor of the Kansas City convention. Something tells me that Gingrich remembered that Reagan story line as he boldly declared during a Saturday press conference that—regardless of the Florida outcome—“I will go all the way to the convention.”

None of this guarantees that political history will repeat itself as either tragedy or farce. But again and again, the largely youthful campaign press corps has sold Gingrich short. Maybe Florida is indeed the end of the line for Gingrich’s frail hopes to be the GOP nominee. But all it takes for Gingrich to prove that he is not yesterday’s man is a GOP primary electorate that remembers yesterday—and the day before.

"Latinos para Newt"

Spot dirigido a los cubano-americanos.

Gingrich exhibe retórica anti-establishment en This Morning (CBS)

Charlie Rose (CBS), destacado trilateralista y participante habitual en las reuniones del Club Bilderberg, le ha preguntado a Gingrich sobre por qué razón cree que está siendo atacado por los medios conservadores, incluso por personas que trabajaron con él en el Congreso.

"En muchos casos, es porque son parte del establishment," ha respondido Gingrich. "Mira sus vínculos, mira de dónde viene su dinero. Los establishments de Nueva York y Washington juntos quieren a alguien en quien pueden confiar: alguien como, por ejemplo, Romney, que elogió al Secretario del Tesoro Geithner, alguien que se sienta cómodo con su principal donante recibiendo 13, 15 o 20,000 millones de dólares en dinero del contribuyente. Dirán y harán prácticamente cualquier cosa para mantener vivo el sistema, y creo que reconocen que yo soy un genuino outsider. Sé mucho sobre Washington habiendo servido como Speaker. No tengo ningún vínculo con el establishment, y reestructuraré radicalmente el sistema. Ellos no quieren que se cambie. Están muy cómodos presidiendo la decadencia, ya que consiguen seguir jugando a sus juegos."

Romney en Today (NBC)

El candidato ha restado importancia al papel de sus asesores en la recuperación de su candidatura en la última semana, y ha preferido destacar su buena actuación en los debates.

"Ceo que puedes esperar que los asesores piensen que el trabajo de los asesores es muy, muy importante, pero fráncamente, creo que si retrocedes y miras dónde cambió el sentimiento, fue con los debates."

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Febrero representa un problema para Gingrich

First Read:

He has a February problem. For the next three weeks, there are four caucuses and no debates. So where does he make his move? Can he make a stand in Adelson’s Nevada (not likely because the GOP primary was more than a quarter Mormon), Arizona, or Minnesota?

Hillary Clinton ran into this after Super Tuesday when she was essentially tied with Obama on delegates and then he went on to rattle off a series of small-state victories in February. Clinton willed herself to Ohio, but, by then, in hindsight, the delegate match actually pointed to the fact it was closer to being over than maybe we all realized at the time.

Gingrich desperately wants to get to March because there are a slew of Southern primaries that could give him some much-needed victories.. That said, don’t expect the Romney campaign to make the same mistake they made after Iowa. Expect it not to let up on Gingrich this time like they did then

En la carretera

¿Qué hace un candidato en su autobús de campaña entre parada y parada? Ayer un fotógrafo de Associated Press acompañó a Mitt Romney en los 200 kilómetros que separan Naples de Miami, y captó al candidato haciendo un puzzle con su nieto, preparando un sandwich de crema de cacahuete y miel para merendar, utilizando su iPad, y siguiendo atentamente un mitin de Gingrich por televisión.

Memo de Team Gingrich: las primarias sólo están empezando

The Daily Caller:

An internal Gingrich campaign memo obtained by The Daily Caller shows the campaign is planning to continue long after Tuesday’s Florida primary, stating simply: “this race is just getting started.”

The memo, from National Political Director Martin Baker, notes Romney’s lack of conservative grassroots support, and stresses that Romney currently has just 33 of the 1144 needed (Gingrich has 25 of 1144).

“Regardless of who wins on Tuesday,” the memo says, “they will have less than 10% of the delegates they need to claim the nomination….”

(...) More than 20 percent of the available delegates (467) will be awarded on Super Tuesday, and the memo notes that, one of the Super Tuesday states is Georgia, with 76 delegates at stake. To put that in perspective, “even if Romney wins Florida on Tuesday, he will only have 83 total delegates; Newt’s home state could effectively cancel out his entire delegate count to date.”

