jueves, 19 de enero de 2012

NBC/Marist: hay un antes y un después del debate

NBC News:
With two days until South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds a 10-point lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of the GOP contest in that state.

But a day after Monday night’s Republican debate – where Gingrich’s performance was considered strong and Romney’s uneven – the poll also shows the former speaker gaining considerable ground on the GOP frontrunner.

Overall in the two-day survey – conducted Monday and Tuesday – Romney gets the support of 34 percent of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina, including those who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate.

He’s followed by Gingrich at 24 percent, Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 16 percent, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 14 percent, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 4 percent.

Yet the numbers are strikingly different before and after the debate on Monday, when Romney stumbled over whether he would release his tax records (he later said he would do so in April). Also in that outing, Gingrich drew cheers – and even a standing ovation from some – in response to a question about whether his rhetoric about food stamps and janitorial work for poor children was racially insensitive.

(...) On Monday before the debate, Romney led Gingrich in the poll by 15 points, 37 percent to 22 percent. But on Tuesday, that advantage narrowed to just five points, 31 percent to 26 percent.

“The numbers on Tuesday were very different than the numbers on Monday,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.

And they were especially different among the most conservative segments of the GOP electorate in South Carolina.

On Monday, Gingrich held a five-point lead over Romney among those describing themselves as “very conservative,” 32 percent to 27 percent, with Santorum getting 24 percent.

But the next day, Gingrich’s percentage with this group jumped up to 35 percent, Santorum’s declined to 20 percent and Romney’s sunk to 19 percent.

Among Tea Party supporters on Monday, Romney edged Gingrich, 35 percent to 27 percent. But on Tuesday, the numbers flipped – with Gingrich at 34 percent and Romney at 27 percent.