Cómo interpretar una victoria de Romney en función de las expectativas

John Heilemann:

So as the results roll in tonight, keep in mind the following facts:

Just as it was in 2008, the Republican race in New Hampshire is effectively a six-way affair, so the comparison to 2012 in terms of Romney's percentage of the vote will be apples-to-apples.

Last time, he finished in second place with 31.6 percent of the vote, which put him 5.5 points behind John McCain.

Romney led by double digits in virtually every public poll conducted in 2011.

Set against those precedents, if Romney ends up with over 40 percent of the vote and a healthy double-digit win, it will be seen as an unequivocal triumph.

At the other extreme, if he finishes with less than 31 percent and/or a mere single-digit win, it will be interpreted as a clear disappointment, maybe even as a kind of defeat. Any result that falls in between those poles will be read more ambiguously, though my sense of the over-under at this point is a double-digit win with 36 percent — a five-point improvement on 2008.

Above that, Romney will get his bump and head into South Carolina with the wind blowing firmly at his back. Below that, he will not, and the sense of his vulnerability will turn the contest in the Palmetto State into even more of a free-for-all than it already promises to be — which is a scary, scary thought.