The memo also describes Tennessee (58) and Oklahoma (43) as “favorable” Super Tuesday states, and notes that just one week after Super Tuesday (March 13), 90 delegates will be in play in Alabama and Mississippi. And if the point that a Florida loss is survivable wasn’t already hammered home, the memo notes, “these 90 [delegates] alone are more than the 83 Romney will have in hand on Wednesday morning if he wins Florida.”

Gingrich piensa a largo plazo

POLITICO.com:

Florida may well be a painful body blow, but Gingrich appears deadly serious about a long, bloody march all the way to Tampa — a scenario that is giving the GOP establishment nightmares.

(...) The new rules in which states will distribute their delegates proportionally instead of by winner-take-all rules means that Gingrich can keep accruing a sizable number of delegates even if Romney is besting him.

(...) Previewing his post-Florida message, Gingrich told reporters outside a megachurch here Sunday that he would seek to carry the Anybody But Mitt banner.

“When you take all the non-Romney votes, it’s very likely that at the convention there will be a non-Romney majority and maybe a very substantial one,” he said. “My job is to convert that into a Gingrich majority.”

Such Tampa talk has key party leaders worried.

Even as they breathe a sigh of relief about Romney’s apparent Florida turnaround, some party establishment types are nonetheless bracing for a protracted and ugly fight between factions that the GOP hasn’t seen for decades.

(...) Gingrich’s campaign is pointing to a group of Southern and Southwestern states with contests in March and April in which it thinks it will take at least a plurality of delegates: Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi and Texas.

The campaign notes that after Florida, just 115 of the 2288 total delegates will have been awarded – just over 5 percent.

“The proportional nature of the upcoming contests essentially guarantees that no candidate will secure the nomination anytime soon, and the map gets better for us as we get deeper into the calendar,” said Gingrich adviser Kellyanne Conway.

Of course, presidential primary campaigns on the verge of losing the next state always like to take the long view. It’s especially crucial for Gingrich’s camp to make the case because Romney appears poised to do well in Nevada, Michigan and Arizona next month.

But Gingrich and his aides take heart in two factors unique to this campaign.

First, the former speaker has already collapsed twice and twice gotten back off the mat. If he can come back from losing his entire senior campaign staff, as he did last summer, and rebound from a shellacking and distant fourth-place finish in Iowa, why can’t he overcome a Florida loss?

Further, this primary has to date proved immune to momentum – each contest has been a discrete affair. Santorum got no bounce in New Hampshire after his virtual tie in Iowa and Romney enjoyed no boost in South Carolina after a convincing victory in New Hampshire. So even if Romney were to win big here Tuesday, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll immediately consolidate the party.

And, in addition to his limited future options, Gingrich’s past also suggests he’s in it for the long haul.

“He lost his first two races before he won in ’78,” noted Jackie Cushman, his daughter. “He just perseveres. I think of him as the Energizer bunny — he just keeps going.”

To keep beating the drum, Gingrich is going to need to step up his fundraising.

In a memo it released to the press Sunday night, the campaign said it is “now in a position where we will be able to respond to Romney’s ads in every state moving forward.”

What may be even more crucial, though, is whether casino magnate Sheldon Adelson keeps pumping money into Gingrich’s super PAC.

While he’s barred from coordinating plans, Gingrich will be in Las Vegas this week ahead of the Nevada caucuses and is likely to sit down with Adelson, according to sources.

Eventos de campaña en directo

Último día de campaña para Romney y Gingrich en Florida.

Santorum retoma la campaña después de la mejoría de su hija, pero no en Florida. Ya empieza a pensar en los estados que votarán en febrero. Estará en Minnesota y Missouri.

Ron Paul hoy descansa. Mañana estará en Colorado.

CNN Live emitirá hoy en vivo, entre otros, los siguientes eventos:

08:10 AM Race to 2012: Romney rallies supporters
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks with supporters in Jacksonville, Florida.

10:00 AM Race to 2012: Gingrich talks to voters
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks with potential primary voters in Pensacola, Florida.

01:00 PM Race to 2012: Gingrich in Tampa
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich addresses potential primary voters in Tampa, Florida.

02:15 PM Race to 2012: Romney meets with supporters
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney talks to supporters at a campaign rally in Dunedin, Florida.

03:00 PM Race to 2012: Gingrich rallies voters
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich addresses a grassroots rally in Fort Myers, Florida.

03:30 PM Race to 2012: Santorum in Missouri
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum discusses the economy, jobs and American competitiveness in Cottleville, Missouri.

06:00 PM Race to 2012: Gingrich goes to Orlando
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks to potential primary voters in Orlando, Florida.

06:10 PM Race to 2012: Romney talks with seniors
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney addresses residents of The Villages senior community in Florida.

