miércoles, 4 de enero de 2012

Qué se puede esperar de Santorum en New Hampshire

First Read:
*** Measuring Santorum’s New Hampshire bounce: How much can Santorum benefit in New Hampshire with his virtual tie for first in Iowa? Traditionally, the top-three finishers in Iowa haven’t experienced much of a boost – just 3 points jump on average from the last New Hampshire poll before the Iowa caucuses to the actual New Hampshire result. But the 1996 Republican presidential primary might be instructive (another year when a fairly weak front-runner (Bob Dole) was running for the second time and against a Democratic incumbent in the general election.)

In 1996, Pat Buchanan finished second in Iowa and jumped 12 points in New Hampshire to win with 27%. Sen. Lamar Alexander, who faced questions of viability in the Granite State and was polling at just 9%, got a 14-point bounce and finished a very close third with 23%. The last Suffolk tracking poll showed Santorum at just 5% in New Hampshire, so if he gets the 12-to-14 point Buchanan-Alexander bounce, he could finish with 17%-21% -- still far short of what Romney is expected to get.

No hay comentarios: