miércoles, 18 de enero de 2012

¿Newt-mentum?



First Read:
*** Newt-mentum returns? There are some increasing signs -- though all of it anecdotal for now -- that Newt Gingrich is gaining some momentum three days before the South Carolina primary. First was his strong debate performance on Monday, from which his campaign cut a new TV ad. Second, the Romney campaign today is holding a conference call (featuring former Sen. Jim Talent and former Rep. Susan Molinari) with the sole purpose of hitting Gingrich, and we haven’t seen one of those from the Romney camp since Iowa. And third, Sarah Palin sort of endorsed Gingrich last night, saying per NBC’s Alex Moe: “If I had to vote in South Carolina, in order to keep this thing going, I’d vote for Newt and I would want this to continue.” Gingrich’s top spokesman responded to the Palin news this way: “We think it’s a pretty darn clear call to arms.” Is Newt-mentum for real? We’ll find out tomorrow morning from our brand-new NBC-Marist poll of South Carolina.

*** Gingrich’s two challenges: time and math: Of course, one challenge Gingrich faces is time; there are just three days to go until Saturday’s primary. And the other challenge is the math. It is very possible for Romney to win South Carolina with just 31% or 32% of the vote. That becomes very possible if Ron Paul and Rick Santorum both get about 15%, if Rick Perry gets close to 10%, and if Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, and Herman Cain (who are still on the ballot) get a combined 4% or 5%. But if those percentages are lower, then Romney is forced to win with 34% or 35%.

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