Última encuesta de Quinnipiac y penúltima de PPP en Florida

Quinnipiac University:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a 43 - 29 percent lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among Republican likely voters in Florida, the nation's first big-state presidential primary, according to Quinnipiac University poll released today. Only 7 percent are undecided, but 24 percent say they might change their mind by tomorrow's election.

This compares to a 38 - 29 percent Romney lead in a January 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today's survey, self-described conservatives go to Romney 40 - 31 percent. He gets 38 percent of white evangelical Christians to Gingrich's 33 percent and wins 40 percent of Tea Party members to Gingrich's 35 percent.

Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum each have 11 percent of likely primary voters today.

Romney gets a 64 - 25 percent favorability rating from likely primary voters, compared to 61 - 28 percent Friday. Gingrich has 51 - 42 percent favorability, compared to 50 - 28 percent Friday. Santorum is at 58 - 16 percent favorable, with a negative 35 - 45 percent for Paul.

"Gov. Mitt Romney is headed towards a double-digit victory that touches all the GOP bases," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Romney carries every part of the GOP coalition, including the parts central to Gingrich - self- described conservatives, white evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporters. If this margin holds up tomorrow, it's hard to see where Gingrich goes from here."

Public Policy Polling:

PPP's second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday's polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place.

The reason we don't find Gingrich getting blown out by a double digit margin in Florida is that he's winning a lot of the same groups he did in South Carolina. He's up 37-33 with Evangelicals, 40-33 with Tea Partiers, and 36-29 with voters who describe themselves as 'very conservative.' The problem for him is that he's not winning those groups by the same kinds of margins that he did in the Palmetto State.

Romney continues to have a large lead in the bank in Florida. 34% of our respondents said they'd already voted and with those folks he has a 45-33 lead. That puts Gingrich in a position where he'd have to not only win the election day vote, but win it by 6 or 7 points to upset Romney in the state. The kind of reversal necessary to make that happen seems unlikely to occur in the next 48 hours.

Almost Romney's entire lead in Florida is coming from moderate voters. He has a 58-15 lead over Gingrich with them and only a 1 point advantage with the rest of the electorate. Other groups that continue to be a particular source of strength for Romney are seniors (48-32) and women (43-30).

We will have one final night of Florida tracking tomorrow.

El voto femenino, punto flaco de Gingrich en Florida

Romney prueba el lechón a la cubana

Acompañado de líderes del exilio anti-castrista, el Gobernador Romney visitó ayer Casa Marín, un popular restaurante cubano en Hialeah, a las afueras de Miami. Posó junto a un lechón asado, lo troceó, y lo sirvió.

InsiderAdvantage dice que Gingrich está recuperando terreno en FL

Newsmax:

A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sunday night of likely Republican voters in the state of Florida shows a significant surge for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

The poll has former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leading with 36 percent of voters, followed by Gingrich at 31 percent.

The Sunday results of 646 likely GOP voters are as follows:

Romney 36 percent
Gingrich 31 percent
Santorum 12 percent
Paul 12 percent
Other/Undecided 9 percent

"The race will be tighter than expected," Matt Towery, chief pollster of InsiderAdvantage told Newsmax.

Towery noted that his poll showed a surge for Romney on Wednesday, with him leading Gingrich by 8 points. The InsiderAdvantage poll was among the first to show Romney's resurgence after his dismal showing in the S. Carolina primary.

The InsiderAdvantage poll was also the first to show Gingrich's rise in S. Carolina and accurately forecast his win there.

"The trend is favoring Gingrich," Towery said, noting that while Romney's lead was still outside the margin of error of 3.8 percent, "It's not by much."

Towery said Gingrich is doing "substantially better" with men than Romney, 38 to 28, but the former House Speaker still faces a "gender gap," as women are still favoring Romney.

"Men are moving in droves to Gingrich and away from Romney," Towery said.

As for Florida's important Latino vote, InsiderAdvantage has Gingrich beating Romney by a large margin, leading 42 percent to 29 percent.

Michael C. Bender, de Bloomberg, escribía anoche en twitter:

Newt just stopped by press dinner table in Jax to say Insider Advantage poll will show him w/i 5 points. "The momentum is now w/ me."

Rasmussen: Romney amplía su ventaja en FL

Rasmussen:

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has opened a double-digit lead in Florida as the perception grows among Republican primary voters that he is the strongest general election candidate against President Obama. The state's GOP Primary is on Tuesday.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, conducted Saturday, shows Romney up by 16 points with 44% support. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is a distant second at 28%.

