Ranking de The Iowa Republican

Craig Robinson, editor de The Iowa Republican, ha elaborado un ranking de candidatos para el Caucus de Iowa, basado en su potencial y en lo que han hecho en el estado. Coloca a Gingrich en cabeza. Asume que Huckabee y Palin no se presentan.

(...) Number One: Newt Gingrich

Anyone who underestimates Gingrich does so at his or her own peril. Gingrich seems to be built for the type of campaigning that the caucuses require. His knowledge of issues and the endless policy proposals that he has developed over years make him better prepared to do the one-on-one campaigning in Iowa than any of his likely opponents. These traits will also benefit him in the numerous presidential debates that will take place between now and the caucuses.

Number Two: Michele Bachmann

The number two spot might seem a little high for a candidate that only began to flirt with a caucus run about a month ago, but Bachmann is a unique candidate. Unlike the other candidates on this list, Bachmann will appeal to both social conservatives and tea party activists. If she runs, it’s easy to see her doing really well in Iowa. She has proven herself to be an astute fundraiser. She raised $13.2 million in 2010. That’s as much as Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, and Duncan Hunter raised for their 2008 presidential campaigns combined. It’s also almost as much as Huckabee raised for his entire campaign. That figure is also more that Speaker John Boehner raised in for his congressional campaign in the 2010 cycle.

Number Three: Tim Pawlenty

While Iowans are comfortable with him and his Midwest roots allow him to relate well with Iowans, Pawlenty lacks a natural caucus constituency that is necessary if you want to win Iowa. In many ways, Pawlenty should appeal to most caucus goers. He’s pro-life, a proven tax cutter, and has shown the ability to be successful in a state that is difficult for Republicans. Yet, he doesn’t own the pro-life issues like a candidate like Rick Santorum does, he’s not going to be the big idea guy like Newt Gingrich will be, and he can’t take credit for the RGA’s 2010 victories like Haley Barbour will. You get the picture.

Number Four: Mitt Romney

Romney invested millions of dollars and countless hours in Iowa during his 2008 campaign. His early Iowa strategy not only worked, it worked extremely well. Romney went from being a second tier candidate in late 2006 and early 2007, to a formidable challenger in the summer, to the national frontrunner by the fall. Romney’s problem was that he peaked too early. As we all know, Romney suffered a big loss in Iowa to Mike Huckabee, which was followed by a loss to John McCain New Hampshire.

Number Five: Rick Santorum

Keep an eye on Rick Santorum. The way that the 2012 presidential field is shaping up, Santorum may find himself with very little competition when it comes to signing up Iowa’s numerous social conservative voters. There will be a huge void created if Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin don’t run in 2012, and those votes could easily go to a candidate like Santorum.

Number Six: Ron Paul

Paul finished fifth in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, but only a few thousand votes behind John McCain and Fred Thompson. Had Paul been better organized and focused on building a grassroots caucus mechanism sooner, it’s likely that he could have finished in the top three, which would have been a huge boost for his campaign.

Number Seven: Haley Barbour

Besides Speaker of the House John Boehner, it would be hard to find another Republican who had a better night on November 2nd than Haley Barbour did as the head of the Republican Governors Association (RGA). Under Barbour’s guidance, the RGA invested millions of dollars in races all across the county and celebrated many victories.

Number Eight: Mitch Daniels

His proposed truce on social issues didn’t set will with social conservatives. Even thought Daniels has a solid prolife record, his call for a truce has put such a sour taste in the mouths of those who have been fighting for life and traditional marriage that Daniels is going to be treated like he’s a pro-choice candidate. To some extent, this was the case for Ron Paul in 2008, who’s anti-war foreign policy made some people believe that he was liberal on social issues.

Number Nine: John Thune

There is little doubt that Iowa caucus goers will be attracted to his values and demeanor. It also doesn’t hurt that he looks like he comes out of central casting. He just looks like what you think a president should look like. While Thune has a lot of things going for him, he voted for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in the fall of 2008. It is very likely that Thune will be the only candidate to have voted for TARP. That’s not a position that’s going to endear one’s self with conservatives and tea party activists in Iowa.

Number Ten: Herman Cain

Even though it’s hard to see a scenario where Cain wins the Iowa caucuses, it doesn’t take much of an imagination to see him making a impact in them. Candidates with no prior elected experience have done well in the Iowa caucuses. Pat Robertson (1988), Pat Buchanan (1996), and Steve Forbes (2000) each took home second place finishes in the caucuses. In fact, in 2000, 53 percent of the caucus vote went to candidates that had never held elected office (Forbes, Alan Keyes, and Gary Bauer). (...)