10 condados clave en Iowa

POLITICO.com:

Black Hawk County

With the University of Northern Iowa and a strong organized labor presence, Black Hawk County is reliably Democratic. But Waterloo is the city where Michele Bachmann was born—and it might also be said to be the place where her campaign went off the rails after Rick Perry outshined her at the county GOP dinner there the day after the Ames Straw Poll. In 2008, it was Mike Huckabee territory, with the Arkansas governor winning 35 percent to Romney’s 27 percent.

Dallas County

A suburb of Des Moines, Dallas County is Iowa’s fastest-growing county. Mitt Romney and Huckabee battled to a near-tie here in 2008—just 4 votes separated the two candidates, with Romney squeaking to victory. That made Dallas County something of an anomaly, since it was the only county in the Des Moines metro area to vote for Romney over Huckabee. Caucus turnout tends to be very high here; in 2008, it posted one of the highest turnout levels in the state at 30 percent.

Dubuque County

This was Romney country in 2008, a place where he ran strong (41 percent) and Huckabee ran poorly (15 percent)—it was the only county in the state where the Arkansas governor failed to finish either first or second. But northeastern Iowa is the most heavily Catholic part of the state and the city of Dubuque is also home to a large concentration of Catholics who might find the candidacies of Rick Santorum and converted Catholic Newt Gingrich appealing. Still, if Romney’s not winning here, he’s probably in trouble.

Johnson County

Even this liberal enclave, home to Iowa City and the University of Iowa, matters to the outcome Tuesday evening: It’s still home to more Republicans that most counties in Iowa. Four years ago, it handed Romney a 360-vote victory and there’s no reason he can’t carry it again. But keep an eye on Ron Paul—his anti-war and anti-establishment views are popular with college students and he ran 5 percentage points higher than his statewide average here in 2008.

Linn County

Home to Cedar Rapids, the second-largest city in Iowa after Des Moines, Linn County counts healthy contingents of both moderates and social conservatives. Like much of eastern Iowa, this was Romney turf in 2008: He captured 31 percent here, 6 percentage points above his statewide average, while Huckabee won 26 percent, 8 points below his statewide performance.


Polk County

Polk County is Iowa’s most populous by a wide margin and its size alone makes it a critical battleground—the last four GOP caucus winners have all carried it. Home to Des Moines and the state capitol, candidates tend to make more appearances here than anywhere else in the state. There’s good reason for that approach: Polk cast more votes in the 2008 GOP caucuses than any other county and had the second highest turnout. With roughly a fifth of all ballots cast there, the outcome closely mirrored the statewide results


Pottawattamie County

This county is home to Council Bluffs, the second-largest city in western Iowa after Sioux City and situated in the Omaha media market. An important historic point on The Mormon Trail, Council Bluffs has a Mormon presence that could prove beneficial to Romney — he carried the county easily in 2008. It’s conservative turf, but not necessarily receptive to social conservatives — Huckabee ran more than 10 points behind his statewide average here and Terry Branstad won big over social conservative Bob Vander Plaats in the 2010 GOP governor’s primary. Turnout has been low here in recent caucuses: in the last four, the high water mark was 13 percent in 2008.

Scott County

This politically competitive Mississippi River county broke hard for the GOP in 2010 after a dry spell. Davenport, the state’s third-largest city, attracted a considerable amount of attention from the GOP field during the campaign, including Monday stops from Romney, Paul and Gingrich. Romney carried the county in 2008 with 31 percent to Huckabee’s 23 percent. He’ll need a similarly solid performance out of Scott County if he hopes to capture the state.

Sioux County

If Iowa social conservatives manage to unite behind a single candidate on Tuesday night, the results from this Republican stronghold in northwestern Iowa will show it clearly. The region has a heavy concentration of Christian conservatives: Huckabee blew out the doors here in 2008. Huckabee won 52 percent in Sioux County while Romney finished a distant third, and won 42 percent in neighboring Lyon County, where Romney also finished in third. (Gary Bauer also carried both counties in 2000). How conservative is Sioux County? It delivered a 72 percent to 23 percent win for Vander Plaats over Branstad in the 2010 GOP primary for governor—Branstad’s worst drubbing in the state. There’s a reason why Santorum spent the Sunday before the caucuses in Orange City and Rock Rapids.

Woodbury County

This is Republican turf, though not nearly as rock-ribbed as some of its neighbors. Home to the largest city in western Iowa — Sioux City — Woodbury County tends to go its own way when it comes to the GOP caucuses. It’s voted for the caucus loser in each of the last three contests: Pat Buchanan in 1996, Steve Forbes in 2000, Romney in 2008. Nevertheless, Santorum, Perry and Romney could be found here campaigning in the final three days.