These figures reflect a significant turnaround over the past week. Last Sunday, just after his big win in the South Carolina Primary, Gingrich led Romney by nine. By the middle of this past week, Romney was back in control with an eight-point advantage. Despite all the ups and downs, the results today are very similar to polling results found in Florida three weeks ago, coming off Romney’s decisive victory in the New Hampshire Primary.

Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earns 12% support, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 10%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Republican voters are looking first and foremost for a candidate who can beat Obama. Earlier in the week, when Gingrich was leading in Florida, the Sunshine State's primary voters were evenly divided as to whether Romney or Gingrich would be the stronger general election candidate. By mid-week, as Romney regained the lead, he had a 15-point advantage over Gingrich on this question. Today, 53% believe that Romney is the strongest candidate against the president, and only 29% think Gingrich fits that role.

Romney en Pompano Beach, Florida

Pompano Beach forma parte del área metropolitana de Fort Lauderdale, al sureste de Florida.

El rap de Newt Gingrich

Tres jóvenes seguidores de Florida le han hecho un tema de rap que dice, “Yeah hot, hot, hot... hey everybody vote for Newt!”

El Las Vegas Review-Journal apoya a Romney

Es el periódico más vendido en Nevada, que vota el próximo sábado, y es muy conservador; para que os hagáis una idea, en 2010 apoyó a Sharron Angle.

Las Vegas Review-Journal:

This race is between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia.

(...) But Mr. Gingrich's tenure as speaker was brief. He burned bridges and became a divisive figure for much of the electorate. After resigning from office in 1999 under pressure from his party, Mr. Gingrich became a political consultant.

Mr. Romney, on the other hand, has less political experience and a lifetime in the business world. His greatest strength is his command of economic issues and his understanding of what the private sector needs to create jobs. He has criticized the uncertainty President Obama and Congress have created by not passing budgets and refusing to provide businesses and investors with a predictable, permanent tax code. And he understands the economic ruin that lies ahead if Washington can't conquer its spending addiction. "We can't have a government that keeps spending more than it takes in, otherwise enterprise will not invest in America," he said.

Mr. Romney is pro-growth all the way. He wants the country to develop all its energy resources, not punish the oil, coal and gas sectors. He wants states and citizens to have more freedom to innovate. And perhaps most importantly, Mr. Romney is a Washington outsider, not a capital insider.

Nevada Republicans should attend their caucuses with two questions in mind. Who best represents their party? And who has the best chance to defeat President Obama? We believe Mitt Romney is the answer to both of those questions.

Gingrich en The Villages, Florida

The Villages es una exclusiva comunidad de jubilados que se encuentra a medio camino entre Tampa y Orlando. Con una población de cerca de 80,000 habitantes, la mayoría mayores de 55 años, es la ciudad que más rápido ha crecido en todo EEUU en la última década. En el año 2000 tenía sólo 8,000 habitantes, diez veces menos que ahora.

Hay ni más ni menos que 34,239 votantes afiliados al Partido Republicano en The Villages, y son de los que no se pierden una elección, así que se les considera "supervotantes", igual que a los cubanos de Miami. Y como pasa con los cubanos, a los republicanos de The Villages se les considera más afines a Romney: en 2008 McCain ganó la primaria de Florida, pero Romney se llevó el condado de Sumter, donde se encuentra la mayor parte de The Villages, por un cómodo 40%-28%.

El Speaker Gingrich ha llegado esta tarde a la ciudad. Se ha autoproclamado "legítimo heredero del movimiento de Reagan", casi nada, se ha referido a Romney como el "liberal de Massachusetts" (ya no es más el "moderado de Massachusetts"), ha arremetido contra el establishment y Wall Street, y ha hablado de empleo y política exterior.

Mañana llega Romney a la ciudad.

Romney pide a Gingrich que deje las excusas y se mire al espejo

El Gobernador Romney, durante un mitin hoy en Naples, al suroeste de Florida:

"(Gingrich) Está ahora buscando excusas. Ha estado en la tele esta mañana, yendo de una emisora a otra, quejándose sobre lo que piensa que son las razones de sus dificultades aquí en la Florida. Pero sabéis, ya tenemos un Presidente que pone muchas excusas, y las excusas han terminado. Es hora de producir. Creo que cada uno de nosotros, si fallamos en algo, si fallamos en los debates, o si fallamos a la hora de conseguir el apoyo de la gente, es hora de mirarse al espejo. Y en mi opinión, la razón por la que el Speaker Gingrich está encontrando dificultades en Florida es porque la gente de Florida ha visto los debates, han escuchado al Speaker, han escuchado a otros candidatos, y han dicho, '¿sabéis qué? Mitt Romney es el candidato que vamos a apoyar'...

