PPP: ligera ventaja de Romney en SC; Paul subiendo

Public Policy Polling:

Mitt Romney continues to hold a modest lead in South Carolina's Republican primary for President. He's at 29% to 24% for Newt Gingrich, 15% for Ron Paul, 14% for Rick Santorum, 6% for Rick Perry, 5% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Buddy Roemer.

Things haven't changed too much at the top in the last week. Romney is down 1 point from his pre-New Hampshire standing, while Gingrich has gained a point. There's more movement in the middle. Paul has gained 6 points to move into 3rd place, while Santorum has dropped by 5 points. Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman have each picked up a single point and remain in 5th and 6th place respectively.

Why is Romney winning South Carolina? Voters there are overwhelmingly focused on the economy this year and that's working to his advantage. 39% say jobs and the economy are their top issue, closely followed by 34% who pick government spending and reducing the debt. Asked who they trust most on economic issues 35% pick Romney to 25% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, and 10 for Santorum. And despite the attacks on it this week Romney's business background is an asset for him. 58% have a favorable opinion of his record in business to just 27% with a negative view of it.

Another reason Romney's doing well and that Santorum's doing poorly is that social issues just aren't at the front of voters' minds this year...and Romney's neutralizing him on that front anyway. Just 4% of voters say that's their top concern this year. And when it comes to the candidate voters trust most on social issues Santorum only beats Romney 23-21 with Gingrich at 19% and Paul at 14%. Romney's also basically running even with evangelicals, getting 27% to 28% for Gingrich and 17% for Santorum. It's a pretty safe bet that he's going to win the state if he can maintain that standing. His religion continues not to be too much of an issue with only 23% of voters saying they'd be uncomfortable with a Mormon as President.

Three other reasons Romney continues to be the favorite in South Carolina:

-South Carolinians, more so than we've found in New Hampshire and Iowa, are concerned about electability. 50% say they're most concerned about a candidate's ability to beat Barack Obama, while 37% place a bigger priority on the candidate's positions on the issues. New Hampshire voters were more concerned about issue stances by a 55-37 margin on that question and Iowa voters were by a 54/31 spread. The more voters care about electability, the better Romney's chances are and he leads Gingrich 35-27 with those folks.

-There's a growing sense of inevitability that Romney will win the nomination. 46% think he'll get the nod to 16% for Gingrich with no one else even hitting double digits...voters generally like to pick a winner and there's a very strong feeling in South Carolina that will be Romney.

-South Carolina is likely to have an older electorate than both Iowa and New Hampshire did, and Romney's greatest strength continues to be with senior citizens. He's up 35-25 on Gingrich with them and we project that they will make up almost 30% of the vote.