"Señor Speaker, su problema en Florida no es que la audiencia (de los debates) sea demasiado silenciosa o demasiado enérgica. O que tenga oponentes que son duros. Su problema en Florida es que trabajó para Freddie Mac en un momento en que Freddie Mac no estaba haciendo lo correcto para el pueblo americano. Y usted estaba vendiendo su influencia en Washington cuando necesitábamos personas que defendieran la verdad en Washington."

Tiene a Gingrich donde quería.

Gingrich en This Week (ABC)

Ha vuelto el Newt Gingrich quejoso y enojado que tan poco atractivo resultó en la recta final de la campaña en Iowa. Nada que ver con el Gingrich gamberro y risueño que llegó a Florida hace siete días. Y el mérito hay que reconocérselo a Team Romney.

Esta mañana en This Week, hemos visto al ex Speaker a la defensiva.

Ha cuestionado el carácter de Romney, describiéndolo como alguien "fundamentalmente deshonesto."

"Digo que (Romney) no estaría donde está ahora, los debates de esta semana no hubieran sido como fueron, si hubiera dicho la verdad... Y creo que ese es un problema muy serio para alguien."

Ha acusado a Romney de hacer una "campaña de vilipendio" basada en afirmaciones "objetivamente falsas" y en un bombardeo por saturación de anuncios negativos.

Ron Paul en State of the Union (CNN)

El candidato insiste en que su estrategia pasa por ganar momentum en los estados que celebran caucuses. Y confirma su intención de permanecer como candidato hasta la convención. Dice que habrá momentos altos y bajos pero que en los momentos malos serán capaces de volver a levantarse.

La importancia del voto por adelantado

Nate Silver:

About one-third of Floridians have already voted. Since Mr. Gingrich only led Mr. Romney for a few fleeting days in the polls, that means that Mr. Romney should have banked an advantage, and that Mr. Gingrich would need to win by perhaps 5 or 10 points on Election Day to claim the state.

That could also lessen the impact of late-breaking developments in the news cycle — like Mr. Gingrich receiving the endorsement of Herman Cain.

NBC/Marist: Romney le saca 15 puntos a Gingrich en FL

NBC News:

Mitt Romney may be on his way to a decisive victory in the Florida GOP primary Tuesday, according to a new NBC/Marist poll.

Romney leads Newt Gingrich by 15 points, 42 percent to 27 percent in the crucial state. Rick Santorum is third with 16 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 11 percent. Just 4 percent said they were undecided.

"The bottom line in all this is Romney's sitting in the driver's seat going into Tuesday," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College, who conducted the poll.

(...) Romney beats Gingrich and the rest of the field by winning broadly across many subgroups -- those who are not Tea Party supporters (52 percent), those who are liberal or moderate (49 percent), make more than $75,000 a year (49 percent), identify as "conservative" (47 percent), and, in particular with women.

There was a stark gender gap between Romney and Gingrich. Women said they preferred Romney by 47-26 percent over Gingrich. The gap is closer with men, but Romney leads with them as well, 38-29 percent.

"He's winning both," Miringoff said, "but runs up the score among women."

Romney also does well enough with Tea Party supporters, splitting the vote with Gingrich. Gingrich leads among that group, 36 percent to 34 percent, with Santorum taking 22 percent. And, Romney runs even or leads Gingrich in the traditionally more conservative northern part of the state. In addition, more GOP primary voters said Romney represented their views on immigration than any other candidate.

Romney also leads among evangelical Christians, receiving the support of 34 percent, compared to 28 percent for Gingrich. Six-in-10 GOP primary voters said they believed Mormons are Christians. But even among those who say they don't believe so, Romney splits the vote with Gingrich. In 2008, born-again or evangelical voters made up 39 percent of the GOP primary in Florida, lower than the 60 percent who identified as such in Iowa and South Carolina.

Gingrich leads Santorum among "very conservative" voters 36 percent to 29 percent. Romney gets about a quarter of that group -- 24 percent.

But Gingrich would have a hard time arguing that a majority is voting against Romney, and that if Santorum were not in the race, he would win. When Santorum is removed from the equation, his vote splits off evenly between Romney and Gingrich -- and Romney leads Gingrich by an even wider 16-point margin, 49-33 percent.